Analysts: Retailers will drop HD-DVD next year

[Petra]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03082007...ick.htm?page=1

But some experts are ready to play taps for the HD DVD format - and are saying it's safe to buy Blu-ray players without fear they'll end up being sold as relics on eBay.

Alison Casey, who analyzes consumer trends for London-based Understanding & Solutions, predicts that retailers will pull the plug on HD DVD sometime next year.

They never wanted two formats. It confuses consumers and creates problems with them with returns," Casey told The Post. "They're looking to go to a single format as soon as possible."

In Casey's view, the many studios providing movies on Blu-ray, along with its inclusion in the PS3 (listing for $500, about the same as the cheapest HD DVD player) gives it an insurmountable advantage over HD DVD.

[Spankey]

I was just going to post this after reading it on the subway into work. Has it been posted "over there" yet? The originial title..Blu-Ray Ascending

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by Petra

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03082007...ick.htm?page=1

Alison Casey, who analyzes consumer trends for London-based Understanding & Solutions, predicts that retailers will pull the plug on HD DVD sometime next year.

That's one guy making an assumption. As long as there are (drunken) sales people like Robert (over at AVS) retailers will still sell HD-DVD players. The only thing that can put an end to this all is Universal going neutral. We still don't know when this is going to happen.

[nhaase]

HDJK, you're right, but also realize that this was printed in a major publication, which millions of people read. In the article they talk about consumers being tepid over buying a new format without knowing which will last out. Today, however, people who read the NY Post read that one format is pulling away, and saw the "near 3 to 1" advantage BR is having right now. So, that article, I would think, would ease some tepidness people might have.

HD-DVD supporters will paint this as a smear campaign, but hey, BR is out there now in regular publications as winning, and this can only recruit others who enjoy HDTV and want movies in HD w/out buying a losing technology. I think this helps BR's cause very much.

[Maximus]

If the big retailers (BB, CC, Future Shop) dropped HD DVD, it has no chance, people don't like buying CE online from Amazon and other places. Think about it, the consumer thinks that there is a war, but when they go into the biggest CE retailers, one of the challengers can't be found, what message does that put across?

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

If the big retailers (BB, CC, Future Shop) dropped HD DVD, it has no chance, people don't like buying CE online from Amazon and other places. Think about it, the consumer thinks that there is a war, but when they go into the biggest CE retailers, one of the challengers can't be found, what message does that put across?

That would certainly a killer for HD-DVD, AND I'm all for it! But if it really happens only because an analyst said so remains to be seen. But definitely, an article like this in the NYP is good news for blu-ray.

[Spankey]

I have to add, that the article is pretty prominent in the paper with bold print, picture of PS3 controller and The Departed.

[DTMoney84]

Originally Posted by HDJK

That's one guy making an assumption. As long as there are (drunken) sales people like Robert (over at AVS) retailers will still sell HD-DVD players. The only thing that can put an end to this all is Universal going neutral. We still don't know when this is going to happen.

Yes it is only one analysts opinion but it is based on concrete facts. Since Demcember I believe when BD sales surpassed HD-DVD they have continued to grow in their sales lead. They have yet to even come close to unlocking the potential sales PS3's will bring in. They have yet to introduce lower priced stand alone players (coming soon). Their current titles are far superior to that of HD-DVD. Their upcoming title releases are even farther superior to HD-DVD's upcoming releases which should just expand the sales ratio that much more. On top of all that they still maintain the strong studio support which HD-DVD has never had. Yes it is only one analysts prediction but when you look at facts there it is hard to imagine HD-DVD really surviving at all next year.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by DTMoney84

They have yet to even come close to unlocking the potential sales PS3's will bring in.

It seems we live in a society with ADD. Everything needs to be instantaneous and today.

As you point out, the MOST important aspect of the PS/3 is that it has already given every owner a BD player. Whether they use it today isn't important. It's a demographic to push HDTV upon, and BD movies.

For HD DVD to ever succeed would require some sizeable percentage of people who own or will own a PS/3 would have to be ultimately convinced to buy something else before using what they have. Why would they?

Gary

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by DTMoney84

Yes it is only one analysts prediction but when you look at facts there it is hard to imagine HD-DVD really surviving at all next year.

I agree with what you say about HD-DVD. But the analyst says that retailers will back out and thus speeding up the process before the format is really dead (which is what most people here agree with I think, when Universal goes neutral), and I just think that's what it is: a prediction and not a fact.

