Digital home 'still 10 years off'

[thunderhawk]

Digital home 'still 10 years off'

The vision of a digital home in which music and video is streamed between devices is still 10 years away, says a leading music technology businessman.

John MacFarlane, chief executive of Sonos, said neither consumers nor the technology itself were ready.

Sonos makes wireless (wi-fi) music streaming systems, aimed at customers who want to listen to their digital music around the house.

Apple and Microsoft are among many firms betting on the digital home.

Apple manufactures a device, called the Airport Express, which plugs into a hi-fi system and lets users broadcast or "stream" their music from a PC or Mac via a wireless network.


I am a big believer that in six to eight years you will see lots of these devices on store shelves. It's going to be a large market
John McFarlane, Sonos

Similarly PC and Mac users can stream music to an Xbox 360 and to a number of other products from companies such as Philips, Slim Devices, Roku and Belkin.

"The digital home has been talked about for a long time but it's only just starting to happen," said Mr MacFarlane.

"There needs to be enough digital content and the understanding of the technology before the work can get started.

MP3 players

"It's not the mainstream that will know about this yet."

Millions of people now have MP3 players and music tracks downloaded onto computers.

Many technology firms believe customers will want to listen to their music on a home hi-fi and around the house.

As television download services are growing in popularity in the US, observers predict that people will also want to watch video on any TV in the house.

"It will happen in the next 10 to 20 years not in the next two," said Mr MacFarlane.

"Video takes up too much bandwidth to be delivered over current wireless networks.

"The next wi-fi standard is not ready for the mass market yet."

He added: "TV works. Streaming video does not work successfully right now."

Stream video

Owners of an Xbox 360 and a PC running Windows Media Center edition can stream video from the PC to the games console and Mr MacFarlane predicted that Apple would be launching a video streaming product in the near future.

But there are many obstacles to overcome before it became "mass market", he warned.

One of the biggest is the need for a home network to take advantage of music or video streaming.

About one in six homes have a home network in North America, according to a recent report from Forrester Research.

The report's author, Charles S. Golvin, said: "Most networks simply enable basic PC activities like broadband, file and printer sharing.

"The shift to the entertainment-centric network remains well into the future."

According to Forrester, only one in five people who have a home network actually use it to listen to music.

And of people who do not have a home network, one in six said it was because they did not understand what one was.

A recent report commissioned by cable firm NTL Telewest predicted that wireless networks would be in the majority of homes by 2010.

Mr Golvin said manufacturers needed to explain the benefits of home networks to customers and retailers needed to give more space on shelves to networking devices.

Mr MacFarlane said: "I am a big believer that in six to eight years you will see lots of these devices on store shelves. It's going to be a large market."

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/5187382.stm

[Psiweaver]

I fully agree that we still have some time to wait until digital homes become a true reality.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

I fully agree that we still have some time to wait until digital homes become a true reality.

Scientific fact. Any new technology that becomes wide spread usually takes about 50 years to get fully implemented into everyday society. TV started out slow, basically because it was so expensive.

VHS was around for about 30 years and you would be hard pressed to find a home without it. Costs came down, so it sold.

I have a handful of VHS tapes that I will probably hold on to until the day I die. Not that I will ever watch them again. Maybe when I retire.

[Psiweaver]

I will never watch vhs again. Just too awful looking especially on hd tvs.

[hmurchison]

I disagree a bit here.

It barely took computers 15 years to go from products that few households had to today where a family of 4 may have 3-4 computers themselves. I believe that the trend is gaining in speed as the younger generations grow up around computers.

I'd say in 5 years you will see plenty of methods for distributing audio and video around the house via multiple types of networking. 802.11n does have the bandwidth for broadcast HD (19.4Mbps) and Blu-Ray and HD DVD. It also offers Qos (Quality of Service) for prioritization of some data.

I once searched back a decade to see how large hard drives have grown and I found that we're approaching a 1000x improvement.

The only thing we need is a move away from single computer centric applications to more of a Client/Server strategy for home. Your videos and audio files should reside on a media server and be fully infused with metadata that corresponds to the client accessing them. Thus I may rate a movie or audio file with 5 stars and my wife rates it with 2 stars or tags the files in the method that benefits her way of organization.

I'm more worried about software making this leap than hardware. Anyone doing new home construction would be foolish not to prewire with cat5e or cat6 cable.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I disagree a bit here.

It barely took computers 15 years to go from products that few households had to today where a family of 4 may have 3-4 computers themselves. I believe that the trend is gaining in speed as the younger generations grow up around computers.

From your perspective maybe. I started using personal computers at home in the 70s. That's closer to 30 years from being truly cutting edge to being the ubiquitous items they are now.

