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Originally Posted by Captainhawk1
I have no reason to dispute Harris' findings because simply put, Harris doesn't make mistakes and their information is consistent with other market research. It's very easy to figure out why HD-DVD outsold Blu Ray/PS3: they're still available (everywhere online), they're dirt cheap and so is the media. Also, when the announcement was made that the format was being dropped by Toshiba, the machines were selling in retail stores for as low $49. Expect those sales numbers to go down within the next year, obviously.
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People can't buy what is no longer in production. Saying things like "HD-DVD has grown in demand as much as Blu-ray" is misleading. HD-DVD isn't produced anymore and never will be, people only buy it because it's cheap and possibly because they don't know the format has been discontinued.
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But knock yourself out, just keep dismissing the stats and the professionals who provided them, keep manipulating the numbers and convincing yourselves that there's this HUGE growth in demand for Blu Ray that really doesn't exist.
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The word "huge" makes it relative, but there has been noticeable growth, as the link in the OP even admits despite it trying to lean in HD-DVD's favor.
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Blu Ray has a lot of problems right now. The price of the machines is still at least $200
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Not exactly. Low end models can be bought for as low as ~130 I believe (there was a news post on the front page of this site not long ago about one at Walmart), and personally, I got a player on a deal at Amazon not long ago for ~125 bucks. Samsung, if I recall, 2.0 enabled and capable of streaming Netflix and Pandora I think too. Got it for a gift for someone, so I'm not actually that intimately familiar with its features. But I can tell you this: it's a lot better than the player I got for ~300 back in early fall of last year.
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the media still costs more than standard DVD
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The media will ALWAYS cost more. Even as Blu-ray prices have been falling, DVD prices will also fall. This happened with VHS and DVD as well. DVD was always more expensive than VHS, but as DVD came down to reasonable prices, VHS fell down into dirt prices until it eventually was discontinued.
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in order to truly experience its benefits you need a 1080p HD TV of 50" or bigger
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Not at all true. Something around 30 inches with 720p still has something to gain by using an HD native source. It's not full benefit, but people don't even make full benefit of their DVDs: DVDs have surround sound on them but most people just use their TV's built in stereo.
"Full benefit" is also subjective. Some might feel that a person is only making "full benefit" if they have 5k invested in a surround sound system, others might feel that it's only achieved if watched on a 100+ inch constant height front projection system. Personally, I feel that as long as the person is satisfied with what they have, it's worth it for them. I've only got a 42 inch screen, but I still know that my Blu-rays look a lot better than my DVDs, even if I'm not yet making
full use of the audio or picture available to me.
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(only 42% have a TV above 36" and only 47% have an HD TV, period)
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These numbers sound pretty accurate so I won't try to contest it, but you neglect to notice that these numbers are also on the rise. As people buy new TVs, they buy larger TVs, and are less likely to buy SD sets (especially with the analog to digital thing happening, people are going to lean toward digital sets, which are often HD native).
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oh and did I mention that we're in the middle of the worst recession in 70 years?
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It's not as bad as you make it sound, and even despite the recession, there is still growth in Blu-ray sales and HDTV market penetration.
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Let me put this into perspective for you from my point of view as an individual consumer with a household income around $75K: I love Blu Ray but when I choose to buy a film I have to consider the fact that I only have one unit (my PS3) that I can play it on if I buy Blu Ray. You see, like most people, I have a family to consider and they don't always want to watch a movie in the family room on the 65" DLP. More often than not, my wife has both kids in bed with her (age 3 months and almost 3 years) or my three-year old wants to watch a movie in the upstairs bonus room, or the downstairs guest room or in her bedroom, or on her Disney Princess portable DVD player. So, needless to say I'm not going to go out and buy 5 more Blu Ray players at a minimum of $200 each to accommodate Blu Ray when the $30 DVD players will do the job.
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That's your problem. If you don't like it, don't buy Blu-ray, but this situation being the case in many households hasn't stopped the format from growing and expanding.
And as it grows and expands, prices will come down and players will become more ubiquitous. Give it some time and you'll be able to have a portable BD player for trips, keep a BD player in your kids' room. It'll be fine in time.
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I'm going to point this out again: when DVD came around, people didn't have to upgrade their TV's to experience the enhanced picture benefit over VHS and the format still took 5 years to catch on (in an up economy, no less, with no comparable new competition when the format first hit the market).
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People don't need to upgrade their TV to enjoy Blu-ray. There might be little to no noticeable advantage to going BD without a nice, big TV, but they can still enjoy it and build a collection in the mean time.
By the way, by many accounts, Blu-ray is growing faster in its first few years than DVD did during its first few years. By other accounts, it's not as fast, but still is showing strong market growth. Blu-ray has got about 3 years under its belt now, and with software penetration around 15% for new releases I think that's just fine.
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Blu Ray requires the consumer to have an upgraded display to appreciate all of its benefits (visually that is... I'm not even touching the audio) because frankly, the benefits over DVD are limited without the proper display and if you don't have the proper display those minimal benefits do not justify upgrading to Blu Ray for most people.
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People planning on buying into Blu-ray in the long run might do well to switch earlier to avoid having to rebuy titles (assuming they are the type of person who WOULD rebuy titles), but you're right. Blu-ray on a small, SD screen without surround sound doesn't offer much benefit. Better bitrates and online capabilities don't mean much. Normally I'd say that the higher bitrates might be worth it, but yeah, on a small SD screen it really just doesn't matter that much.
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What you folks simply can't seem to get through your heads is that people simply do not see the benefit of Blu Ray and do not give a crap about it right now. Most of the people I see posting on this board fall either into the category of limitless disposable income and home theater setups that can go into the tens of thousands of dollars or single guys who have no families and no real bills. It's two opposite ends of the spectrum completely and they don't represent the majority of consumers.
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You're right. Blu-ray is still in the early adopter period, but that doesn't mean there isn't growth and that doesn't mean that it won't be around long enough for it to catch on fully in the mainstream.
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Like it or not, Blu Ray is quite niche right now and you can laugh and dispute it all you want and flame me (which you folks no doubt will as that's your MO when confronted with facts that don't coincide with your fantasies) and dismiss me but the numbers are what they are.
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I don't think niche is the right word, because that implies lack of growth, but yeah it is still a relatively small piece of the market right now. Nowhere near as small as things like laserdisc made though.
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The reality is, you folks may know a little about Blu Ray but you don't know jack about marketing or market research. Why do you think that you know better than Harris?
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Actually, there's a thread around here that reports market penetration every week for individual titles compared to their DVD counterparts. Catalog titles often are up around 60% or higher, while new release action flicks tend to peak around 20% (and new release of other sorts are around like 10% top I think).
So when people say things like "Blu-ray isn't showing growth", they are definitely wrong. When people say "this discontinued product is showing growth" they are wrong. A format cannot grow if it is dead, and that is what is implied in this thing.
edit: @ above: 2500 is a good sample size. I'd say that the problem is in their numbers reporting, not in their data gathering.
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