Phloyd's Bold (?) Predictions for Year End

[phloyd]

Ok, some of these may not be so bold, but feel free to discuss or disagree...

Perhaps we can revisit at year end and see how I did

1) Paramount and WB will release BD and HD DVD discs with VC-1. This will render the 'image quality' argument in favour of HD DVD moot since both formats will inherently have the same encoding for the video in the cases where you have a choice of formats.

Edit: WB released VC-1 BDs on Sept 5, but it seems that Paramount is releasing MPEG2 but good quality discs none the less

2) PS3 will be launched and will effectively offer a BD player for $499 (or $599 with HDMI). This will render arguments in favour of the HD DVD being a cheaper player alternative moot.

Edit: News is that the cheaper PS3 will also be HDMI, equalling the retail of the HD-A1 player

3) By year end there will be more PS3s and BD players in households than HD DVD players. This will render arguments that HD DVD has a bigger install base moot.

Edit: vgcharts is saying 1.2 M players. Not sure what 360 add-on sold, but confident that more PS3s than HD DVDs at this point

The following may happen by year end though confidence is not high enough for me to call them a prediction. I think end of Q1 2007 is a more likely date.

1) 50 GB Bluray pressed discs go into mass production.

Edit: Looks like this will be true with releases mid November!

Edit2: Big titles like Superman Returns are on BD50 - BDA has done well to get so many BD50 releases in 2006!

2) Columbia Tristar authors a reference quality BD

Edit: Empire of the Sun?

I think prediction 3 carries some interesting weight in the light of the Joe Six Pack discussions. PS3 will likely put BD playing capability in the hands of people who are not so picky about image quality. Also the movie option is secondary to the gaming so I don't think I would equate a PS3 owner with an HD DVD player owner since the essential intent is different. Though while we might expect the PS3 owners to buy less movie discs, there should be many more of them than HD DVD players so it could easily result in a lot of movies sold.

In any case, assuming I am correct with my predictions there is not much left to differentiate between the formats. In my opinion the key remaining consideration is content. And that not only applied to titles but also to extras etc. WB could become part of that equation if they continue to make feature reduced BD discs even after they start using VC-1.

All else being equal it comes down to the content.

[Psiweaver]

I think that your predictions are in a large part very similar to what I envision for the rest of the year though I think that the samsung will be dropping in price too.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by phloyd

1) Paramount and WB will release BD and HD DVD discs with VC-1. This will render the 'image quality' argument in favour of HD DVD moot since both formats will inherently have the same encoding for the video in the cases where you have a choice of formats.

2) PS3 will be launched and will effectively offer a BD player for $499 (or $599 with HDMI). This will render arguments in favour of the HD DVD being a cheaper player alternative moot.

3) By year end there will be more PS3s and BD players in households than HD DVD players. This will render arguments that HD DVD has a bigger install base moot.

Agreed on all three counts.

The following may happen by year end though confidence is not high enough for me to call them a prediction. I think end of Q1 2007 is a more likely date.

1) 50 GB Bluray pressed discs go into mass production.

2) Columbia Tristar authors a reference quality BD

By the end of Q1 2007 sounds about right to me as well.

In any case, assuming I am correct with my predictions there is not much left to differentiate between the formats. In my opinion the key remaining consideration is content. And that not only applied to titles but also to extras etc. WB could become part of that equation if they continue to make feature reduced BD discs even after they start using VC-1.

All else being equal it comes down to the content.

Again, agreed. My issues with Blu-ray have not been that it can't win this format war by providing superb HD quality but rather why couldn't they start off with it like their competition did?

[Psiweaver]

The reason they didn't start out as well is becuase they were the ones who were supposed to walk all over HD DVD and so they poured less effort into the launch because they convinced themselves that there was no way they could lose.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

The reason they didn't start out as well is becuase they were the ones who were supposed to walk all over HD DVD and so they poured less effort into the launch because they convinced themselves that there was no way they could lose.

Apparently so.

[Psiweaver]

Well I can't figure out any other reason why they would launch sooo poorly.

[phloyd]

I think that they failed to win the early game because some of the key innovations could not be achieved in the correct time frame and it was important to do something.

The keyest of those is the 50GB disc. Had they achieved that by launch I think things would look significantly different.

Apparently their authoring and encoding was also not ready for prime time.

Warner should have had VC-1 BDs from day one and that was not possible.

Though it looks like Paramount will have VC-1 from day one on BD which is great.

Indeed HD DVD was less innovative and was up to speed faster... though still really late if you recall.

[Psiweaver]

Thats all very true I just think they had less desire and drive to bring to market an amazing product simply becuase they weren't the underdogs they were in the ones in the drivers seat and felt like they couldn't be touched.

[phloyd]

Well, tomorrow the PS3 will launch here and while the numbers are not as great as they predicted, they will all certainly sell (based on the lines I have seen at all the CE stores!).

I imagine that prediction #2 will be true by noon tomorrow. But I guess we will need to see the numbers to be sure.

Also we will need to see the numbers for the 360 add on.

