Netflix Turns Focus Back to Disc

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by DigitalHoarder

Could this explain why they took Whale Wars Season 2 off Instant Queue? 1st and 3rd season remain, which is a bit weird. I was in the middle of the 2nd and it surely doesn't help that Season 3, through 6 episodes now, has the episodes out of order.

No, it's because Animal Planet's license for shows ran out (darn, lost Planet's Funniest Animals with it )--
Although they may be back and re-licensed in a month or two--The streams are coming from TLC's and AP's websites, not Netflix, so it's not like the randomly licensed StarzPlay movies that come and go with the seasons.

(And even then, the order is packaged in the way that the studio's DVD boxsets arrange them, which is not always in sequence.)

[Steedeel]

pro-bassoonist seems to be talking the most sense, not just on this topic but several. Couldn't agree more with the quality issue. Give me Bluray every time. There seems to be a lack of the usual suspects on this particular topic (well, apart from zoetmb) what a suprise!

[ZoetMB]

Not sure what the implication of my name mention is, but just to be clear, I totally agree that BD provides that best quality. And there's always going to be some people who want the best quality (or at least the best quality they can afford.) And I count myself in that category.

BUT...never make the mistake of projecting your own needs/desires onto the entire market. Time and time again, the market has made it clear that it cares about convenience over quality, MP3 being the prime example. And especially younger people have made it clear that they have no problem with streaming video on 3" smartphone screens and 10" pad screens regardless of the supposed quality issues. And as I've posted elsewhere, most of them are not even aware that their MP3s are in 2-channel stereo, never mind 5.1 or more. And we also know that even among big screen HDTV users, less than 2% (and that's not my number - I actually think it's less) have their screens calibrated. So IMO, the market cares little about high quality.

While I don't think it's an either/or situation and BD will continue to exist for at least the next 10 years, I think downloads will grow at a faster pace (BD sales are running only 10% over 2010) and will eventually dominate, regardless of quality issues. As I posted above, Netflix may have been a bit too optimistic about the speed of the transition from physical to download for their customers, but it's still going to happen.

[Clark Kent]

The elephant in the room is that the Hollywood studios do not want to license their better content to Netflix for streaming. The studios view Netflix as an unnecessary middleman taking profits that belong to the content owners. The movie studios saw what happened to the music industry and how Apple basically swindled them by quickly building the download market. Netflix's current business model largely depends on the whim of the bigger studios, and sooner or later Hollywood will step in themselves.

[Steedeel]

Zoe, i referred to you because you are constantly beating the drums for streaming. you and Slick to name a couple. I agree that most consumers (not true film fans) are happy with lower quality. but i think the picture needs to be at least dvd quality. In most cases it is below par and who in their right minds would watch such bad quality on a large hdtv? There are many people testing out certain streaming services and deciding not to bother because the picture is unwatchable sometimes.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

The elephant in the room is that the Hollywood studios do not want to license their better content to Netflix for streaming. The studios view Netflix as an unnecessary middleman taking profits that belong to the content owners. The movie studios saw what happened to the music industry and how Apple basically swindled them by quickly building the download market. Netflix's current business model largely depends on the whim of the bigger studios, and sooner or later Hollywood will step in themselves.

Too right. Moving content distribution to digital doesn't exempt it from economics -- in particular, considerations of scale. It amazes me how few commentators/bloggers seem to have noticed this. The main reason Netflix and iTunes (for video) are around at all is that the volume of trade is puny. So it's suitable for little intermeddling boutiques. When it grows big it _will_ be rationalized -- middlemen will be cut.

Look to the big content players e.g. WHV to bypass Netflix et al. and start doing their own digital video distro once (in say 15-20 yrs) volumes are there. They will do their own digital distribution for precisely the same reason they do their own physical distribution -- it makes sense at a certain scale.

[Rblu-Dblu]

Originally Posted by EricJ

I, meanwhile, have learned to ACCEPT apologies.

