Blu-ray's Chances Against DVD

[Blu Titan]

By 2012 Blu-ray movie sales are expected to surpass DVD. Grubert has a nice thread on this, but I am too lazy to look for it at this time.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

Didn't I read aomewhere recently that Blu-ray hardware is already outpacing DVD hardware? And I definitely remember reading that DVD hardware production could be phased out by the end of 2009. I think that Blu-ray will take over the percentage of software sales by 2012 and phase out DVD by 2015. DVD took 10 years, Blu-ray will take 8.

It was ahead of the curve, however the last couple of months in the curve were the holiday season wherein DVD exploded. I expect that Blu-Ray is behind right now. I also expect that after the holiday season this year it'll be back out in front.

As an aside, the successor section of the 'DVD' article on Wikipedia was clearly written by either a bitter HD DVD zealot, or a "Downloads" are king person, as it's basically pure FUD.

[Neo65]

I do have to say though that the tv series in highdef look much better than the DVD versions. The CSI franchises and Deadwood come to mind as interesting ones to see --- and the Tudors. In fact, the thought of the 3 seasons of Deadwood in not just highdef, but also all the subtleties of Swearengen talking in lossless audio could be somewhat interesting...

[BirdManJr]

Alot of people still don't understand blu-ray

It was a easier transition...when everything went from a vhs tape to a dvd disc...blu-ray = very nice picture on hdtv dvd = normal picture
both discs....Usually older people i talk to dont understand the difference....I think blu-ray will do excellent...thats all i buy....
But the next thing to blow everyone away will be something that is totally different from what we have now....Like vhs tape to dvd disc
next will be something different....Someone is probably either working on it or has it ready as we speak

[BluMood]

Folks will buy into HDTV. IT'S the craze. Blu-ray is a part of the conversion process. After watching broadcast HDTV they will make the mistake of hooking up the ole DVD player and begin to PUKE. A lot of factors involved here. The move to all digital signals will be another death blow to DVD. After seeing the best picture and sound people WILL convert to Blu-ray. As prices of the players drop within $100.00 or so of DVD the end of DVD will come.

[RustyK94]

I usually get into huge arguments on sites like DVD TALK when you say things like Blu-Ray will overtake in 4 years. These ppl while yes some of them have Blu-Ray a lot don't. Are still investing thousands of dollars in building huge collections of movies on DVD thinking it will never end.

The truth is i think and many others more in the know than me believe that Blu-Ray sales will top DVD by the end of 2012 and send DVD into the niche market for a couple of years before fading out all together. While yes DVD was good it's over and the sooner these so called movie fans make the jump the better.

I have because i know a Blu-Ray disc i buy to day i won't have to buy again in ten years time cause there is not going to be better format in ten years that's going to overtake Blu-Ray. Still these ppl will be happy watching say once upon a time in america in low res having to switching discs half way through the movie.

I mean the writing was on the wall in 2002 when Blu-Ray was first announced that's why i never built a massive DVD collection cause i knew Blu-Ray would come good become the ultimate home media format.

I doubt your going to see a new format in the works by 2010 try 2018 at the earliest cause studios are going to focus on download not to take over Blu-Ray but to make up lost revenue from physical sales.

I still rent DVD s if there's a film i must see right away but that's it. I will never invest my money in building a huge collection of DVD s.

Ether movie fans jump ship now or get left behind.

[Fozziwig]

Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate.

I can't be the only one that thinks this is total bullshit. So DVD only "really penetrated" in 2007?

I think most people would accept that DVD had been firmly established as the top home video format by 2002 (some might reasonably argue even earlier) - just 5 years after launch.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I can't be the only one that thinks this is total bullshit. So DVD only "really penetrated" in 2007?

I think most people would accept that DVD had been firmly established as the top home video format by 2002 (some might reasonably argue even earlier) - just 5 years after launch.

No it was after rental sales in July 2003 exceeded VHS. That made VHS a niche format until 2005 when the final VHS was released (history of violence).

[aviman33]

Some of you guys are so out of touch with the public. You think it's because people don't understand Blu-Ray or if they see it, they will appreciate it and buy into it. Here is what you missing. Blu-Ray is just another method of packaging and presenting a movie. To most people, watching a movie is just like reading a book. Whether the cover is leather or paper and whether the pages are high quality or recycled rag the story reads the same. Most people watch the movie for the story, and the story does not need Blu-Ray. People flocked to DVD because, they didn't have to rewind it and there was no tape for the deck to eat. In contrast, some of us are hair shirted nerds who buy garbage movies just because they are an excellent test of our AV systems. I wonder who just doesn't get it?

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by aviman33

People flocked to DVD because, they didn't have to rewind it and there was no tape for the deck to eat(...)I wonder who just doesn't get it?

I'd go with you, if for no other reason than the fact that people did not flock to DVD.

DVD followed the same pattern of purchase as every other media which has succeeded...the same progression that Blu-Ray is on now. Seriously, get over yourself. You don't understand some magical "truth" that the rest of us just don't see.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I'd go with you, if for no other reason than the fact that people did not flock to DVD.

