Blu-ray's Chances Against DVD

[Driver_King]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

why? I like seeing a movie with other people (especially comedy which sounds better when a few people are laughing at the joke) but why would anyone want to watch the same movie with someone far away and be synchronized? the most annoying thing is when you try and enjoy a movie and someone is talking.

Read the rest of my post please.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

why? I like seeing a movie with other people (especially comedy which sounds better when a few people are laughing at the joke) but why would anyone want to watch the same movie with someone far away and be synchronized? the most annoying thing is when you try and enjoy a movie and someone is talking.

There may be certain titles for which a "group" viewing may be more interesting (e.g. think Rocky Horror Picture Show).

[Anthony P]

Read the rest of my post please.

unless it was written sarcastically (which it is not obvious, because let's face it Warner must have thought some would think it a good idea since they added that feature to the HP HD DVD) I don't see what you think I missed the first time.

There may be certain titles for which a "group" viewing may be more interesting (e.g. think Rocky Horror Picture Show).

I agree RHPS needs a full house, which is why I never bought it and why I see it in theatres when it plays, but two people over live chat (be it text or audio or A/V) won't help.

In the end it is just an opinion, if you want to pretend to have friends while each one stays at home and watches the same movie at the same time then so be it but I don't see any benefit.

[sleazypig]

Originally Posted by mr.hidef

If you are a purple people eater (VIKINGS), then what's with the wisconsin badger?

My High school colors where purple

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I agree RHPS needs a full house, which is why I never bought it and why I see it in theatres when it plays, but two people over live chat (be it text or audio or A/V) won't help.

In the end it is just an opinion, if you want to pretend to have friends while each one stays at home and watches the same movie at the same time then so be it but I don't see any benefit.

Clearly you don't. Based on this and other threads you have no interest in BD-Live, and any examples that anyone here could come up with, or that the studios themselves have put forth, don't excite you.

That's fine.

Other people, and the studios, seem to see a lot of potential.

Time will tell.

[Anthony P]

Clearly you don't. Based on this and other threads you have no interest in BD-Live, and any examples that anyone here could come up with, or that the studios themselves have put forth, don't excite you.

true no one has given any remotely interesting examples of BD-live, but don't get me wrong, I don't have anything against it. THis wasn't even BD-live related.

I just found it interesting that he was saying he would love to have 1/4 of the screen taken over and blocked by his friend while they both talk to each other during the movie. Doesn't he (or you) actually care for the movie. The most annoying thing to me is some idiot talking through the movie, even more if someone blocks the view. If you enjoy that and you don't care about seeing and listening to the movie then so be it, you have that choice at home. I just think it odd that someone would look forward to it and actually ask for it. What next start sticking gum under your seat and spilling soda on purpose to get that sticky floor feeling, and an auto red LED flash light spot?

[Clark Kent]

Dvd as a viable home video platform is doomed. It is that simple. I'm not prejudiced against dvd in anyway as I still own over 3000 of them. The studios want to transition the declining dvd market(which is undeniable) into the burgeoning Blu-ray market. Dvds will be viewed in several years like VHS is viewed today. Warner's decision assured that Blu-ray will be the dominant home video platform for new releases within four years. You will only be able to buy Blu-ray players(with backwards dvd compatibility) in the major retail chains sooner than you think.

[Anthony P]

CK agree 100%

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by aviman33

Blu-Ray is just another method of packaging and presenting a movie. To most people, watching a movie is just like reading a book. Whether the cover is leather or paper and whether the pages are high quality or recycled rag the story reads the same. Most people watch the movie for the story, and the story does not need Blu-Ray. People flocked to DVD because, they didn't have to rewind it and there was no tape for the deck to eat. In contrast, some of us are hair shirted nerds who buy garbage movies just because they are an excellent test of our AV systems. I wonder who just doesn't get it?

Sad (to me, at least in that video and audio quality can greatly enhance or detract from the story and/or presentation of a film), but true.

[Driver_King]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

unless it was written sarcastically (which it is not obvious, because let's face it Warner must have thought some would think it a good idea since they added that feature to the HP HD DVD) I don't see what you think I missed the first time.




I agree RHPS needs a full house, which is why I never bought it and why I see it in theatres when it plays, but two people over live chat (be it text or audio or A/V) won't help.

In the end it is just an opinion, if you want to pretend to have friends while each one stays at home and watches the same movie at the same time then so be it but I don't see any benefit.

I don't understand the post bash. I was saying a feature like that could bring interest to Blu-ray and its ability to interact with others. Some people would like it, others maybe not so much. I never said that I would like it. You missed the part where I said something along those lines would be an interesting concept.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

true no one has given any remotely interesting examples of BD-live, but don't get me wrong, I don't have anything against it. THis wasn't even BD-live related.

