Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[bluflu]

I fail to see the doom and gloom. Kind of seems to be stating the obvious. I think the problem is people expected Blu-ray to make easy work of DVD like Blu-ray did to HD DVD. It's only been about a year since WB released the last HD DVD disc, plus the hardware and discs are still available cheap. I wouldn't call certain BD titles selling up to 20% of their DVD counterpart doomed.

[PS3_gamer/viewer7]

Forgive me if I'm missed something but it seems like the poll did not include upconverting players. Yeah, a lot of people that I have met have said the following:

"What's the difference if they are both in HD?"
"I would be getting the same quality in picture and sound?"

We have all noticed the differences in picture and sound. I'm sorry to say this but anybody who cannot see the difference is not looking very closely.

People I know have also confused HD DVD and Blu-Ray with upconverters. Considering the economy, people are going for those cheap DVD players that cost around $100-$150. Movies are also expensive. But supply has to meet demand before prices drop as we all know. I do not know what to say about this poll.

We Americans always seem so unsure of the things around us.

[kernel_thai]

I dont know anything about what a good sample size or what kind of demographic was covered. Where I see the results being skewed is the assumption that they r playing HD-DVDs on these machines. A better survey would show HD-DVD sales compared with Blu-rays. What these numbers show me is a lot of smart people saw a $300 plus dvd player marked down to $50 and grabbed it. For that money they would make an excellent upscaling DVD player. Additionally people can pick up HD DVD for almost nothing and play them as well if they chose. I bet if there had been a question on the survey about what they play in the HD DVD player, most would have said DVDs.

[doctorD]

Seeing this article has caused me to want to watch this clip again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frZTf3mX97c

All I can say is

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by crackinhedz

you need at least a 10% random sample of any population to hold any weight. 2500 is only 10% of 25,000. Does not work. (other requirements also needed to be met first before any conclusion could be considered un-biased)

How many people are in the USA? or how many people own HDTV's? etc

...statistical methods 101.

You really believe that?

So for a poll to have reasonable margin of error and still maintain quality information about the entire nation, there would need to be 30,000,000 individuals polled? Do me a quick favor and do a quick perusal of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

You don't have to read it completely, just take a look at the first paragraph and the graphics to the immediate right. To be blunt, it indicates a sample size of 2401 should have a margin of error of 2% (again, assuming a representative sample). And last time I checked 2400 is a lot less than 30,000,000, and is actually right around the polled number for this piece.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

The sample size, margin of error, pre registered respondent pool , demographic match and methodology all were OK for this survey. What they screwed up was the question detail and lack of knowledge of the specific product category to realize that "HD DVD" could be confused with the Toshiba based HD DVD players and with the category of hardware marketed as high definition upconverting DVD players that through HDMI can output 1080 output from DVDs. It seems clear that no one with close industry knowledge reviewed the survey before it was administered and the methodology of the Harris Interactive survey is that it is self administered so no clues come in to the pollsters while it is being administered. The person who wrote the findings and the press release also did not have enough industry knowledge to realize the HD DVD part of his write up was not accurate and in error. Some other parts of the survey like the tendency of existing Blu-ray owners to buy Blu-ray based on price are probably accurate enough but the HD DVD findings and market penetration are silly as their were never that many HD DVD players produced.

[rickantel]

GEE WILLIGGERS IM MY OWN GRANDPA !!!!!!!

[HAMP]

What is getting me is the Poll question:

(2008): "Knowing that Blu-ray is the unofficial winner of the high-definition DVD format way, how likely are you to purchase a Blu-ray disc player within the next year?"
Buuut It is the winner!!!!

[X400]

Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between April 13 and 21, 2009, among 2,401 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

think that just about dismisses this poll

[R3P0]

Originally Posted by neos_peace

Apparantly who ever this perosn writng this isn't very bright.

correct me if I'm worn gbut did they STOP making HDDVD's and their players in 2008 or so. which mean we havn't seen any new HDDVD's or players available to the average consumer. so how is it that the sales numbers have gotten better. could someone explain this one to me. heck like was mentioned earlier, their practically giveing them away.

Maybe the sales numbers include Ebay purchases

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by PS3_gamer/viewer7

Forgive me if I'm missed something but it seems like the poll did not include upconverting players. Yeah, a lot of people that I have met have said the following:

It's not clear what it included.

Some people are speculating that "HD DVD" means anything people perceive to be HD from a disc, which would include Blu-ray, HD DVD, and HD upscaling.

I can't see how they can conclude anything about "Blu-ray" if people are possibly calling it "HD DVD"

If I poll 1000 people and ask them where they live and nobody says "North America", I can't conclude nobody lives in North America.

