Box Office Showdown, 03/20-03/22/2015: Insurgent, Do You Believe?, The Gunman - Blu-ray Forum

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 03:37 AM

Divergent 2: Insurgent (Lionsgate/Summit)
3,750 theaters

Do You Believe? (Pure Flix)
1,300 theaters

The Gunman (Open Road Films)
2,800 theaters

Cinderella (Disney)
3,845 theaters
Second Weekend

--------------------------------------------------

Insurgent will likely be Number 1, though Cinderella might have a terrific second weekend. Let's guess Insurgent's opening weekend gross instead of picking the weekend winner.

Buscemi · 03-11-2015, 03:55 AM

Only doing openers.

Insurgent $40 million (did anyone other than the book series' fans really like the first one?)
Do You Believe? $8 million (this actually looks worse than God's Not Dead and Exodus pretty much killed the religious film for the time being)
The Gunman $7 million

spectre08 · 03-11-2015, 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buscemi

Only doing openers.

Insurgent $40 million (did anyone other than the book series' fans really like the first one?)
Do You Believe? $8 million (this actually looks worse than God's Not Dead and Exodus pretty much killed the religious film for the time being)
The Gunman $7 million

I'm not a fan of the books and I thought it was good, at at least as good as Hunger Games anyways.

I doubt I'll pay full price to see Insurgent, but I'll probably catch a $5 matinee.

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spectre08

I doubt I'll pay full price to see Insurgent, but I'll probably catch a $5 matinee.

There are many promos at Target and Walmart with movie cash for Insurgent.

spectre08 · 03-11-2015, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jscoggins

There are many promos at Target and Walmart with movie cash for Insurgent.

oh you're right! I hadn't even thought of that. Good lookin' out.

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spectre08

oh you're right! I hadn't even thought of that. Good lookin' out.

DanTheMan · 03-11-2015, 04:31 AM

Insurgent has got that weekend in the bag. How much the 3D showings and IMAX showings will help exceed Divergent's numbers, we shall see. I quite liked Divergent.....not as much the first Hunger Games, but enough to where I'm willing to give a sequel a chance.

Insurgent - $35-$40 million
Cinderella - $18-$20 million
Everything else

Buscemi · 03-11-2015, 04:37 AM

Depending on how Cinderella opens, drops will be minimal. It's the first truly family-aimed film since SpongeBob and the next family film opening (Home) will be treated by Fox like a stepchild since part of the DreamWorks output deal (this means not much of a marketing push).

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 04:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dantheman89

Insurgent has got that weekend in the bag. How much the 3D showings and IMAX showings will help exceed Divergent's numbers, we shall see. I quite liked Divergent.....not as much the first Hunger Games, but enough to where I'm willing to give a sequel a chance.

Insurgent - $35-$40 million
Cinderella - $18-$20 million
Everything else

Divergent opened with $54 mil w/o 3D. If Insurgent grosses less than Divergent even with 3D, then the series is in trouble.

DanTheMan · 03-11-2015, 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jscoggins

Divergent opened with $54 mil w/o 3D. If Insurgent grosses less than Divergent even with 3D, then the series is in trouble.

I would've given it more opening weekend since the non-2D showings will help, but since Cinderella is in it's second weekend competing against it, I'm factoring in families who will flocking to see the Disney film instead, taking away a good portion of Insurgent's money. Fans of the novel and the first film will really have to support Insurgent IMO.

By any chance, did Divergent have any major competition last March on opening weekend?

Buscemi · 03-11-2015, 04:52 AM

Divergent had a very mixed critical and audience reception (despite the A- Cinemascore, which was heavily biased towards fans of the book) and wasn't the next Twilight/Hunger Games that Lionsgate hoped for. The decision to post-convert to 3-D was a late one made out of desperation (same thing happened with last year's Need for Speed).

As for Divergent's competition, not really. Muppets Most Wanted, God's Not Dead and The Grand Budapest Hotel (which had gone wider that weekend) were sold to different audiences and other movies had tailed off (300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody and Sherman) or died almost immediately (the aforementioned Need for Speed).