(At the moment, I'm on streaming only to save money, but think we're seeing the pendulum swing back to the middle--
Streaming is easy, and hard-disk is comprehensive and "true" BD, but think that any one is going to "take over", and you're jumping to the wrong conclusions. If Netflix can see its Instant service as just a competitor to Hulu instead of a competitor to hard-disk, they're on the right track.)

Streaming may be good for some people but the whole time I had netflix I used it maybe two times to watch Futurama episodes. They basically forced streaming on me jacking up the price of the bluray rentals while lowering their selection of blurays. Then when I cancelled I practically got an email every other day begging me to come back for their $8 streaming or whatever it was. I joined Netflix to rent blurays not get some watered down streaming quality. Sorry if I cant accept their "apology". But I understand its a company and they can afford to alienate some customers if it means taking in new ones. Redbox is an easier and cheaper alternative for me.

[The_Donster]

It is always hilarious when topics like this appear on the forum how folks react. I know I'm in the minority because I'm a happy Netflix customer. The way I see it Netflix is no different than cable, only cheaper. I do both streaming and BD. I use the streaming for movies or shows I don't plan on purchasing and BD to see what I want to add to my collection. We actually went down to basic cable because of this. Our cable bill has dramatically dropped and now we're just paying for internet. While I'll admit the video quality of streaming isn't there now, it is hard to dismiss that it doesn't have a future in the media arena.

[blonde_devil]

I agree that the studios are part of the problem when it comes to netflix. They want people to spend on their dvd/bluray releases, not on streaming since they don't make as much money that way. Not sure about the States but part of the problem up here in Canada is the internet providers. There is a huge fight over internet charging but the thing a lot of people forget is that the companies providing internet also have a lot of on-demand stuff(Sasktel, Rogers, etc) including shows and netflix would cut into that business. That's why these companies put bandwidth restrictions and contort the data to make it look like companies like netflix are bad but they forget to mention that their on-demand stuff does the same thing, they just don't regulate it. Netflix doesn't do the disc thing here and I doubt they will. Netflix isn't perfect but it has been over 10 years since I seriously went to a video store (a few times in between but not like once a month or anything) and I only did the home delivery for about 6 months because it took forever to get what I wanted (that was probably 5 years or so ago). I even cut back my cable because there was nothing to watch but I am finding enough stuff right now on Netflix, even with its limited selection, to justify the $8 a month.

[bkbluray]

I haven't done Netflix for over a year now and I don't miss it all too much. It's much cheaper just to rent a Redbox movie about twice a month for me. The rest of the time, we watch either TV shows on DVD or Blu-ray's I own. I prefer to buy Blu-rays as well instead of rent if I'm going to watch them over and over and if they're relatively cheap (around $10).

Also, the emphasis on streaming turned me off as well.

I can definitely tell a quality difference between streaming and Blu-ray, especially in the audio department

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Zoe, i referred to you because you are constantly beating the drums for streaming. you and Slick to name a couple. I agree that most consumers (not true film fans) are happy with lower quality. but i think the picture needs to be at least dvd quality. In most cases it is below par and who in their right minds would watch such bad quality on a large hdtv? There are many people testing out certain streaming services and deciding not to bother because the picture is unwatchable sometimes.

Don't confuse my personal preference (Blu-ray) with business analysis. I'm not beating the drum for streaming. I'm beating the drum for an accurate reading of the market and not a fanboy interpretation of what one would like the market to be. And that analysis tells me that in the end, streaming and cloud services will be the bigger market regardless of any quality issues.

Likewise, I have a large LP collection, but when people talk about the "growing vinyl market", it's all hype as the vinyl market in 2010 was only 1.27% of all recorded music spending. Only 4 million LPs were sold in 2010. There used to be single albums that sold that much. Yes, units grew 25% over 2009, but it's a very small base to begin with. It's nothing more than a rounding error.

