How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Grumpz]

With internet speeds constantly increasing, and the prices of Flash Media constantly decreasing, how long do you think Blu-ray will be around?

Sorry if there's already been a thread, but I didn't find it.

Is it outside the realm of belief to think that we could be plugging in jump drives to watch movies in the not so distant future?

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

It doesn't look like Ipods and the variations of them are going anywhere, and these play compressed files. HD content wouldn't need to be compressed.

I personally don't think internet will be able to stream HD content flawlessly for some time but even that will happen.

Of course I haven't considered every angle so yes there are a lot of reasons to think blu-ray will be around for yrs and yrs, but I don't see it that way. There's no need for moving parts to play any type of media. It's all data now.

I'm going to go with the first HD movie released on a jump drive in Feb of 2014. Who knows...maybe I"m nuts.

[OrlandoEastwood]

Given the fact that DVD only last about 10 years before a competitor came in, this thing better last because I am not replacing my movies after this if this Super HD 2160p comes into homes, screw that. It better last another 20 years.

[AppleCrumbDlite]

Originally Posted by OrlandoEastwood

Given the fact that DVD only last about 10 years before a competitor came in, this thing better last because I am not replacing my movies after this if this Super HD 2160p comes into homes, screw that. It better last another 20 years.

I'm not trying to be negative but I feel like your reasoning is backwards. Technology is improving and moving exponentially. With the reasoning you've put in place, I wouldnt be surprised if Blu-ray had a competitor of some type in 5-6 years.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Grumpz

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

Manufacturers pay less to produce material than is available for enduser consumption. It costs them like 1 dollar to manufacture a Blu-ray disc, but you'll not be paying that little for one anytime soon.

But that's not the only hurdle here. With the movie studios all backing Blu-ray, they're not going to jump ship too a new standard so easily. I'll concede that if/when Blu-ray is replaced, it'll probably be a solid-state drive, but really, that won't be soon. Notice also that capacity isn't the only issue here-- if a person doesn't use a flash drive correctly, they can irreparably damage the data. Yeah, optical discs can get scratched, but generally, one doesn't DESTROY ALL DATA if they make a mistake during NORMAL USE. That's the major hurdle here, I think, aside from the fact that it'll take time before studios would be willing to abandon their baby for a new one.

To say nothing of the fact that they're not going to switch to a new format unless they can entice people to rebuy again. Blu-ray delivers fine 1080p video, pristine audio, excellent security, and top notch menu capabilities. Higher resolution audio isn't possible, and higher resolution picture would fall on "deaf ears"-- higher than 1080p would be meaningless in the sizes of screens most of us use. I don't know if 4K would even be worthwhile on the bigger front projection systems. But there's 3-D. If Blu-ray is ever toppled, I think it'll probably be more to get 3-D in than because a new format is warranted. And yes, Blu-ray is capable of delivering 3-D content as true stereoscopic 3-D (rather than hardcoded anaglyphs), but when many films are filling 50 GB discs up to the brim without 3-D support, I'd think they can use that justification to bring in a new standard once 3DTV takes off in the same way HDTV is now.

I personally don't think internet will be able to stream HD content flawlessly for some time but even that will happen.

Internet can already stream 720p video with stereo audio rather well (depending on the user's speed), but high bitrate 1080p video with uncompressed audio isn't anywhere near a possibility, and that's what it'd take to supplant BD's FUNCTIONALITY, and even if it were to happen, plenty would still rather have the physical disc.

And yes, DVD has lasted 10 years already since introduction, so I figure BD's higher level of adaptability and "future-proof-ness" of it should help it remain relevant. I mean, this thing is 1080p video with uncompressed sound; nothing but BD delivers that level of quality, and until that can happen, I don't think it'll be going anywhere.

ps that "2160p" is called quadHD I think. It's 4x as many pixels as 1080p, and frankly, many people can't even tell the difference between 720p and 1080p in the "normal" screen sizes, so you really think higher resolutions will catch on? I'll admit they might, especially for very large screens, but any support for that resolution will DEFINITELY be niche and not have any chance of being mainstream, at least not as long the average American has a screen smaller than 100 inches. HD is on its way to mainstream, and BD is along for the ride as the only means of physically owning HD media.

edit:

Originally Posted by AppleCrumbDlite

I'm not trying to be negative but I feel like your reasoning is backwards. Technology is improving and moving exponentially. With the reasoning you've put in place, I wouldnt be surprised if Blu-ray had a competitor of some type in 5-6 years.

By that logic, look at how long DVD was around before buzz was happening for Blu-ray. Less than 10 years for sure, and even with Blu-ray going on its third year, DVD is still going relatively strong and still has at least a couple years left at minimum probably.

