Rough economy challenges Blu-ray?

[JimShaw]

Reading the Sunday paper The Press-Enterprise, I came across a large article regarding Blu-ray.

Following are a few excerpts.

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Rough Economy Challenges Blu-ray

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

But Hollywood is still betting on the format, releasing more home video titles on Blu-ray.

“We’ve been investing quite a bit of R&D and our future into this business,” said Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

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[Anthony P]

yawn, one more person paid to make up excuses why BD is doomed. Funny how they needed to find a computer analyst to say that the movie would be slowed because of the recession, after all anyone that has any knowledge of the movie industry would know better.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yawn, one more person paid to make up excuses why BD is doomed. Funny how they needed to find a computer analyst to say that the movie would be slowed because of the recession, after all anyone that has any knowledge of the movie industry would know better.

That same ANALyst has been quoted on a couple of other news sources. He is truly clueless as to what is going on. Blu-ray sales for Q4 will surpass the total for the first three quarters of the year.

[quexos]

Why is it that everybody goes extreme in their opinion in the future of something, anything for that matter ?

Nobody knows whether Bluray will succeed or crash. One can notice a trend or analyze conjectures and from there infer a possible future but saying Bluray will totally crash for sure in 6 months, 3 days and 4 hours or saying the opposite is vain methinks.

[JimShaw]

Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment did say, regarding Blus

“We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by JimShaw

Reading the Sunday paper The Press-Enterprise, I came across a large article regarding Blu-ray.

Following are a few excerpts.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rough Economy Challenges Blu-ray

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

But Hollywood is still betting on the format, releasing more home video titles on Blu-ray.

“We’ve been investing quite a bit of R&D and our future into this business,” said Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

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Iron Man just sold 500,000 in one week and other titles are still selling between 10 and 15% of sales. This article is FUBAR.

[dialog_gvf]

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

There always seems to be another analyst to predict that.

Where is the high quality HD download service? Shouldn't it exist before predicting it will replace an existing market?

Gary

P.S. Here's a form quote:

Analyst [fill in name] predicts [fill in event] will cause a slow down in Blu-ray adoption, allowing downloads to take over.

[blu2]

In case anyone wants to read the actual article:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&sn=002&sc=957

[naturephoto1]

Just as in my 2 businesses, there are always people with deep pockets that can get through bad economic times. Hopefully there will be enough, and enough of the general public will jump on the bandwagon now and when the economy improves.

Rich

[blu2]

And here is an analyst taking the opposite stance (comments on the Kay analysis)

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu102008.htm

Washington, D.C. (October 20, 2008) -- Some analysts are predicting that the U.S. economic slump will kill Blu-ray player sales in the fourth quarter and perhaps beyond. For instance, Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates, is forecasting a "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales.

But Kay and his fellow doomsayers are ignoring what's taking place in the marketplace. Blu-ray player prices are dropping fast with several models now available at retail and online for under $250.

Additionally, I predict that some Blu-ray players will be available for $129-149 by Christmas, just a few dollars more than your average standard-def DVD player. At those prices, high-def owners, who have more disposable dollars than the average consumer, will find the Blu-ray player all but irresistible.

But analysts who are calling for Blu-ray's demise are banking that consumers will suddenly find new Net-based video services irresistible. They believe -- somehow -- that millions of Americans will rush to the store to, no, not buy a Blu-ray player, but buy a different set-top that delivers movies over the Net.

Of course, this contradicts their argument that the economy will hurt Blu-ray sales. If consumers don't have the money for Blu-ray, they won't have the money for those Net-enabled set-tops, either, from companies such as Apple, Netflix and Vudu.

"If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen a la Netflix, that's the way you're going to go," Kay told the San Francisco Chronicle, apparently referring to Netflix's new set-top partnership with LG Electronics.

Some analysts, though, are saying that consumers will simply order films from On Demand services on cable and satellite. But they seem to ignore that satellite's On Demand service (at least from DIRECTV) requires a high-speed Broadband connection that's more trouble to connect that it's worth.

Cable's On Demand service is much easier to use and has plenty of HD titles to choose from -- if you happen to be a subscriber to a major cable service. Many smaller cable operators' On Demand lineup pales in comparison to the majors.

So, in the view of this analyst, Blu-ray will have a strong holiday season, perhaps even stronger than previously anticipated because the tough economy will force retailers and Blu-ray makers to lower prices earlier than planned on players and movie titles.

[MAPdead]

Why are sales increasing if Blu Ray is doomed? This guy is an complete dumbass.

[crazyBLUE]

I'M NOT BUYING MY MOVIES OVER NO INTERNET OR ANY OTHER MEANS OF STREAMING IT TO ME !!!! The economy will not slow me down on my purchases of the BLUE-RAYS I want !!! The BRD will have far better PQ & AQ ! ALL the other way's will look like HD cable or CRAP COMPARED TO BLUE-RAY !!

[owa]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Where is the high quality HD download service? Shouldn't it exist before predicting it will replace an existing market?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

[lch]

those analyst should be predicting the reverse will happen.
"during bad economic, people will just buy the disc home for the whole family to enjoy instead of family outing to the cinema which will cost more."

[P@t_Mtl]

Its funny, I remember the same type of articles and news stories back in 1983-84 about the Compact Disk, how it would not caught on.

You will always have those (very few) who are just plain scared or against any kind of change or move forward.

But the majority will always embrace a new gadge

[CptGreedle]

All the analysts I heard say Blu-ray sales could double by the end of the year!
That is a huge difference from what they are saying..
Why you ask?
Simple... the economy.
Yeah.. the economy.

BD prices (at least for movies) might not drop at all. However, player prices are dropping to encourage consumer adoption, and HDTV prices are dropping DUE to the economy. So more ppl will be likely to get HDTVs, and thus, more BD players and movies.
Also, in times like this, entertainment industries do VERY well, cause it is a necessary part of human life and it is a great way of escaping from real world troubles.

I expect to see a HUGE increase in sales, not a drop.

[SquidPuppet]

Blu-ray IS doomed and the 4th quarter WILL suck. Ooooops...I forgot....The Dark Night releases in the 4th quarter.

Yea....right....very few copies will sell.

MASSIVE

[The Don]

I'm buying one of those HD download thingies for christmas!

oh wait...they're not out yet?..

[haushausman]

What a stupid article. With X-mas right around the corner Blu-ray is going to be the hottest gift this year.

[Panos]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ron

I purchased more Blu's since this (so-called) depression started, than I did all year.

No kidding. I bought 4 Blu's just last week alone! I would have bought more if i didn't stop myself. Price on blu's are coming down. It's not what they used to cost 6 months to a year ago.

In order for people to download, nevermind stream 1080p videos with lossless audio, were going to need ISP's to provide the average user with a lot more bandwidth! What's it going to cost for that kind of bandwidth?? I guess they can just push out 720p videos and call it "Blu-ray quality!" and fool most people that don't know better...

I highly doubt blu-ray will fail. There is nothing out there at this time that can compete with it.