Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Panther73

I disagree. Physical sales have plummeted every year. I can’t recall the last time that physical was outselling digital. We live in a world we’re everything needs to be quick and convenient, and the disc is slowing getting pushed out. We can denied that this’ happening, but it’s happening as we speak.

Digital never outsold physical media until the first quarter of this year.

Compact discs are still with us after 38 years and most people, like you, were absolutely undeniably certain that they would disappear. There are such things as niche markets that cater to the special interests of the few; physical media has spent much of its history in just such a market.

Laserdiscs were both expensive and super niche and they survived for 22 years despite much cheaper alternatives. Laserdiscs did not die; they were supplanted by a superior format: the DVD, which itself is 23 years old and counting.

Sales of movies and TV shows have been in decline since 2011. Neither digital sales nor sales of 4K discs have been able to reverse this long standing trend. Most people are satisfied just to rent in one way or another.

But this is a forum largely frequented by enthusiasts and what most people do is of little relevancy. Most people make many choices that I never would. Niche markets, by definition, cater to small segments of the population that want something different and better than what most people choose.

This link will let you look at sales and rental data for both physical media and digital as far back as 2011. Digital sales are labelled as "EST" or "Electronic Sell Thru."

https://www.degonline.org/industry-data/

For a "dying" market it is also rather curious that we are seeing more releases on physical media each year up thru 2019. So long as it is sufficiently profitable, discs will continue to be offered. 55 titles were released on blu-ray formats alone just this week. In a normal year with brand new movies it is not uncommon to see 70+ titles released each week.

I have been reading that physical media was in its death throes since 2014. These gloomy prophets way back then were just as convinced as you are now, but all that has happened is that they have been wrong for six consecutive years. Each year, they renew their predictions and each succeeding year discs remain.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Panther73

Head over to thedigitalbits.com. That’s my source. Oh! living in denial must be nice for you.

The digitalbits is worthless and Bill Hunt is little more than a cyber beggar these days.

[cminer72]

If Disney did pull out of the Blu-Ray market, that could be a death blow due to how much they own. The other possibility is cutting out Blu-Rays and still offering cheap DVDs in discount stores. Leaving the UHD content for streaming services. There are titles already that are only being released on DVD. Wait for the retort from the 4 guardians running this thread in 3...2...1.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cminer72

If Disney did pull out of the Blu-Ray market, that could be a death blow due to how much they own. The other possibility is cutting out Blu-Rays and still offering cheap DVDs in discount stores. Leaving the UHD content for streaming services. There are titles already that are only being released on DVD. Wait for the retort from the 4 guardians running this thread in 3...2...1.

DVD has been around since 1997; blu-ray since 2006, and 4K disc since just 2016. DVD has always had more content than any other format. It is also cheaper.

The rest of your post is just a string of "what-ifs." There is no hard evidence to suggest that Disney is going to stop releasing content on physical media.

Disney enjoys revenue from many avenues and so long as physical media is a profitable source of money they will continue offering it.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by CV19

Who knows how long it will be around for. However I remember the same thing being said about how vinyl would become extinct when the CD was launched in the early 80's.....and it's still with us nearly 40 years later. From a business point of view, as long as there is profit to be made, physical media will still be around.

The key word is Profit, if the Profit Margin is maintained Discs will remain. No Industry wants to lose money, if the Profit Margin is not there that item will be cut. No Industry wants to lose money, If Discs aren't making their Profit Margins they are out!

[Vilya]

Since the inception of DVD thru the end of 2019 there have been 229,252 titles released on the format.

Since the beginning of blu-ray thru the end of 2019, which includes 4K discs, there have been only 24,369 titles released on these formats.

2019DVDReleaseReport.jpg

2019BlurayReleaseReport.jpg

In these charts note that the total number of titles released each year has generally increased year over year. If the disc market is not a profitable one, then it is rather odd that we are getting more releases each year and not less.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

The key word is Profit, if the Profit Margin is maintained Discs will remain. No Industry wants to lose money, if the Profit Margin is not there that item will be cut. No Industry wants to lose money, If Discs aren't making their Profit Margins they are out!

You can rest assured that I and others do our part to keep them profitable.

There are so many titles released on blu-ray formats already and with each succeeding week more titles arrive that I will never run out of choices to buy. Just my wishlist is likely bigger than your entire digital collection.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Universal, Warner Bros. to Form DVD Joint Venture as Disc Sales Keep Dwindling



https://variety.com/2020/film/news/u...nt-1203467934/

Six month old news that has already been well digested and that has long since passed thru this forum's bowels.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cminer72

If Disney did pull out of the Blu-Ray market, that could be a death blow due to how much they own. The other possibility is cutting out Blu-Rays and still offering cheap DVDs in discount stores. Leaving the UHD content for streaming services. There are titles already that are only being released on DVD. Wait for the retort from the 4 guardians running this thread in 3...2...1.

