Blu-ray has progressed more in 2 years than LaserDisc in a decade

[Grubert]

You probably have read that blog post on Yahoo where they said that Blu-ray was "the next LaserDisc," or in the words of the writer, an "oddball obscurity."

Well I don't have my own blog to rant on this, so you'll excuse me if I place my soapbox here.

For reference, LaserDisc launched (under the name Discovision) in 1978. Blu-ray launched in the US in June 2006.


Hardware penetration

In 1994 (16 years since inception), 1.6% of US households had a LaserDisc player (link).
In 2008 (2 years since inception), 1.7% of US households have a standalone Blu-ray player, and that's not counting PS3s (link)


Software penetration

In 1994, LaserDisc inception-to-date US software sales were 8.3 million (link).
By mid-2008, Blu-ray inception-to date US software sales were over 13 million: 5.7 million in 2006-2007 (link) and 7.37 million in Jan-Jun 2008 (link).

Hence, if hardware and software sales are considered, Blu-ray has already 'succeeded' more than LaserDisc ever did.

______________________

"During its prime, there was something very special about being a laserdisc collector. It was like belonging to an elite club of enthusiasts, each of which feeling that they were among the very few who actually cared about the presentation of movies on video. In my own town of Boston, there was once a store called LaserCraze which issued all of its purchases and rentals in plastic shopping bags with a distinctive orange spiral logo. If you walked down the streets and saw one of those bags you would know that someone else out there shared your feelings, even if you knew nothing else about that person."
-Joshua Zyber, LaserDisc forever

[jasontkelley1746]

not a very hard accomplishment.

[BACsader]

But wait, isn't Blu-ray going under? iTunes is going to take over? =)

[benricci]

For a format that was around 20 years, that's pretty pathetic. I didn't realize how crappy the stats were on laserdisc sales.

[Banjo]

Originally Posted by benricci

For a format that was around 20 years, that's pretty pathetic. I didn't realize how crappy the stats were on laserdisc sales.

It was always a niche format. But I don't believe Blu-ray Disc will become a niche format. It is definitely heading for the mainstream status. It's just a matter of time.

[FinalEvangelion]

Thanks for the stats. It's very much appreciated to get some real facts without any spin.

It will definitely hit mainstream status in a while. Once recording capabilities are fully tapped outside of Japan (I live here and it's a huge market) and two of the three consoles (PS4 and Xbox 720) have it, the format will not go anywhere. Yes, I do think Xbox 720 will have a BD drive standard, whether it goes against MS ideals or not.

[CrabbyAzz]

I really don't think thats a valid comparison. It was very apparent that Laser disc was going to be a niche format within a year of it's release. People couldn't record on it and no one was interested in renting them. That's why it went nowhere. But delvelopers continued to support it similiar to mini disc and SACD.

[andyman1970]

Originally Posted by BACsader

But wait, isn't Blu-ray going under? iTunes is going to take over? =)

iTunes sucks. The quality of the music download is sub par, you can only burn a CD you purchased from them a certain # of times and not to mention that the quality of a burned CD isn't near as good as a CD you buy from the store. Much lossy audio quality and the movie and TV show downloads will have the same lack of quality. It's basically for cheapskates and computer geeks that want to sound cool. The only purpose I'd have for is to just buy one or two songs, but then again I could do without.

[Chevypower]

It's dumb to compare anything to LaserDisc now. I remember thinking when I had LaserDiscs, "when will they come out with something where you don't need to change sides?" The day they announced DVDs, I jumped for joy and sold all the Laserdiscs I had. I knew it would be a success, not just to LaserDisc, but to VHS also. Plus LaserDisc only ever had a niche market. I only ever remember buying LaserDiscs from specialty stores, not from mainstream stores. 15 years ago, each movie was double the price of what a Blu-ray movie costs today. I don't think Blu-ray is trying to get the (success?) that LaserDisc had, i think it's aiming for mainstream, and in that case it's got a great start - would have been better without Toshiba, but still has a ways to go.