[nhaase]

A nice indication of the state of HD-DVD will be how they respond to the NYP article in the next week. Yes, this is just a prediction, but like I said earlier, many people who are not familiar with the format war just read that BR is very sure to win it, so they will think that is the truth. HD-DVD must counter this article if they want to remain competitive in the eyes of the general public, not just videophiles like us. That's why this article is so big, it's not just videophiles reading it, it is regular people, as well.

So watch for the HD-DVD camp to come out w/ something. Universal will try to, if they think it has a chance. I want to see their response.

[DTMoney84]

Originally Posted by HDJK

I agree with what you say about HD-DVD. But the analyst says that retailers will back out and thus speeding up the process before the format is really dead (which is what most people here agree with I think, when Universal goes neutral), and I just think that's what it is: a prediction and not a fact.

I understand the point you are making and to an extent I agree. However I do not find it unlikely that retailers will soon begin pushing on product over the next. They have a huge vested interest in ending this war as soon as possible. Right now the majority of homes have DVD players and DVD collections (however big or small). From these homes all the retailers will profit from is New Release DVD's. A lot of people willing to spend money on upgrading to Blu-ray or HD-DVD are waiting out to see who prevails. If one side were to prevail now, say Blu-ray, retailers increase their profits in a big way. Nothing changes as far as profit from New Release movies this stays the same whether they be on DVD or Blu-ray. Now however with the outcome of this war being more clear a certain percentage of the DVD homes will come out and upgrade to Blu-ray. So now on top of New Release profits retailers would be looking at greatly increased profits from sale of new Blu-ray players as well as people converting their standard DVD collections to Blu-ray.

As of now they are only really seeing profits from New Release DVD sales. Were one side to win, they would still see those same profits from NR sales, as well as a sharp rise in equiptment profits (as people are not really buying many standard DVD players these days), and a boost in profits from the upgrading of older collections to the Blu-ray counterparts.

Am I saying I think Best Buy is going to end this war? No it probably won't happen. But the point is that retailers would increase their profits if this thing ended sooner rather than later. However retailers ( I guess in referring to retailers I mean Best Buy since their marketshare is the only one large enough to really control the market) should realize that if they were to go one side over the other it would essentially crown one as king. If Best Buy were to do this it would allow them to realize their potential profit increase much sooner than if it waited for this thing to play out. And with the current statistics and studio support that Blu-ray holds over HD-DVD I do not see why Best Buy does not make this move to support Blu-ray exclusively. Not in the sense that it is siding with Blu-ray, but for the simple fact that it is just a smart business decision on their part.

[HDTV1080P]

When the Sony BETAMAX sales declined and started losing to VHS, some retail stores decided to stop selling BETA many years before Sony official stopped making BETA machines. The same thing could happen to HD-DVD format if sales were to decline. Best Buy and Circuit City are not going to stock movies and players in a format that does not sale.

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by DTMoney84

Am I saying I think Best Buy is going to end this war? No it probably won't happen. But the point is that retailers would increase their profits if this thing ended sooner rather than later. However retailers ( I guess in referring to retailers I mean Best Buy since their marketshare is the only one large enough to really control the market) should realize that if they were to go one side over the other it would essentially crown one as king. If Best Buy were to do this it would allow them to realize their potential profit increase much sooner than if it waited for this thing to play out. And with the current statistics and studio support that Blu-ray holds over HD-DVD I do not see why Best Buy does not make this move to support Blu-ray exclusively. Not in the sense that it is siding with Blu-ray, but for the simple fact that it is just a smart business decision on their part.

Well, maybe you're right (of course I hope you are right). The sooner ranking in of profits might be tempting for them. I just still observe quite a few of pro HD-DVD resellers here in Switzerland/Germany. CE resellers and also Disc resellers still haven't caught up to the latest trends . It just seems, that you have to be a freak like us or an analyst to see the inevitable: blu-ray is here to stay
One store has a 65'' Panasonic plasma with their BMP-BD10 on display running the blu-ray demo disc with parts from Ice Age 2 and KOH. It looks fantastic and everybody is in awe. But you won't find any BDs there. There are three shelves with HD-DVDs though and sales people that will tell you HD-DVD can do the same for much less At least here there are still a lot of those people around.