I just found it interesting that he was saying he would love to have 1/4 of the screen taken over and blocked by his friend while they both talk to each other during the movie. Doesn't he (or you) actually care for the movie. The most annoying thing to me is some idiot talking through the movie, even more if someone blocks the view. If you enjoy that and you don't care about seeing and listening to the movie then so be it, you have that choice at home. I just think it odd that someone would look forward to it and actually ask for it. What next start sticking gum under your seat and spilling soda on purpose to get that sticky floor feeling, and an auto red LED flash light spot?

Everyone gets to choose what they want. I also don't see any value in anything that the interactive side has presented, but presumably there are people who do want to chat during a movie, or perhaps have part of the movie covered up by video conferencing stuff.

I think for most parts, such things are rare. The first time I watch a movie, I want the entire movie and don't see distractions from that as a plus.

However, a movie like "Rocky Horror Picture Show", where it is also a cultural event, if you watched it a dozen times, you "may" decide to have a joint session with all other fans from remote sites.

Note though, I doubt that this chat from internet while watching "Rocky Horror" is going to be that useful. The best experience is still in a theatre watching strangers do god awful fools of themselves and laughing about it --- I dont' see that happening from your home, even with the internet.

Still, everyone gets to choose what they want.

I do have this to say about the Priests of Interactivity. The onus is on them to show us, the people who pay money to buy movies, why it is that this thing is going to be worth even a dollar to us.

IE: They have to spend some effort and prove why this is compelling and have people shell out money for this feature. The old "If we build it, they will come" mantra always has an expiry date, and cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely.

We are talking about engineers working on features, that possibly could be a total waste of their professional lives, or it could be really big. Whatever it is, at some point, you just have to show the world that there's something there, or just move on and let the engineers fix the other bugs in the players instead --- the ones that prevents the movie from playing properly.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by aviman33

Some of you guys are so out of touch with the public. You think it's because people don't understand Blu-Ray or if they see it, they will appreciate it and buy into it. Here is what you missing. Blu-Ray is just another method of packaging and presenting a movie. To most people, watching a movie is just like reading a book. Whether the cover is leather or paper and whether the pages are high quality or recycled rag the story reads the same. Most people watch the movie for the story, and the story does not need Blu-Ray. People flocked to DVD because, they didn't have to rewind it and there was no tape for the deck to eat. In contrast, some of us are hair shirted nerds who buy garbage movies just because they are an excellent test of our AV systems. I wonder who just doesn't get it?

But if movie=joke, then often the same joke delivered by different people often have very different results. If the story is delivered by two different means, and for example, one is printed with better paper, and the prices are similar, over time people will migrate towards the new books using the better paper.

I think once people get used to highdef over cableTV on their HDTV, BD will sell not because they notice the BD versions look better, but more and more will realize that the DVD no longer looks as good as they thought.

I avoided DVDs about 3-4 years ago when I got used to HD cable. The reason is that I don't enjoy the movie as much --- the lack of detail is too distracting and prevents me from enjoing the movie. Now, 6 years ago, I would have thought that DVDs looked great, and the DVDs didn't change, my tolerance bar for the presentation moved.

The concept is not that difficult to understand. Over time, our tastes change. If we become more affluent for example, we will prefer better walking shoes, eat better food, and that's even when the price delta is several multiples!!! Imagine now if a BigMac and a Fillet Mignon are priced only 10% apart, how many more would be willing to pay the 10% for the Fillet Mignon even though in the end, it becomes the same sh*t anyway?

I can imagine that in the past, during the transition from B&W to color TVs, many must have advanced the argument that the TV show is the same, and for many, the same TV show in color is not going to change the experience. And for the programming in the past, it might be so.

But over time, the B&W TVs do disappear, and we'll review this again to see what happens to DVDs when BDs are priced only $1 to $2 over DVDs.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Neo65

However, a movie like "Rocky Horror Picture Show", where it is also a cultural event, if you watched it a dozen times, you "may" decide to have a joint session with all other fans from remote sites.
.

I think it will be the "cult" or fandom movies that would benefit most from this flavor of interactivity. This is a mode where, as you say, the movie has been watched numerous times and forms of group interactivity could provide an alternate experience.

If the studios come up with enough of interest, this will be an additional stickiness factor to encourage ownership (vs rental) and perhaps re-purchase of old titles.

[Peakman]

I think some of your guys are way too much optimistic about Blu-Ray chances against DVD. Blu-Ray will never take DVD place, but I guess it will be possible to get around 20-30% the next 5-7 year in High-Tech countries like US and western-europe.

In my country (Norway) the percentage is around 1.5% for the second Blu-Ray year (its really its 3. year). For DVD against VHS the same number was 10% (28% in year 3, 51% in year 4, 64% in year 5, 85% in year 6, 96% in year 7 and in year 8 it was 100%).

