Bill Hunt's Two Cents posts about Paramount, Warner, etc.

[BluDrew]

Bill Hunt is as much of a Blu-ray fan as all of us, but his latest "My Two Cents" piece (Aug 22) struck me as a little off. He seems open to the possibility that Warner is going to go HD DVD exclusive as well. Here is what he wrote (the parts that have me concerned are in bold):

A lot of people have asked us if we still believe Blu-ray is the better choice, with the better chance to win, and for the most part we do. But there's no doubt that some of Blu-ray's building momentum was lost yesterday. On the other hand, Blu-ray still has an edge in market share in terms of the Hollywood studios. But if Warner goes exclusive for HD-DVD too, Hollywood will basically be evenly split....

By the way, we've heard back from both Warner and New Line this morning. Warner says their format neutral stance remains in place... at least for now ("We haven't announced anything otherwise," was the basic quote). And New Line said they still plan to support both high-def formats, and will contact us when they have news about titles and dates.

The last 48 hours have certainly been tumultuous. What the next 48 hours might bring is anyone's guess.

And now Beatboy77 from AVS, who has been right about some announcements, wrong about others, seems to think it could happen. In this post he says:

Found out some possible huge positive news for HD-DVD today as well

I am at the point where I really want this war overwith. If it's HD-DVD the winner, great, if it's Blu-ray, great, if it's 2 more years of the format war...Oh God!

And then later on when asked what the positive news for HD DVD was he replies with:

I heard a little while a go that WB is seriously considering going HD-DVD Exclusive. If they decide to go this route, they will announce by Friday this week.

Someone please tell me how I should read this. I've started supporting HD DVD to an extent, but I REALLY need to know that Warner is staying NEUTRAL.

[Balian]

Microsoft bribing Warner is the next logical step. BDA better get on the ball or Microsoft will control all. It might be too late.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Balian

Microsoft bribing Warner is the next logical step. BDA better get on the ball or Microsoft will control all. It might be too late.

MS bribing Warner will raise a red flag to the SEC or EU. They got away with Paramount, why risk it, they prolonged this war. If they do get flaged you can expect its going to hurt MS pretty bad as they are going to be spending money in legal fees and possibly facing huge fines. Its not worth it to them. Universal and Paramount in more than enough to keep this war going.

[ryoohki]

The only reason Warner sold 300,000+ copie of 300 is because bluray participate for 75% of that note (almost)

[buckshot]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

The only reason Warner sold 300,000+ copie of 300 is because bluray participate for 75% of that note (almost)

unfortunately $220,000,000 goes a long way to subsidize our movie buying. i would love to see the bda come out of left field and offer $250,000,000 and steal wb exclusivity. that would be nice. otherwise this gets really ugly. but it basically puts us back at the spot before launch. paramount and wb were orignially hd dvd supporters and i still picked blu. i stand by blu. i doubt that blu would lose before the contracts on wb a paramount run out. then universal's will be up, and we could see the exodus then. sad that it will take so long. but none of our exclusive supporters look to be going anywhere. then it becomes an old school bare knuckle brawl. which may very well see the big guns come out sooner then they would otherwise. i still think blu will win. it will just take a little while longer. i don't think the m$ higher ups wpuld be willing to put up another $400,000,000 for something that they don't even want.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

The only reason Warner sold 300,000+ copie of 300 is because bluray participate for 75% of that note (almost)

I don't believe that 75% of the blu-ray standalone players owners bought 300. After informing 3 of my friends that their PS3 upconverts DVDs and plays the best High Def format on the market, they kicked in buying BDs and scrapped their standalone players. I think the press doesn't know how to count the number of PS3s bought for or being used as BD players. Certainly Universal, Paramount, Toshiba, and Microsoft don't want to advertise even if they did know.

-CB

[blublublu]

Bear in mind that MS (even if they were involved with the Paramount buyout - which there is no proof of) doesn't really want HD DVD to be successful. A stalemate will suit them fine, and they don't need to move WB to produce a stalemate, that's already been accomplished.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Bear in mind that MS (even if they were involved with the Paramount buyout - which there is no proof of) doesn't really want HD DVD to be successful. A stalemate will suit them fine, and they don't need to move WB to produce a stalemate, that's already been accomplished.

exactly! no need to spend hundreds of millons of dollars until its absolutely nesseccay, which it isn't as both formats are in jeopardy at the current stage.

[BluDrew]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Bear in mind that MS (even if they were involved with the Paramount buyout - which there is no proof of) doesn't really want HD DVD to be successful. A stalemate will suit them fine, and they don't need to move WB to produce a stalemate, that's already been accomplished.

Well for a company that doesn't really want HD DVD to be successful, they sure seem to be doing everything they can to make sure it succeeds.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by BluDrew

Well for a company that doesn't really want HD DVD to be successful, they sure seem to be doing everything they can to make sure it succeeds.

no. blu-ray was going to win, by q1 08, they did what they had to with paramont to secure it got them to q1 09, buys them time. no need to do anything until doom looks immenant again, then flash the wallet again.

[JAGUAR1977]

If the BDA stand by and let this happen they don't deserve our support.

Your call BDA, Microsoft are showing more guts for the fight, you only have yourselves to blame, it even took Paramounts defection for FOX to announce their titles.

I'll have a look on ebay for a cheap HD-DVD player to add to my PS3!

[E-Dogg]

The war could honestly go in either direction at this point, but I am hoping this rumor gets laid to rest sooner rather than later. If by some act of the devil WB goes HD-DVD exclusive it will be a major blow that may cause many to start to favor the inferior format.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by E-Dogg

The war could honestly go in either direction at this point, but I am hoping this rumor gets laid to rest sooner rather than later. If by some act of the devil WB goes HD-DVD exclusive it will be a major blow that may cause many to start to favor the inferior format.