Gary

[dadkins]

Originally Posted by PS3_gamer/viewer7

Forgive me if I'm missed something but it seems like the poll did not include upconverting players. Yeah, a lot of people that I have met have said the following:

"What's the difference if they are both in HD?"
"I would be getting the same quality in picture and sound?"

Another reason I'm glad I have BD laptops.
I can take one with me and connect to *their* HDTV and show them what a BD looks like on their very own HDTV.

A friend just down the street is a proud PS3 owner now that he has "Seen the Light".

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

It's not clear what it included.

Some people are speculating that "HD DVD" means anything people perceive to be HD from a disc, which would include Blu-ray, HD DVD, and HD upscaling.

I can't see how they can conclude anything about "Blu-ray" if people are possibly calling it "HD DVD"

If I poll 1000 people and ask them where they live and nobody says "North America", I can't conclude nobody lives in North America.

Gary

that is the funniest thing about it, even though the information makes 0 sense, people are debating if it is valid. I don't know if the only people that took the poll where HD DVD fan boys, I don't know if it was because they asked a bunch of dumb people that don't know what HD DVD is and they think DVD on an HD set is HD DVD, I don't know if it is because the guy pulled the numbers from his a$$, but the simple fact that the results cannot be right should be enough for anyone to realize there is something wrong with it.

[bluflu]

Originally Posted by crackinhedz

...arguing about it now is futile.

Reminds me of the following YouTube video from the movie "HD DVD Attempts A Comeback", starring Deebo as Blu-ray, Homie D. Punk as HD DVD, Chris Tucker as Sony, and The Old Man as Microsoft.

NSFW

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KSdZyvvhoM

[Steven_qt]

Corporate Advocates responds to the Harris Interactive survey.

Source: http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks-take/harris-interactive-survey-gets-slammed

As you may have seen, there has been some recent reporting on the results of a Harris Interactive survey that arrived at some highly questionable findings on the number of Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD players currently in US households. By way of background, the recent Harris Interactive poll asked consumers whether they owned an HD DVD player, a Blu-ray Disc player, a PS3, etc. The survey has garnered some media attention despite the fact that, according to analyst groups that regularly track Blu-ray Disc hardware sales (as well as HD DVD sales before the format was pulled from the market), the survey results don't square with the actual shipping and sales numbers.

Given the grossly inaccurate results with respect to HD DVD sales (many times greater than those previously reported by the HD DVD group itself), and given that the sales-based numbers and the dramatic increase in Blu-ray Disc hardware and software sales clearly indicate that the format has in fact reached critical mass (surpassing even DVD penetration at the same point in DVD's lifespan), we thought it important to take a moment to provide you with actual data based on manufacturers' shipments and retail sales.

The 2008 sales data and the latest 2009 projections from Adams Media Research are as follows:

* As of December 31, 2008, 2.7% of US TV homes had a Blu-ray Disc set top player, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 6.2% of US TV homes (6.1% and 11.0%, respectively, of HDTV homes)
* As of December 31, 2008, 5.6% of US TV homes had a PS3, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 10.0% of US homes (12.5% and 17.6%, respectively, of HDTV homes).
* As of December 31, 2008 7.8% of US TV homes had either a Blu-ray Disc set top player, a PS3 or both, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 14.8% of US TV homes (17.5% and 26%, respectively, of HDTV homes).
* As of December 31, 2008 0.3% of US TV homes had an HD DVD set top player, and by the end of 2009, that number will have shrunk to 0.2% of US homes (0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, of HDTV homes).


The estimates reported by Adams Media Research are based on its research into actual manufacturer shipments to retail and actual retail sales to consumers, and are significantly different than the survey-based numbers reported by Harris. In fact, the Harris numbers don't even square with the numbers reported by the HD DVD Promotions Group toward the end of that format's lifespan. As of the end of 2007, some 50 days before the announcement that the HD DVD format would be discontinued, the HD DVD Promotions Group was reporting set top sales of less than 1 million units….nowhere near the 9% of households that Harris claims based on its survey results.

As for the discrepancy between the survey results and the actual data, Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research notes:
"The media industry has long known you can't trust the average survey respondent to correctly identify the high-tech devices in their homes; this finding suggesting that HD DVD player penetration grew from 6% to 9% in the period since the Blu-ray victory in the format war simply can't be right. Our research on shipments and retail sales of players suggests that some 340,000 homes had an HD-DVD player by the end of 2008 v. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player, and 9 million homes with either a dedicated player, a PS3 or both. So far, despite the recession, sales this year put dedicated Blu-ray players on track to be in 7.2 million homes by year's end, with the number of homes having a BD-Player, a PS3, or both growing to 17.1 million. Meanwhile, HD DVD machines are long gone from store shelves and household penetration is shrinking dramatically. By way of comparison to what had been the most successful format launch in consumer electronics history, at the same point in DVD’s lifespan (four years in, at the end of 2000), DVD-enabled homes (set-tops or game machines) numbered 13.7 million”

[FinalEvangelion]

Originally Posted by Steven_qt

Corporate Advocates responds to the Harris Interactive survey.