Historically, I believe the concept has been tied to a generation. It takes a full generation for new technology to be accepted and integrated into society.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'd say in 5 years you will see plenty of methods for distributing audio and video around the house via multiple types of networking. 802.11n does have the bandwidth for broadcast HD (19.4Mbps) and Blu-Ray and HD DVD. It also offers Qos (Quality of Service) for prioritization of some data.

Maybe 19.4 Mbps is OK from the disk itself, but it is no where near the bandwidth needed between the player and the display (monitor/TV). Additionally, 19.4 Mbps assumes a lot of things... including clear channels and no resends. The actual throughput will be significantly less. (How many people actually, routinely get anywhere near 50+ Mbps on 802.11g unless the receiver and transmitter are in the same room?)

Plus, several of the HD disks encoded so far have data rates from the disks themselves that exceed 19.4 Mbps -- some exceed 26 Mbps.

Multiple In, Multiple Out (MIMO) techniques may allow for wireless distribution of content around the house, but these technologies are not quite ready for prime time yet. I believe, general availability *and stability* will be significantly more than five years away.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I once searched back a decade to see how large hard drives have grown and I found that we're approaching a 1000x improvement.

Hard drive evolution is an anomaly and is not directly comparable to any other industry. HDD evolution has sometimes taken huge leaps and quadrupled storage space and speed in under a year. Other times it has stagnated for over two years.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The only thing we need is a move away from single computer centric applications to more of a Client/Server strategy for home. Your videos and audio files should reside on a media server and be fully infused with metadata that corresponds to the client accessing them. Thus I may rate a movie or audio file with 5 stars and my wife rates it with 2 stars or tags the files in the method that benefits her way of organization.

This is an interesting idea, has been discussed for a long time and will most likely be implemented in the future. In fact, with a bit of work and some significant cash, you can implement this now. The issue is not so much storage and tagging, etc. but the playing and distribution. As I mentioned above, the bandwith needed between the player and the display is huge. This will be a relatively short wire for the foreseeable future.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm more worried about software making this leap than hardware.

Depends upon your timeframe, but in general I agree with this statement.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Anyone doing new home construction would be foolish not to prewire with cat5e or cat6 cable.

Anyone installing Cat5e today is, IMHO, foolish.

Cat3 is plenty for voice and control circuits except in noisy environments (and unless people put their patch panel next to their furnace and/or water heaters with electronic starters, etc. homes rarely qualify as electrically noisy environments). Cat6 is much better than Cat5e for "future proofing". It will easily support gigabit Ethernet over reasonable distances.

If you really want to future proof find someone who will sell you Grade F equipment (which is the basis for the proposed Cat7 stuff and will very likely become the Cat7 standard or be close to it). This will support gigabit Ethernet over significantly longer distances and will support 10 gigabit Ethernet over short distances (like in the home unless you have a huge home).

[Psiweaver]

Yeah We prewire everything for RG6 CAT6 and phone jacks for all audio video locations.

[AV_Integrated]

I've said it for a while now and anyone that doubts it is an... well, they are free to doubt it.

Windows will be pushing the technology I would have to believe. CableCard or SatelliteCard type technologies that integrate with a Windows Media Center (Vista?) PC... Only, it isn't any longer a PC that you use as your home PC. It is a piece of A/V gear that replaces your cable box or your DVD player. It is the type of piece the really reaches beyond what the current HTPCs can offer.

HD disc playback (pick a format) with MMC so that the video can be distributed on the LAN. The ability to watch and record in a firmware upgradable DVR fashion your choice of broadcasting... The ability to sign up and have movies delivered to your home in a resolution that properly matches your display (1080p, 720p, 480p, 480i, etc.) in a Netflix like fashion, except no mailings, no scratched discs, and the movie you want is ALWAYS in stock... not a streaming version - so not VOD - but an allowance to download the movie direct to the MCE unit.

Music is almost a 'perk' at that point.

The real keys will be for some of the technology to become standard from other major manufacturers. Like a Panasonic Plasma that is MCE ready. You turn on the plasma, it connects to the home network, and you can pull up information about stored videos and content from your MCE. The MCE is always 'on' and is available for sending video and music everywhere. Perhaps not HD over wireless... yet. But, a lot of content that currently is a bit of a headache to setup can be done seamlessly in a Tivolike fashion. Or like an iPod interface.

Imagine the technology becoming so ubiquitous that when you go and buy a $50.00 boom box from Wal-Mart it is MCE ready and allows you to wirelessly stream music from your MCE unit to the boombox anywhere in the house - or even outside!

I think 10 years may be optomistic, but there will be major steps along the way that will start this trend into becoming a reality. And I truly believe that this is going to be the reality of the future because it simply makes so much sense.

Unless someone else has a better idea? Everything I have heard just seems like an extension of this idea.