[Beast]

I don't care what anyone says. I still loved Laserdisc when it was around.

I still have my Star Wars Definative Collection and other titles.

[benricci]

Funny, I still have some cherished discs as well, even though my player is long gone. I think part of me still likes the artwork and gatefold sleeves.

[AintNoSin]

Originally Posted by benricci

Funny, I still have some cherished discs as well, even though my player is long gone. I think part of me still likes the artwork and gatefold sleeves.

I still have my Star Wars trilogy box and the Fantasia CAV box. The extras on those sets are just too nice to part with,

[DavePS3]

Laserdiscs for the most part were VERY expensive. I paid 80.00 on numerous occasions for a disc. They were just too pricey for the average consumer, not to mention the fact that the players were normally around the 700.00 range. They were a videophile medium... a movie buff/rich bugger product. I ended up with 280 of them.

[mikejet]

BD is progressing faster than DVD did.

[Grubert]

An interesting adoption graph has been posted on avs:




DVD beats all
DVD was adopted faster than all the other products featured - yes, faster even than TV. And adoption was slow in the first years until the great jump it made 4 years after introduction.

First years are slow
If we look at penetration percentage 5 years after introduction, Laserdisc, color TV and VCR were negligible; CD was around 5%; B&W TV was around 25%

Are we there yet?
I haven't seen a commonly agreed threshold for mass adoption. If we set the bar for "mass adoption" at 20% penetration of US households, we get, from fastest to slowest:

- DVD: 4 years after introduction (2001)
- B&W TV: 5 years after introduction (1950)
- CD: 8 years after introduction (1991)
- VCR: 11 years after introduction (1986)
- Color TV: 14 years after introduction (1968)
- Laserdisc: never

[Terjyn]

You could also mention individual title sales.

It was a huge deal when a Laserdisc sold 100,000 copies or more.

No LD ever hit 200K sales.

It was considered a success when the Star Wars LD box set sold 15,000 copies. Seriously, think of that in context...Star Wars selling 15K copies on Blu-ray would be the worst disaster ever, but was considered good for LD.

[Blu Titan]

Thanks for the great info Grubert!

[jd213]

Heh, the thread title should probably be "Blu-ray has progressed more in 2 years than LaserDisc in 2 decades" (which more accurately reflects the lifespan of LD and creates a better synergy for the title). I know your data for LD only goes up to 1994, but trust me, it didn't start doing better than BD is after that

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Grubert

An interesting adoption graph has been posted on avs:




DVD beats all
DVD was adopted faster than all the other products featured - yes, faster even than TV. And adoption was slow in the first years until the great jump it made 4 years after introduction.

First years are slow
If we look at penetration percentage 5 years after introduction, Laserdisc, color TV and VCR were negligible; CD was around 5%; B&W TV was around 25%

Are we there yet?
I haven't seen a commonly agreed threshold for mass adoption. If we set the bar for "mass adoption" at 20% penetration of US households, we get, from fastest to slowest:

- DVD: 4 years after introduction (2001)
- B&W TV: 5 years after introduction (1950)
- CD: 8 years after introduction (1991)
- VCR: 11 years after introduction (1986)
- Color TV: 14 years after introduction (1968)
- Laserdisc: never

The key point, look at the first TWO and THREE years after release. DVD was nowhere at two, and less than 5% penetration after three.

And yet, people are making declarations about Blu-ray at 2.5 years.

Gary

[CrabbyAzz]

Originally Posted by jd213

Heh, the thread title should probably be "Blu-ray has progressed more in 2 years than LaserDisc in 2 decades" (which more accurately reflects the lifespan of LD and creates a better synergy for the title). I know your data for LD only goes up to 1994, but trust me, it didn't start doing better than BD is after that

Yes, but it would be a pointless comparison.