I see some Blu-Ray propaganda says that it sells more players than DVD at the same time. So what! The total marked it much larger, and 2007 was the year in Norway that sold most DVD players since introduction of the format, and you see similar trends in other countries. And every BD player, plays DVD so when somebody buys a BD capable player, you don’t what they are using it for. When people bought DVD they could not play VHS on that machine.

People don’t care about blu-ray. The movie experience is almost the same as DVD.
The only way BD can win over DVD is if the movie companies stop producing DVD. (not likely to happen)

[Anthony P]

I think some of your guys are way too much optimistic about Blu-Ray chances against DVD. Blu-Ray will never take DVD place, but I guess it will be possible to get around 20-30% the next 5-7 year in High-Tech countries like US and western-europe.

if you think you will be able to buy a DVD player (player that only plays DVD) isn 7 years then you are the one that is off his rocker.

[drobswim13]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

if you think you will be able to buy a DVD player (player that only plays DVD) isn 7 years then you are the one that is off his rocker.

+1

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Peakman

People don’t care about blu-ray. The movie experience is almost the same as DVD.

The only way BD can win over DVD is if the movie companies stop producing DVD. (not likely to happen)

Too much of this kind of thing festering on this forum.

[Peakman]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

if you think you will be able to buy a DVD player (player that only plays DVD) isn 7 years then you are the one that is off his rocker.

As long DVD players can be produced cheaper than BD players, yes i belive it will. The cheapest DVD players cost around 30-40 US dollars in Norway. (has been cheaper in US currency but the low dollar(almost free now) has increased the translated dollar price). And as you know, many people buy compact systems with integreated DVD players. And of course the most important one. All homes have DVD players, so even if they stopped selling it today, it would stil go many many years before 50% of the players was replaced.

In some underdeveloped countries its still possible to buy VHS machines.

[drobswim13]

Originally Posted by Peakman

As long DVD players can be produced cheaper than BD players, yes i belive it will. The cheapest DVD players cost around 30-40 US dollars in Norway. (has been cheaper in US currency but the low dollar(almost free now) has increased the translated dollar price). And as you know, many people buy compact systems with integreated DVD players. And of course the most important one. All homes have DVD players, so even if they stopped selling it today, it would stil go many many years before 50% of the players was replaced.

In some underdeveloped countries its still possible to buy VHS machines.

This may be true, but you have to look at it in the perspective of the US and the few Asian countries that are heavily adopting this format (Japan, China). For the most part, all people who buy new tvs in the US are almost always HD built-in. That being said, they are ready to play movies in that high definition. The cost of blu-ray players will come down just like DVD and VHS did, and once it comes down to a pretty reasonable price, it would be highly likely that you would see a surge of players entering many other countries not ready to take the high def. adaptation. Also, many laptops and desktops are now offering blu-ray drives either built in or as an accessory that you can use for the computer. That will increase blu-ray's success even further. I see your point peakman, but looking through the window of the US, China, and Japan, that argument does not hold up.

[JTK]

The Blu-Ray format has not been out on the streets even a full two years yet. It was streeted in August 2006.

Despite that fact, it just amazes me when I see people proclaiming all this doom and gloom and all of these forecasts of how "BD is never going to make it" and the rest of it like they can see into the future with clarity, when of course they can't.

It really is like being in a time machine and being right back to the early years of DVD. Sure enough, I remember people back then talking about DivX and I remember talk like "There's no way you're going to get people who've invested thousands of dollars in VHS to roll over for DVD unless (fill in the blanks) happens."

If anything the setup for BD is cushier since all BD players play DVDs anyways. The "loss" of going from VHS to DVD was far greater.

I really think a lot of this doom and gloom talk is simply some people putting their own personal desires on the table and not discussing real facts.

There's no way any of us can forecast the future accurately on a format that's been on the streets only two years as of next month.

Sidenote: If Toshiba continues down the road of "We're going to oppose and fight BD at any and all costs" even using DVD itself as a weapon...the corporate stink they mired themselves in thanks to the format war and HD-DVD debacle will only continue to worsen.

Who's to say at some point down the road that Sony Pictures, for one, wouldn't finally cut off DVD support and commit all resources to Blu-Ray only, in partial response to Toshiba's nonsense?

If something like that happened, then it would only a matter time before other dominoes would fall.

You can look around anywhere and see that DVD sales have long since peaked and plateued. They're not going to climb anymore.

Frankly, at this point, nothing would make me happier than to see studios like Sony Pictures, Disney, and the like cut off DVD support at some point and then concentrate on the future, which is Blu-Ray whether some of you like it or not.

In the wake of something like that, then what do you think BD sales would start to look like?

All factors considered, including economies around the world, I think people's heads are going to start turning when they sales data for Blu-Ray come out at the end of this year and holiday season.