I am pleased to note that BD50 is coming along strong, though I would not call it commonplace as such, it is certainly no longer 'special'. That was a bonus that I was not counting on at all...

[phloyd]

Well, I didn't do too badly.

Only obvious error that I see is that Paramount never did do VC-1 Bluray discs. Still I don't think anyone really cares.

I guess when June comes up we will see if hmurch's predictions come true...

This one would seem to be refuted on both counts:

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The PS3 will cause an uptick in movie sales and be very popular. It's quality will be slightly below standard players. It will be loud.

This will be the interesting one

Originally Posted by hmurchison

By June Lionsgate announces neutrality. By Sept Disney/BVHE announces Neutrality. LG is shipping their BD player and Liteon is shipping their HD DVD player.

I also note that I promised (maybe on the AVS Forum) to not make any more predictions for 2006. Well, it is 2007 baby! Time for more predictions perhaps

[Blubaru]

Due to the recent hacking issues I foresee more companies going blu-ray only and companies like Universal going natural. There will be no new HD-DVD players or announcements from anyone else other than Toshiba. HD-DVD has a terrible Christmas in 07 and will go bust in 08.

[Maximus]

The studio that will suffer most from hacking is Weinstien as they make a larger proportion of their money from DVD sales when compared to bigger studios, if the BDA can show them that their content is safer on BD they will switch/neutral. Lionsgate will be deterred as they are in a similar situation to Weinstien they will remain BD exclusive throughout 2007.

Big studios will press their advantages and start double dipping (TFE anyone?), HD DVD fans will start whining when epic films are released on Warner/HBO/New Line without a lossless track but are present on BD due to increased availability of 50GB discs. Paramount follow suit. BD films from June onwards are using BD50 as standard and only short animated films and games use BD25. Alien quadrilogy is released along with Close Encounters, both prove to be incredibly successful for driving hardware sales, there is talk of Lucas okaying a release of Star Wars saga and Indian Jones trilogy (to coincide with the release of the fourth film) in early 2008 on BD, people rejoice.

Toshiba shows plans for G3 players priced at $299 but they will still only use HDMI 1.1 (to keep pricing low) so will be unable to output 1080p, Chinese companies will do the same only price at $249 - the players will be of sub-standard quality. The HD DVD add-on is reduced in price to $129. Toshiba do not release a high-end G3 as they have said that there is no need for 1080p output and advanced audio decoding aside from TrueHD which is mandatory (stereo only) for all players.

Sony release a G1 ES line model for $1299 with HDMI 1.3, DTS-HDMA, TrueHD, BD-Live and 1080p24 out of the box, they also release a G2 non-ES player without HDMI 1.3 for $799. PS3 released in EU in May, two months late. Samsung release their G2 with HDMI 1.3, BD-Live and 1080p24 out of the box, for $699, promising advanced audio decoding later. Panasonic release Firmware for G1 player for (processed) 1080p24 support and decoding of advanced audio, they see no reason to release a G2 player until 2008 so they lower the price of their G1 player to $499 by June giving Blu-ray a highish-end player for a low price point. LG announce G1 players at CES and release in Feb, no delays for $399, it is not the best of players, but it matches the low-end A2 from Toshiba and is still able to output 1080p60 but no advanced audio support and no HDMI 1.3, but it has a low enough price to justify those decisions. Sharp and JVC release players. Towards the end of 2007 a dual format capable player form an unkown Chinese company emerges, the company is sued by BDA for breaking license terms, MS support Chinese company and call for larger companies to follow suit and release a dual format player and end a war (that HD DVD is about to lose). The Supreme court rules in favour of the BDA, Sony bashers vow never to support BD.

BDA introduce MMC (mandatory managed copy) people rejoice. HD DVD won't follow as AACS is well and truly broken and Universal won't sanction MC (non-mandatory managed copy). BD is still protected by BD+ for the time being, but the hacking community is close to a workaround.

December (needs its own write-up)

PS3 in full production, sells 2.2m consoles in NA, 1.4 in EU and 1.2m in JPN. X360 sells well in NA coming in at 1.7m, but bombs in EU where it can only manage 250k. I won't talk about JPN. The big N outsells all!

Player prices come down in anticipation for holiday. In US this happens on Black Friday, in Rest of World happens just before Xmas. Pioneer's plan for CES leaks G2 BD players are seen for the Elite brand and LCD (very bold, I know) prototypes are also spotted in plans. Sony G2 player receives Top Tech award for 2007.

The next bit is a bit out-there but could happen in the right conditions,

Due to shareholder pressure Toshiba announce that they have acquired a BD license and have joined the BDA. They also say that they will be showing a prototype BD player at CES, the only company allowed to release both type of player. Toshiba tell public that they will be supporting HD DVD for the foreseeable future, secretly agree to phase out HD DVD production by Q3 2008 to the BDA. Paramount and Warner announce that they will no longer be supporting and releasing on HD DVD, but do say that for 5 films they can send in their HD DVDs and they will be replaced with the corresponding BDs as an act of good faith. Universal and MS stay silent, end up to be the only major companies still supporting HD DVD.


And those are my predictions for 2007,

Max