Effects of Dual-format Player/Disc Support

[Josh]

Earlier today, Warner announced that they would be introducing a single disc which would play in both Blu-ray and HD DVD players. Additionally, LG announced that they would introduce a single player which would play both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs. After giving it some thought, I believe these announcements are more detrimental to the HD DVD group than the Blu-ray group.

Most agree that the Blu-ray group has a very solid content and hardware support. Blu-ray supporters have already enjoyed support from all content providers excluding Universal and all hardware manufacturers excluding Toshiba. They were set to, at the very least, survive the format war for the foreseeable future with the current support.

On the other hand, the HD DVD group was in desperate need of additional studio and manufacturers support to continue the battle. Coming into CES, they were looking for any type of studio neutrality or hardware neutrality to justify their existence.

What will be the effect of the dual-format support?

Blu-ray studios will now feel no need to produce HD DVD content. With the majority of players being Blu-ray, and all future players supporting both, there is no reason to support a niche product like HD DVD. Universal should recognize that Blu-ray is superior in technical terms and make the switch as well - but their stubbornness to adopt a Sony-led technology will probably mean they only produce HD DVD content for the foreseeable future.

Hardware companies will stay where they are, or move to a dual-format stance. Sony will stay Blu, and Toshiba will stay HD DVD because that is there technology, but everyone else will be forced to produce dual-format players eventually as the market demands.

One of two things will happen. Either HD DVD will die as support moves to the superior format, or both will survive and the war will continue without ammunition. If the first scenario happens, it will be best for consumers. If the second happens, consumers will reject both in spite of studios and stick with DVD - leaving both to die a horrible death with billions lost by all involved. Consumers generally will not deal with two formats, and if Universal refuses to produce content for Blu-ray, HD DVD will be dragged along for the ride over the cliff.

In other words, this is probably not going to end pretty.

[dobyblue]

I think Sony and Panasonic will stay Blu as well.

[WriteSimply]

I agree with josh.

And to add, if their format eventually ends HD-DVD supporters will have Warner and Universal to blame for prolonging the war unnecessarily. Warner for trying to extend the life of their DVD royalties and Universal for not supporting BD and ending the war before it began.

If it doesn't end this year, it'll be a protracted war. That means a niche product market. The CE companies are not going to like Warner, Universal and LG.


fuad

[mbslrm]

HD DVD might just become a niche market, and BD will probably just replace DVD...

[theknub]

if a hd-dvd/dvd combo disc is $5 more, what would a BR/hd-dvd disc cost?

[dialog_gvf]

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

Not a bad theory. A dual deck and/or "combo disc" would soften the blow, as it were, for HD-DVD only folks.

Again, we come back to: The only people really happy about any of these prospects are HD-DVD folks.

[mbslrm]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

That is a possible....

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)

? Paramount HD DVD only ?

[reiella]

More interested in the dual-sided discs. But then again, I'm reminded fairly obviously of the success of the DualDisc format for music [CD/DVD in that case]. Older players wouldn't be able to read their appropiate side because of the weight difference in the disk [haven't seen the specs to know if they is even an issue however with BD/HD], and just the added price mark-up usually resulted in them not being worth the sale effort. As it is, the HD-DVD/DVD sets are the generally more expensive releases, wouldn't an HD/BD disc summary cost more yet?

But then again, it's not like the majority of folks were still using cassettes when DualDisc came out . I can see the dual-format disks be workable, I just wouldn't personally want to get them [mostly as it feels like I spending money for something I don't want, but that's me :P].

On the dual-deck? Eh, it's a nice idea, but it's ultimately a fairly flimsy one, the nature of the american media market isn't one that's nice to share competiting formats. It's good for consumers though so they can make a purchase with confidence. But they should be more costly.

[Deciazulado]

I've seen someone over at the other side emphatically saying over and over that this is great for HD DVD and that he'll buy a double player, but at the same time repeating totally convinced the FUD that particulary NOW that this is going to happen Disney will START doing HD DVDs in almost every post he writes (which he has been saying by now for 6 months or more non stop). So... if there's a double format player, explain to me how does this translates in his mind to Disney making HD DVDs and why does Disney has to do HD DVDs if there's a double format player? It doesn't make any sense. Either the level of lunacy has exceeded logic in this persons mind completely, or this person is a paid shill (cheerlader) saying EVERYTHING is great for HD DVD, everything points to HD DVD, and everything goes HD DVD no matter what it is. There used to be logic. Now ...