I have over 500 CDs and still purchase them, but when people try to defend "physical" by saying that CD is still the dominant format, that's ridiculous considering that CD sales have declined almost 75% since 1999. And in fact, CD units are now only 47.2% of the market. The U.S. recorded music industry as a whole in 2010 was 47% of its 1999 peak, not adjusting for inflation.

I do photography with a very advanced DSLR, but I have no doubt that the majority of photographs in the coming years will be taken with smartphone cameras.

I want a very powerful laptop (with an optical drive), but the market is definitely moving towards less local storage and actually away from computers as we knew them and towards Pads, except for the most complex applications.

The problem with sites like this is that people espouse opinions that are based on nothing but their own desires. People think being a fanboy is a substitute for business analysis. It's not. (Not that business analysts can't be wrong. But at least they can back up their opinions with numbers and/or history.)

[Steedeel]

Zoemt, you do beat the streaming drum. At every opportunity you get. I cannot recall many positive comments about bluray from yourself. The bottom line is none of us know what lies in the future. A new format might take over in a few years that would make it virtually impossible for downloads and streaming to catch up. You seem to be bitter, is this simply because you backed the wrong horse a few years back? Or do you get such good speeds where you live that you are not aware that there are many people who still cannot get broadband. Streaming is a twitchy technology, that at the moment cant be relied upon to provide a faultless experience. Will it change that much in ten years time? I doubt it.
Finally i do not study reports and pie charts, in fact i am leaving this forum because i have a life.

[eric oc]

Originally Posted by Rblu-Dblu

Too little too late. They irritated me with their insistent push on streaming. I will never go back to them.

I blame the studios more than netflix. They are doing what the record companies did and they didn't learn from what has happened to them. I for one am very happy with netflix. Granted i would love a lot more streaming and newer titles but the studios don't want to play ball. I use netflix for both streaming an BD disc. There are movies I have no interest in buying but would love the BD experience. So to me it is a win win. Can you name a company that does it better than netflix?

I understand all you want is BD titles, as i only want about 20 channels from direct tv. I am not going to cancel direct because i have to pay for 150 more channels that i don't want. That is until i can get everything streaming from either netflix, hulu or some other service.

[Steedeel]

Your post does not make sense zoe, sorry. Why talk about cameras? Or laptops? Of course computers will still be around years from now. What about image editors and it workers. Dslr cameras will also still br around and in use years from now. You talk utter crap.

[The_Donster]

I guess my question is, what does it matter if he beats the streaming drum? I honestly don't see what you are seeing though Steedeel. Remember this is a forum first and foremost and everyone is going to have differing opinions. You don't necessarily have to agree with them, but you should at least be respectful. For me, Netflix is a nice alternative to cable. I'm able to stream my toddler's favorite PBS shows and watch BD's that might not have made it to my collection otherwise. Hopefully you'll take a little time off and come back with a cooler head.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Don't confuse my personal preference (Blu-ray) with business analysis. I'm not beating the drum for streaming. I'm beating the drum for an accurate reading of the market and not a fanboy interpretation of what one would like the market to be. And that analysis tells me that in the end, streaming and cloud services will be the bigger market regardless of any quality issues.

Likewise, I have a large LP collection, but when people talk about the "growing vinyl market", it's all hype as the vinyl market in 2010 was only 1.27% of all recorded music spending. Only 4 million LPs were sold in 2010. There used to be single albums that sold that much. Yes, units grew 25% over 2009, but it's a very small base to begin with. It's nothing more than a rounding error.

I have over 500 CDs and still purchase them, but when people try to defend "physical" by saying that CD is still the dominant format, that's ridiculous considering that CD sales have declined almost 75% since 1999. And in fact, CD units are now only 47.2% of the market. The U.S. recorded music industry as a whole in 2010 was 47% of its 1999 peak, not adjusting for inflation.

I do photography with a very advanced DSLR, but I have no doubt that the majority of photographs in the coming years will be taken with smartphone cameras.