Source: http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks-take/harris-interactive-survey-gets-slammed

All I have to say, is LOL!!!.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Tom Adams

The media industry has long known you can't trust the average survey respondent to correctly identify the high-tech devices in their homes; this finding suggesting that HD DVD player penetration grew from 6% to 9% in the period since the Blu-ray victory in the format war simply can't be right. Our research on shipments and retail sales of players suggests that some 340,000 homes had an HD-DVD player by the end of 2008 v. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player, and 9 million homes with either a dedicated player, a PS3 or both. So far, despite the recession, sales this year put dedicated Blu-ray players on track to be in 7.2 million homes by year's end, with the number of homes having a BD-Player, a PS3, or both growing to 17.1 million. Meanwhile, HD DVD machines are long gone from store shelves and household penetration is shrinking dramatically. By way of comparison to what had been the most successful format launch in consumer electronics history, at the same point in DVD’s lifespan (four years in, at the end of 2000), DVD-enabled homes (set-tops or game machines) numbered 13.7 million

"Four years in" isn't right at all:

Blu-ray launched in June 2006. That makes it 2.5 years to the end of 2008.
DVD launched in March 1997. To the end of 2000 would make it 3.5 years.

Frequently people also measure DVD from the full launch in the fall of 1997, which would make it only three years. But, then even though Blu-ray didn't have an official soft launch, it did effectively have one driven by HD DVD's launch and offering only a single player (Samsung P1000) from the entire BDA.

The real launch of Blu-ray was the fall of 2006.

But looking at the numbers:

DVD (1996 - late 2000): 13.7 million
Blu-ray (June 2006 - end 2008): 9 million

Now, consider:

(1) A much more visible and longer lasting format war (how many even know there was one for DVD v. DIVX?)

(2) In late 2000 the US was in one of the great bull markets of all time. At the end of 2008 we were in an economic meltdown and the US had been, according to some, in a technical recession since late 2007.

But, I think Tom's point was that while DVD was considered a massive success, Blu-ray despite possibly beating DVD's numbers is constantly faced with accusations of failure.

The reason, of course, is that everyone was on board with DVD. But Blu-ray has lots of competitors that want to see it fail, and are determined to get as many stories out there as they can that it is failing.

Nothing has really changed. The war never ended. The enemy simply changed. Or changed what it was offering as the alternative.

Gary

[4K display]

At this stage, including HD DVD in any kind of poll = FAIL!!

Embarrassing for Harris..

[ObiTrentKenobi]

Captainhawk1
<Condensed Quote>
"...The reality is, you folks may know a little about Blu Ray but you don't know jack about marketing or market research. Why do you think that you know better than Harris?"

Well Mr Capatinhawk 1 (aka employee of Harris),
Pretty bold statements to members of a bluray forum...
but i'll cut to the chase. Do you know where these polls were actually conducted? They were conducted online... therefore; true ages, genders, incomes, and any other answer can seriously be thrown out as innacurate. Online polls are unscientific for many reasons. You, who obviously works for Harris and/or is a HD-DVD buyer yourself, should know this if you are over the age of 10.

This is from the final page of the Harris Report
"This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between April 13 and 21, 2009, among 2,401 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated."

What??? They admit errors can be made? Wow... And, they took out all the answers from minors, so, how many adults exactly does that leave the poll? We aren't informed of that.

But, here is the biggest flaw... WHERE WAS THE POLL POSTED ONLINE?? How were the people notified/asked to take the poll? Was there a link on an HD-DVD Forum???????? Was it posted on a travel booking site???????? Was it sent by spam to random people's email addresses??????? was it sent to people who purchased a magazine subscription to Cabela's??????? This all matters.

Online Polls (including ones on Bluray.com and walmart.com or wherever) can be *and probably are* extremely innacurate.

Such a D-Bag.

[richieb1971]

Blu ray appeals the to the techie/gamer type crowd. Those who just want to watch movies would watch it on VHS if they could.

The wars and techno babble mean nothing. If blu ray is doomed its because of its price point and has nothing to do with any competition out there at this time. Sony still make DVD upscaling players so there is still a market for it.

At this point in time, everything priced is going south. From the HDTV to the players itself, the movies that cost $30 yesteryear cost $10 today. HDTV is almost ready for the masses, but it needs to have everything built in. Firmwares and such should be brought to an end now, they have had 2+ years to sort the end spec out. People like my mom just want to pop a disc in the machine and not worry about BDlive compatibility BS.

If the disc must have firmware updates for certain features they should be PS3 exclusive.