Because, you'll just have to accept how lousy all those Sony, Fox/MGM, Disney and LGF titles will look on the inferior format?

It will cause people to consider getting an HD DVD player. But, honestly, will they then start waiting for BD studios to switch?

And, every title you purchase, won't you be thinking how the defector forced you into the situation?

Every skip.
Every disc that won't play.

[Slapper]

If HD-DVD does NOT get Warner exclusively I think the advantage will still be largely Blu unless Microsoft and Toshiba push them to release more movies. They've only put out a little over 30 different hi-def movies since this war started, correct? It'll sting not being able to get T-Formers and Shrek cubed but it could be worse.

If HD-DVD gets Warner then Blu-ray is going to sink this holiday season. Harry Potter will sell an s-load of standalone HD-DVD players.

Anyhoo, I still don't think M$ is going to put up any more money this year. They pi$$ed away alot of money already. $1 billion on the XBox repair program. $150 million on Paramount. I figure they would have to offer Warner at least double what they paid Paramount. That's alot of money to be flushing down the toilet and it's a lot of explaining to do to stockholders.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Slapper

If HD-DVD does NOT get Warner exclusively I think the advantage will still be largely Blu unless Microsoft and Toshiba push them to release more movies. They've only put out a little over 30 different hi-def movies since this war started, correct? It'll sting not being able to get T-Formers and Shrek cubed but it could be worse.

Agreed.

If HD-DVD gets Warner then Blu-ray is going to sink this holiday season. Harry Potter will sell an s-load of standalone HD-DVD players.

Totally disagree.

HD-DVD will see some nice sales but it will not sink BD.

Blu will be strong on the content side when you see what Fox, Disney, MGM, and SPE have lined up.

Honestly, I've about resigned myself to the idea that Warner is probably going back to being a full HD-DVD supporter vs. the 75 percent supporter they've been this whole time anyways.

Anything past that will be a pleasant bonus in my eyes.

Anyhoo, I still don't think M$ is going to put up any more money this year. They pi$$ed away alot of money already. $1 billion on the XBox repair program. $150 million on Paramount. I figure they would have to offer Warner at least double what they paid Paramount. That's alot of money to be flushing down the toilet and it's a lot of explaining to do to stockholders.

We all like to single out MS because it's fun, but some of the money also comes from Toshiba, Universal, and whomever is in their circle, so to speak.

[Terjyn]

Even if Warner goes HD-DVD, it still doesn't matter, Blu-Ray will outsell HD by a large margin.

HD-DVD is in a bad bind. They can not sell tons of HD-DVD players until HD-DVD wins the war. The PS3 outsells the HD-DVD adopters willing to go before the war is over. Therefore, Blu-Rays will outsell HD-DVDs and HD-DVD can not win the war.

While all the PS3 owners I know buy Blu-Rays, they do so out of convenience, not because they must have HD. As a result, studio support for HD-DVD does not matter to them. This includes me...I still happily buy DVDs when I have to.

About the only way I see that HD-DVD could win this war is if Universal, Warner, and Paramount pulled DVD support altogether, and went strictly HD-DVD.

Until that happens, they are boned, and no amount of studio buyout is going to make them sell more software, it's just going to make Blu-Ray sell less.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Slapper

If HD-DVD gets Warner then Blu-ray is going to sink this holiday season. Harry Potter will sell an s-load of standalone HD-DVD players.

That won't play Pirates 3, Spidey 3, The Simpsons Movie, Cars, Ratatouille, etc.

And the above titles will sell a ton of BD players.

And, in both cases, hopefully to people who know what the heck is going on.

Gary

[Jim L]

Guys, we need to chill out.

Go to fridge, get a cold beverage, then crank up your system and watch your favorite Blu-ray movie!

Don't worry about what hasn't happened yet. Things are going to play out in the coming weeks and months, and there isn't much we can do about it individually.

Having said that, if worse comes to worst, I will still enjoy my BD movies. I just can't get all of my movies in HD. There will be other options, like using the PS3 as an HD-PVR or connecting to your own media server filled with HD downloads. I don't know what I'll do yet, but I am not going to buy a Toshiba anything!

Think of it from the HD DUD owners' perspective: they are definitely in the weaker position, even if Warner goes exclusive.

Do all the studios really want to kill their next distribution channel? DVD is in decline and has no copy protection. Piracy is rampant. HD downloads do not have the infrastructure in place to accomplish iit n a satisfactory manner. The studios need cash flow NOW. I can't believe they would all be so stupid as to piss away the opportunity at a unified format for movie distribution. (but you never know)

Just my 2 cents.

Now that I've said that, I'm going to watch Immortal Beloved.

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by Balian

Microsoft bribing Warner is the next logical step.

I'm sure it was done at the same time Paramount was, hopeing they would get at least one studio. The fact that Paramount news came out and blindsided the BDA, it may also be to late for the BDA to react and talk to Warner.

However if Bill Hunt said that Warner is still neutral at this time means there has been no contract signed as he knows. I'm sure the BDA is asking what it will take to stay neutral or support BD.

Don't listen to anything your freind from AVS has to say, He also claims the BDA has news that will end this war in BDA's favor.

[dialog_gvf]

If it is a matter of big gobs of free money versus customer service and corporate ethics.

Who knows what is going to happen. If Warner does go exclusive, it will be an even bigger slap in the face to consumers than Paramount.

The biggest title on HD up to now is mere weeks out the door, and the 200+K units (and counting sold) on Blu-ray should mean something.

We'll see if they do.

Gary