Just the four? There are a lot more that.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

The key word is Profit, if the Profit Margin is maintained Discs will remain. No Industry wants to lose money, if the Profit Margin is not there that item will be cut. No Industry wants to lose money, If Discs aren't making their Profit Margins they are out!

Same for digital HD (or potato vision as it’s known to us quality lovers)

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Just the four? There are a lot more that.

I buy 20+ titles on disc every month as you well know.

It never fails to amuse me when someone pops in to tell me that the product that I buy in such quantity so routinely is about to disappear. Somehow, I think I would notice the signs like there being less new product to choose from, for example. Instead there are more titles released year over year.

I am equally humored when a certain someone, who does not even buy discs, tries to tell me that they are getting more expensive. I can't help but think that I would have noticed spending more each month.

Prices are stable, bargains abound, and the selection, is, well, Fantastic!

[JohnAV]

Originally Posted by alchav21

The key word is Profit, if the Profit Margin is maintained Discs will remain. No Industry wants to lose money, if the Profit Margin is not there that item will be cut. No Industry wants to lose money, If Discs aren't making their Profit Margins they are out!

If you have so little financial stake in your hobby, doesn't that imply anyone making money off of you, is about to go out of business?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

If you have so little financial stake in your hobby, doesn't that imply anyone making money off of you, is about to go out of business?

It bugs him that I can stream for free thanks to account sharing with family and friends, but he has no problem getting free digital codes, or buying them for cheap, from disc owners on this forum in clear violation of the terms governing such codes.

The studios make nothing from such transactions just as streaming services make nothing from me, but when he violates the terms it is alright because it benefits him to do so. Sharing streaming accounts, though, that's where he draws the line.

His hypocrisy is hilarious.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

If you have so little financial stake in your hobby, doesn't that imply anyone making money off of you, is about to go out of business?

Originally Posted by Vilya

The studios make nothing from such transactions just as streaming services make nothing from me, but when he violates the terms it is alright because it benefits him to do so. Sharing streaming accounts, though, that's where he draws the line.

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

There is no evidence that any of these things will happen. Physical media is a declining market, it is becoming more niche. It is not a dying market.

I follow the Movie Industry very closely, and have AMC Stock that I hope should do well if Theaters open up. Discs on the other hand are a declining business, and the Market may not make any money.

Sharing Accounts should be okay, but only in the households not open to all the family and friends. This is also how Movies and Shows disappear, because the control can not be maintained properly.

What determines a Niche Market, and how will that survive. It all goes back to Marketing and Profit Margins. If people are not buying Discs to support this Niche Market it will not survive!

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Six month old news that has already been well digested and that has long since passed thru this forum's bowels.

Including the 10 year term?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Including the 10 year term?

Yep.

The same subject linked to the same source, Variety, was discussed back on January 15th starting on page 998 of this thread. The 10 year bit is mentioned in the second paragraph when you follow the link given back on that page.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...59675&page=998

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=19943

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I follow the Movie Industry very closely, and have AMC Stock that I hope should do well if Theaters open up. Discs on the other hand are a declining business, and the Market may not make any money.

Sharing Accounts should be okay, but only in the households not open to all the family and friends. This is also how Movies and Shows disappear, because the control can not be maintained properly.

What determines a Niche Market, and how will that survive. It all goes back to Marketing and Profit Margins. If people are not buying Discs to support this Niche Market it will not survive!

What a revelation! I mean, who knew that in order for a product to remain viable that it needed to be profitable.

Not only do you state the obvious you repeat it lest we forget.

I would like to see some proof that sharing streaming accounts has led to even one instance of content being removed from a streaming service. You can't just make sh*t up; haven't you even learned this much by now?

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I would like to see some proof that sharing streaming accounts has led to even one instance of content being removed from a streaming service. You can't just make sh*t up; haven't you even learned this much by now?

Well I have never shared Accounts outside the household and have not lost anything, but I read other peoples problems when sharing Accounts. Yes they complain about losing items, and not being able to track and control their Movies and TV Shows. It doesn't happen to all the sharing people, but it does happen more offend to those that share.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Well I have never shared Accounts outside the household and have not lost anything, but I read other peoples problems when sharing Accounts. Yes they complain about losing items, and not being able to track and control their Movies and TV Shows. It doesn't happen to all the sharing people, but it does happen more offend to those that share.

Anecdotes are not proof.

People lose digital content for a whole host of reasons and often because they acquired something illegitimately. What you describe is at best a coincidence, not a cause. Sharing digital collections is extremely commonplace and very popular -and it wouldn't be if it caused people to lose titles.

I benefit from the sharing of subscription streaming accounts and I have never heard anyone anywhere claim that a subscription streaming service removed content due to account sharing.

I allow others to access my digital library at Vudu and nothing has been removed as a consequence. My personal anecdote negates your second-hand one.

[kfbkfb]

(might already be old news)

https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/7/21...size-standards
^^^
"50 percent efficiency gains..."


Kirk Bayne