[Al_The_Strange]

It is hard to predict, and the argument could easily go either way. There are good indicators that it could stick around for years (for all the reasons stated above), but there are possibilities that it could be more short-lived. Advents in future technology can't even be predicted; 3-D movies, or higher-resolution video perhaps? I know lots of people seem to cite digital downloadable movies as a possible competitor, but I honestly don't believe that it can fully rival Blu-Ray media, due to quality, Internet infrastructure, DRM issues, and other reasons. And as for DVDs, I think more and more people are seeing the differences between low and high resolution video (my parents for example; I couldn't believe it!), and Blu-Ray adoption is definitely on the rise.

At any rate, I'm estimating 10 years.

[DVDave]

The average Joe consumer still thinks DVD is the bees knees. Try reading some reviews on Amazon and they think hi-def is a scam because they can't tell any difference at all between their upconverted DVDs and a native hi-def bluray.

[SkillzthatKillz]

until 2012 when the world ends lol

[cdot2four]

Up scaled SD DVD's are the future

[LifeOfAPirate13]

Originally Posted by SkillzthatKillz

until 2012 when the world ends lol

Don't you mean the Day the Earth Stood Still? I mean as for how long this technology will last well that depends on if everything is going the digital download route or if they stay disk/whatever physical matter based will someone create the "next big thing" quicker than blu-ray did to DVD? It is hard to say...I would say it will be around about as long as SDVD's were based on the fact that it would suck if like "Superdisk" came out or something like that where EVERYTHING were 7.1+ and the video were better than what is currently available but then again not every household even has a 16:9 aspect ration let alone trying to make an even sharper resolution TV, and given its success currently it has quite a bit of life left.

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Notice also that capacity isn't the only issue here-- if a person doesn't use a flash drive correctly, they can irreparably damage the data. Yeah, optical discs can get scratched, but generally, one doesn't DESTROY ALL DATA if they make a mistake during NORMAL USE. That's the major hurdle here, I think, aside from the fact that it'll take time before studios would be willing to abandon their baby for a new one.

I'm not implying that it would have to be in the exact format of a usb drive as it exists today. It wouldn't take much to give the storage eeprom type characteristics.

The cost of storage is the main hurdle in this situation (not the only). If memory was cheap like borscht when video went digital (DVD) we likely would of skipped DVD's all together.

I look at standalone DVD recorders for television. They didn't have a chance to catch on, PVR's/DVR's dominate that market. Digital cameras are mainstream, sure film is used, but to what extent? Hard Drive video cameras are the norm...the list goes.

Heck, I myself keep everything on my computer that I can, and stream it to my PS3.

To me, it's the next obvious progression, and since technology is growing faster today, than it did in the vhs to dvd and then dvd to blu transitions. I think it's going to be quick.

Check this out, yes the quick blurb is from 2007, but look at the players.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/18/u...-flash-drives/

It's coming quicker than most think.

[RWebb74]

6-8 years. I would say, "As long as DVD", but I don't think that is the case here. Technology is moving exponentially fast. In 10-12 years, I wouldn't be surprised to see "hard" media going by the way side altogether. I have been very anti-download and digital copy for movies, but I am coming around. Once the proper upgrades to cable systems, etc... are in place, and every device is connected to the internet, I think that is the way things will go. Don't get me wrong, with the way things are right now, I don't like it, but with improvements, maybe. Just remember, what seems inconceivable today in technology, is likely just around the corner. Think how amazing DVD was just ten years ago, imagine what we'll have in another ten years.

[jw]

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

You can get a 1TB MyBook for 119.00 at WM, that is .12/GB, I know thats not a flash drive however its external memory

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by jwbbud

You can get a 1TB MyBook for 119.00 at WM, that is .12/GB, I know thats not a flash drive however its external memory

Although it's not a flash drive, it just supports the belief that storage is becoming so cheap, it could easily replace what I consider, are clumsy pc's of plastic.

It's not to say the .mkv files or 1080p will be replaced, but the way in which the data is delivered could will be.

I for one loved downloading the latest episodes of Lost, copying them to my jump drive, and plugging it into the usb slot on the front of the PS3. It was fantastic. Now of course I stream it, which takes care of a step.

[Kirsty_Mc]

BD will be about for a while... at least until the patents start expiring and the companies look for the next new thing to sell and make some dosh out of.

As regards downloads, have a look at:-

http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2009/04/high_de...n_13.html#more

The BBC is going to start making some programmes available as a catchup service. It looks like a lot of folk are about to be caught out and find that their broadband package is not "HD Ready". Until things like this are sorted out, downloads are a non starter.

[Audiophile_At_Birth]

Go Blu!

[blu2]

Hard to predict how long a format will last.

The heavyweight champ of formats is still around and sales increased 89% last year!

http://blogs.laweekly.com/westcoasts...-2008-sales-f/