MikeScott · 03-11-2015, 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buscemi

Only doing openers.

Insurgent $40 million (did anyone other than the book series' fans really like the first one?)

I've never read the books but I thought the first was really good. Not too far behind the first Hunger Games in terms of quality. Gave Divergent an A-.

spectre08 · 03-11-2015, 05:26 AM

I feel the only thing that held or is holding the Insurgent series back is that people look at it like a Hunger Games rip off or just another throw-away YA adaptation.

That's true, to a point. But I think that in a world that isn't producing YA book movies every other day it would have been recognized as a better movie.

On it's own merits it's a good film.

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 05:31 AM

The comparisons to The Hunger Games don't really make sense beyond the facts that the stories are set in the future and focus on female protagonists. MifuneFan pointed this out in other threads, and the author has admitted it in interviews -- Divergent is really more inspired by Harry Potter than anything else.

DanTheMan · 03-11-2015, 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jscoggins

The comparisons to The Hunger Games don't really make sense beyond the facts that the stories are set in the future and focus on female protagonists. MifuneFan pointed this out in other threads, and the author has admitted it in interviews -- Divergent is really more inspired by Harry Potter than anything else.

Especially the choosing/placement of factions.

spectre08 · 03-11-2015, 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dantheman89

Especially the choosing/placement of factions.

my god man. how did I never notice that? you're absolutely right.

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 05:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dantheman89

Especially the choosing/placement of factions.

MikeScott · 03-11-2015, 06:09 AM

INSURGENT - 63.8 MILLION
THE GUNMAN - 7 MILLION
DO YOU BELIEVE? - 6 MILLION

The fan-base has expanded a bit since Divergent. That movie actually had fairly solid legs. Woodley is also a bigger star since that opened with that film and The Fault in Our Stars. Speaking of that they are wisely making sure to show her co-star in both films, Ansel Elgort, fairly frequently in the ads. I imagine there will be some excitement among Fault fans in seeing the two on screen together again. Plus this has 3D and IMAX to boost its gross. I don't see how it fails to at least reach 60 Million opening weekend. I wouldn't even be a bit surprised if it does a bit more.

jscoggins · 03-11-2015, 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeScott

INSURGENT - 63.8 MILLION
THE GUNMAN - 7 MILLION
DO YOU BELIEVE? - 6 MILLION

The fan-base has expanded a bit since Divergent. That movie actually had fairly solid legs. Woodley is also a bigger star since that opened with that film and The Fault in Our Stars. Speaking of that they are wisely making sure to show her co-star in both films, Ansel Elgort, fairly frequently in the ads. I imagine there will be some excitement among Fault fans in seeing the two on screen together again. Plus this has 3D and IMAX to boost its gross. I don't see how it fails to at least reach 60 Million opening weekend. I wouldn't even be a bit surprised if it does a bit more.

spectre08 · 03-11-2015, 01:26 PM

I'm becoming a big fan of Miles Teller. He's been absolutely brilliant in everything I've seen him in so far.

View Poll Results: How much will Insurgent gross during its opening weekend?
$40 mil	2	13.33%
$45 mil	3	20.00%
$50 mil	4	26.67%
$55 mil	2	13.33%
$60 mil	4	26.67%
$65+ mil	0	0%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

03-11-2015, 03:37 AM	#1
jscoggins Banned Top contributor Member since:Apr 2014 Trading Score:115	Box Office Showdown, 03/20-03/22/2015: Insurgent, Do You Believe?, The Gunman Divergent 2: Insurgent (Lionsgate/Summit) 3,750 theaters Do You Believe? (Pure Flix) 1,300 theaters The Gunman (Open Road Films) 2,800 theaters Cinderella (Disney) 3,845 theaters Second Weekend -------------------------------------------------- Insurgent will likely be Number 1, though Cinderella might have a terrific second weekend. Let's guess Insurgent's opening weekend gross instead of picking the weekend winner. Last edited by jscoggins; 03-14-2015 at 02:46 PM.