DVD followed the same pattern of purchase as every other media which has succeeded...the same progression that Blu-Ray is on now. Seriously, get over yourself. You don't understand some magical "truth" that the rest of us just don't see.

The difference is though that Blu-Ray is being adopted quicker than DvD

Because
1.The PS3 was released early on in the formats life making it very good entry player
2.Ppl are already accustomed to discs and digital media
3.All Blu-Ray players have DVD playback

[TheTenth]

I still have to see any good implementation of internet connectivity :
- chat during movie : wtf??? I'm already not going to the cinema anymore because of people talkin and making noises during the movie, now I could get this at home?
- let others have control of movie playback : so if someone want to pee or grab a snack, they'll pause the movie or mistakenly stop? no point at all
- download trailers, special features from the movie site? the only good thing that could come from that is sell a barebones (only the movie) disc, of course cheaper for the customer, and those who want can go to the site and choose waht they want ; but of course noone with deciding power could think of such a simple and efficient thing

[aviman33]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

The difference is though that Blu-Ray is being adopted quicker than DvD

Because
1.The PS3 was released early on in the formats life making it very good entry player
2.Ppl are already accustomed to discs and digital media
3.All Blu-Ray players have DVD playback

Other than PQ & AQ, Blu doesn't bring any new conveince factors to the game. It's the same DVD type package. We're an exception to the rule, most people really don't care about PQ & AQ.

[Teazle]

Blu's chances of replacing DVD in the medium- to long-term are 100%. (Reasons given in my other posts on this topic.)

[mr.hidef]

Originally Posted by sleazypig

Yea but remember the movie companies do not want to put a whole seriese on one disc they will want you to buy a few disc sets at a time. So they will put Sd only material on dvd. But Dvd will become rarer and rarer as the years go by. Also this is going to take a decade before Dvd becomes rare remember there are alot of people still using analog tvs. I was at A walmart and I saw a family buy 4 converter boxes for the switch to digital so we have a ways to go.

If you are a purple people eater (VIKINGS), then what's with the wisconsin badger?

[Anthony P]

Dvd will allways be around for content that can't be remastered in high definition. I am talking about old tv seriese that where shot on tape instead of film. It would be pointless to bring stuff like that on Blu-ray. And its not like those Dvds won't work on Blu-ray players.

not at all it is just as ludicrous as saying a few years back that VHS will always be around because some content only exists (either created or the original film master is destroyed) on VHS. What thy did is just port it to DVD. In the end you need to look at the obvious, at some point DVD replication demand will be so litlle that it would not make sence for any replicator to continue replicating DVDs.

[Driver_King]

I would like to see the ability to watch a movie with a friend simultaneously. That would be great.

" Hey, you want to come over to watch *Insert name of Blu-ray movie*? " I can't come over now, because *Insert reason*. But I can watch it with BD-Live if you'd like." " Why sure! Let's watch *Insert name of Blu-ray movie* together."

Something like that would be great. Maybe you could use the PS Eye for PIP when you press a button on the controller to have a video chat while watching the movie. That would be great for people with PS3's and would open up a whole new world of Blu-ray entertainment for other companies to develop and improve on Blu-ray's interactivity. Then Blu-ray's would rule the world and blah blah blah...

[Anthony P]

It was a easier transition...when everything went from a vhs tape to a dvd disc...blu-ray = very nice picture on hdtv dvd = normal picture

not at all quite the opposite, let me ask you this

If you hads a VHS camcorder and many VHS tapes with home movies that you want to be able to see is it easy to get rid of the VHS player? If you have your home movies on DVDs and a mini DVD camcorder is it easy to go BD?

If you have kids that want to see that same show/movie 3x a day and it was on VHS was it easy to give up your VHS player? if it is now on DVD is it easy to give up the DVD player?

If you had a large library of VHS movies was it easy to give up your VHS player, if you have a large library of DVDs is it easyt to give up your DVD player?

If you used your VHS player to tape several shows when you where out was it easy to give up your VHS player? is it harder to give up your DVD player?


The reality is that for most people it was extremely hard to give up on VHS and it is why VHS took so long to go away. Many early on where "why would I give up my VHS when I can do X (where X is one of the stuff mentioned above) and I can't with DVD. I will stick with VHS for now" but then combo players came out, PVRs, none VHS friendly camcorders.... and DVD could be more easily adopted.

[Anthony P]

I would like to see the ability to watch a movie with a friend simultaneously. That would be great.

why? I like seeing a movie with other people (especially comedy which sounds better when a few people are laughing at the joke) but why would anyone want to watch the same movie with someone far away and be synchronized? the most annoying thing is when you try and enjoy a movie and someone is talking.

[Anthony P]

I can't be the only one that thinks this is total bullshit. So DVD only "really penetrated" in 2007?

first question I had. I assumed he meant it was close to 10 years before VHS disappeared