I want a very powerful laptop (with an optical drive), but the market is definitely moving towards less local storage and actually away from computers as we knew them and towards Pads, except for the most complex applications.

The problem with sites like this is that people espouse opinions that are based on nothing but their own desires. People think being a fanboy is a substitute for business analysis. It's not. (Not that business analysts can't be wrong. But at least they can back up their opinions with numbers and/or history.)

I enjoy your comments/analysis so I would like to make a couple of points.

1. If you were reading the market accurately then you would realize that one of the biggest issues that any non-physical alternative would face is fragmentation. In other words, there has to be unity amongst content owners and the service that would deliver it (the content). Thus far such has not been achieved. Ultraviolet is likely to have relevance there, but I don't see the likes of Netflix relying on Ultraviolet to sustain their business because A-grade content will continue to be restricted.

2. It is a fanboy interpretation...to believe that the market will morph into a virtual market where any content is available for downloading/streaming. As Mr. Dunn has noted, it won't happen. I am also going to add here that only someone who has zero knowledge of the distribution system could begin to imagine that a virtual market can replicate what the OD market has to offer. Period.

3. Your analogy with the music market is irrelevant in this discussion - for the same reason(s) comparing Blu-ray's performance to SDVD's maturation cycle makes little sense. I see various kids arguing on other forums that because Blu-ray "won't/can't" replicate SDVD's catalog library the format is a failure. Again, only a very naive person could come to such a conclusion, considering the fact that SDVD never replicated VHS's catalog library. In other words, you could draw some parallels, but you cannot judge the market while taking into account a market environment that simply does not exist. Unfortunately, this is precisely what you have done.

4. The problem with people who "see" the future is that in most cases they don't understand the market. The ones who do, like Mr. Dunn, have a very different view and grasp of he developments currently underway.

I don't think there is anyone who would argue against the fact that streaming/downloading will be explored by the studios, to some degree, because supposedly there is some money to be made there. What I am afraid a lot of people do not realize is that the business model that has been in place is unlikely to be changed; it is more likely to be restructured, at some point in the future, when there is a consensus that it makes sense financially to do so. Furthermore, this will be done under the content owners' conditions, not under the conditions dictated by delivery businesses such as Netflix. And even then, physical media will have a key role. Again, this was made very clear by Mr. Dunn when he addressed content devaluation.

At the end of the day, however, physical media is here to stay, and anyone believing that the OD market is likely to disappear in a foreseeable future is simply being misled to believe so by people who do not understand the forces that control it.

Pro-B

[RonSwanson]

Originally Posted by Rblu-Dblu

Too little too late. They irritated me with their insistent push on streaming. I will never go back to them.

Get over it. I fail to understand anyone who bashes streaming or Netflix or both. Streaming can be awesome in its own way. By the way, I own 500 blu's, so it's not like I don't highly prefer discs. But I also subscribe to both Netflix and Hulu Plus, which are especially great for television streaming. Netflix tried something, and now they are going to really start pushing Blu ray at the same time, it appears. What's wrong with that?

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I'm beating the drum for an accurate reading of the market ... And that analysis tells me that in the end, streaming and cloud services will be the bigger market regardless of any quality issues.

Circular.

[ZoetMB]

Well...in a few years we'll know whether I'm correct in my analysis or whether those who think physical will continue to dominate are correct.

And just in case some of you didn't notice, if you look to the left, you'll see that I own 63 BDs. Certainly far less than some of you, but enough to demonstrate that I enjoy and support the format. Some of you seem to take my prediction that streaming/cloud services will dominate as a personal insult.

[rickah88]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Well...in a few years we'll know whether I'm correct in my analysis or whether those who think physical will continue to dominate are correct.

And just in case some of you didn't notice, if you look to the left, you'll see that I own 63 BDs. Certainly far less than some of you, but enough to demonstrate that I enjoy and support the format. Some of you seem to take my prediction that streaming/cloud services will dominate as a personal insult.

No, not really. Just unfounded at this stage of the game. As you said, we'll see going forward.