03-11-2015, 03:55 AM	#2
Buscemi Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Aug 2013 4K collection:10 Blu-ray collection:3835	Only doing openers. Insurgent $40 million (did anyone other than the book series' fans really like the first one?) Do You Believe? $8 million (this actually looks worse than God's Not Dead and Exodus pretty much killed the religious film for the time being) The Gunman $7 million

03-11-2015, 04:31 AM	#7
DanTheMan Blu-ray King Member since:Dec 2010 4K collection:593 Blu-ray collection:2319 Digital collection:438 iTunes collection:330 Trading Score:138	Insurgent has got that weekend in the bag. How much the 3D showings and IMAX showings will help exceed Divergent's numbers, we shall see. I quite liked Divergent.....not as much the first Hunger Games, but enough to where I'm willing to give a sequel a chance. Insurgent - $35-$40 million Cinderella - $18-$20 million Everything else

03-11-2015, 04:37 AM	#8
Buscemi Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Aug 2013 4K collection:10 Blu-ray collection:3835	Depending on how Cinderella opens, drops will be minimal. It's the first truly family-aimed film since SpongeBob and the next family film opening (Home) will be treated by Fox like a stepchild since part of the DreamWorks output deal (this means not much of a marketing push).

03-11-2015, 04:52 AM	#11
Buscemi Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Aug 2013 4K collection:10 Blu-ray collection:3835	Divergent had a very mixed critical and audience reception (despite the A- Cinemascore, which was heavily biased towards fans of the book) and wasn't the next Twilight/Hunger Games that Lionsgate hoped for. The decision to post-convert to 3-D was a late one made out of desperation (same thing happened with last year's Need for Speed). As for Divergent's competition, not really. Muppets Most Wanted, God's Not Dead and The Grand Budapest Hotel (which had gone wider that weekend) were sold to different audiences and other movies had tailed off (300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody and Sherman) or died almost immediately (the aforementioned Need for Speed).

03-11-2015, 05:26 AM	#13
spectre08 Blu-ray Knight Member since:Feb 2015 Location:Dallas, TX Blu-ray collection:538 DVD collection:25 Trading Score:49	I feel the only thing that held or is holding the Insurgent series back is that people look at it like a Hunger Games rip off or just another throw-away YA adaptation. That's true, to a point. But I think that in a world that isn't producing YA book movies every other day it would have been recognized as a better movie. On it's own merits it's a good film.

03-11-2015, 05:31 AM	#14
jscoggins Banned Top contributor Member since:Apr 2014 Trading Score:115	The comparisons to The Hunger Games don't really make sense beyond the facts that the stories are set in the future and focus on female protagonists. MifuneFan pointed this out in other threads, and the author has admitted it in interviews -- Divergent is really more inspired by Harry Potter than anything else.

03-11-2015, 06:09 AM	#18
MikeScott Blu-ray Champion Member since:Jul 2010 Location:Minnesota Trading Score:503	INSURGENT - 63.8 MILLION THE GUNMAN - 7 MILLION DO YOU BELIEVE? - 6 MILLION The fan-base has expanded a bit since Divergent. That movie actually had fairly solid legs. Woodley is also a bigger star since that opened with that film and The Fault in Our Stars. Speaking of that they are wisely making sure to show her co-star in both films, Ansel Elgort, fairly frequently in the ads. I imagine there will be some excitement among Fault fans in seeing the two on screen together again. Plus this has 3D and IMAX to boost its gross. I don't see how it fails to at least reach 60 Million opening weekend. I wouldn't even be a bit surprised if it does a bit more.

03-11-2015, 01:26 PM	#20
spectre08 Blu-ray Knight Member since:Feb 2015 Location:Dallas, TX Blu-ray collection:538 DVD collection:25 Trading Score:49	I'm becoming a big fan of Miles Teller. He's been absolutely brilliant in everything I've seen him in so far.

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