[Psiweaver]

crestron is doing something like this by partnering with tons of companies to enable 2 way communication so that you can control your entire home with your touchscreen remote. Pull up movies and watch them on the remote or assign them to a display in the room adjust the volume, lower the lights, close the blinds etc.

[hmurchison]

Shadowself-

I agree on the generational thing to a point. Each successive generation begins to incorporate more and more technology during the timespan but I do think that significant changes do tend to take almost a generation to reach critical mass.

802.11g clearly isn't enough bandwidth but 802.11n can support over a 100Mbps real world. A couple of APs throughout a house will boost the signal if needed. I can't see how it's going to take 5 years for stability. Currently Draft N products are shipping and in 12-18 months fully ratified 802.11n product should be shipping and fairly reliable.

Hard Drive evolution mirrors the advancements in microprocessors. Gordon Moore was right and in actuality he could have extended his "prophesy" to storage as well. Seagate could ship a Terabyte+ drive right now but for marketing reasons they don't.

Yes I chose Cat5e or Cat6 for gigabit speeds since almost every computer beyond the entry level supports Gigabit now. Hell if I had my druthers I'd install Fibre in my home if given the chance. Cat7 sounds neat but it's still not as immune to tapping and electrical emmisions compared to Fibre.

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

Yeah We prewire everything for RG6 CAT6 and phone jacks for all audio video locations.

Smart man. You will have plenty of distribution options for the future.

10 years is a good bet because it depends on who you ask. A/V Enthusiasts will be there in 5 but if you're talking about Joe6pack then you have to give them a bit more time for this stuff to hit Best Buy and Walmart.

I know a guy already that has a Home Automation system for viewing movies and distributing music all ran by a touchpad. He installed it himself piece by piece.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

I've said it for a while now and anyone that doubts it is an... well, they are free to doubt it.

Windows will be pushing the technology I would have to believe. CableCard or SatelliteCard type technologies that integrate with a Windows Media Center (Vista?) PC... Only, it isn't any longer a PC that you use as your home PC. It is a piece of A/V gear that replaces your cable box or your DVD player. It is the type of piece the really reaches beyond what the current HTPCs can offer.

I am completely and spectacularly unimpressed with every version of Windows based HTPC (hardware and software) I've seen so far. I find it very difficult to believe they will suddenly get it right. Just for the record, I believe Apple is even farther behind than Microsoft.

I would not be surprised in the least if some relatively unknown player were to jump in and fill the void.

While I am not a big proponent of Apple's iPod, they did jump in (a bit late) and turn that piece of CE around. Who would have thought it would have been Apple? Certainly not me. The same thing (not Apple, not Microsoft, not Dell, etc.) might happen with a real home multimedia center.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Shadowself-

802.11g clearly isn't enough bandwidth but 802.11n can support over a 100Mbps real world. A couple of APs throughout a house will boost the signal if needed.

Maybe I wasn't clear. I used 802.11g as an example which gives a common point of reference. It illustrates that the average user gest no where near the rated speeds. Wireless systems rarely have a practical limit that is even half of the stated rate. (Hell, gigabit Ethernet typically has a useful bandwidth of only 300 - 400 Mbps and that's wired!)

My point was that even 802.11n (even at 100-200 Mbps [often only in "same room" situations and a fraction of the rated max of 540 Mbps]) is far below the required bandwidth between the HD player and the HD display (typically 1.2 Gbps or more not including overhead such as handshaking, forward error correction coding, etc. which could easily balloon the bandwith requirement to over 2 Gbps). I know of no wireless technology which is slated for the consumer market in the next 5-10 years which will support those data rates. Even 10 Gbps Ethernet will not have a huge amount of headroom transporting that data.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I can't see how it's going to take 5 years for stability. Currently Draft N products are shipping and in 12-18 months fully ratified 802.11n product should be shipping and fairly reliable.

My only hope is that anyone who buys pre ratification hardware makes 100% sure (*not 99.999% sure*) that the hardware will be flash upgradeable to the final standard. Personally, I would not buy tranceivers (unless I had a critical need) which was not based upon a ratified standard. Then I'd suggest commodity shoppers (not those willing to live on the leading edge) wait another 18 months for bugs to get worked out. This would put a typical home buyer out 36 months from now.

While I woule never suggest even the A/V addict do this, for those willing to live on the truly bleading edge there are ways to do short range wireless implementations of multiple gigabit data rates now. You just have to give up all this C-band stuff and move to Ka, V or W-band. ;-)

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Hard Drive evolution mirrors the advancements in microprocessors. Gordon Moore was right and in actuality he could have extended his "prophesy" to storage as well. Seagate could ship a Terabyte+ drive right now but for marketing reasons they don't.

Actually they don't for technical reasons... reliability of being able to read and write in perpendicular recording. It's just not there yet for TB disks. There is a reason no one else even ships anything beyond 500GB. Seagate is pushing the envelope right now with their 750 GB drives. Sure... all the majors will have 750 GB drives withing 12 months from now. But I'm not even confident that Seagate will be shipping a TB drive by then.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Yes I chose Cat5e or Cat6 for gigabit speeds since almost every computer beyond the entry level supports Gigabit now. Hell if I had my druthers I'd install Fibre in my home if given the chance. Cat7 sounds neat but it's still not as immune to tapping and electrical emmisions compared to Fibre.

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by Shadowself

I am completely and spectacularly unimpressed with every version of Windows based HTPC (hardware and software) I've seen so far. I find it very difficult to believe they will suddenly get it right. Just for the record, I believe Apple is even farther behind than Microsoft.

Including X-Box 360?

I really think that we will be looking more at a full scale effort for a very specific technology and device that fits the need. HTPCs are still PCs. They aren't A/V components. That's what will change. The system will be like X360, or PS3. It'll incorporate everything that the family wants and reach far beyond current standards and expectations. A ground up design that is rock solid and isn't like a Windows OS - but is more like an iPod. You use it, it works, it is EASY to use, and people begin to flock to it. While it could come from someone other than M$, it will really need to go beyond proprietary formats and beyond single companies.

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

crestron is doing something like this by partnering with tons of companies to enable 2 way communication so that you can control your entire home with your touchscreen remote. Pull up movies and watch them on the remote or assign them to a display in the room adjust the volume, lower the lights, close the blinds etc.

Crestron?

Hmmm... any more info on them?

(bonus points if you figure out the joke in this)

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Shadowself

Actually they don't for technical reasons... reliability of being able to read and write in perpendicular recording. It's just not there yet for TB disks. There is a reason no one else even ships anything beyond 500GB. Seagate is pushing the envelope right now with their 750 GB drives. Sure... all the majors will have 750 GB drives withing 12 months from now. But I'm not even confident that Seagate will be shipping a TB drive by then.

I think they can and here's why.

1. They announced a 300GB 15K drive featuring perpendicular recording.
http://www.seagate.com/cda/newsinfo/newsroom/releases/article/0,1121,3116^3,00.html

I don't see why they'd struggle to support more data at half the rotational speed.

2. Current areal density is about 188MB per platter

http://www.seagate.com/cda/newsinfo/newsroom/releases/article/0,1121,3150^3,00.html

Thus if we add another platter we're at the threshhold of 1GB drives.

I think Seagate just likes to keep drives to 4 platters or less. Once they hit an areal density of 250MB per platter they'll ship a 1TB drive.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

Including X-Box 360?

Not even close.

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

A ground up design that is rock solid and isn't like a Windows OS - but is more like an iPod. You use it, it works, it is EASY to use, and people begin to flock to it. While it could come from someone other than M$, it will really need to go beyond proprietary formats and beyond single companies.

That's why I think it is quite possible an atypical source may produce that "next generation A/V integrated system".

As just one very limited example... It cannot have menus upon menus upon menus upon menus to navigate through to play a given song or video or purchase something for download or stream real time.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I think they can and here's why.

1. They announced a 300GB 15K drive featuring perpendicular recording.
http://www.seagate.com/cda/newsinfo/newsroom/releases/article/0,1121,3116^3,00.html

I don't see why they'd struggle to support more data at half the rotational speed.

2. Current areal density is about 188MB per platter

http://www.seagate.com/cda/newsinfo/newsroom/releases/article/0,1121,3150^3,00.html

Thus if we add another platter we're at the threshhold of 1GB drives.

I think Seagate just likes to keep drives to 4 platters or less. Once they hit an areal density of 250MB per platter they'll ship a 1TB drive.

The 15k drives live by a very different set of rules than the high density drives. They are all about speed. I will be extremely surprised if we see a 1 TB 15K drive before mid 2008. We should not even be talking about 15K drives when discussing high density.

Sure they could add more platters to the Baracuda line... but I doubt they could in a standard height 3.5 inch drive which is what I assumed we were discussing. Going to more platters takes more height. (In the early 90s there were variations of drives which had up to 8 platters and some even had two read/write heads per platter, but I know of none shipping now.)

As you say, they will get to 250 MB per platter, but that isn't today and thus they are not shipping 1 TB drives -- and no one but Seagate is more than half that value.

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by Shadowself

That's why I think it is quite possible an atypical source may produce that "next generation A/V integrated system".

Yes, but here's the kicker - I don't think any atypical source can do it. It must be a true collaborative effort from major companies. Much like the Blu-ray push is. Up to this point, it is all petty bickering and proprietary control and formats. Sonos, as an example, is Sonos and doesn't exactly design their system to work with say... Sonance, or Pronto remotes... or Harmony remotes. They are Sonos and if that's what you want - then that's what you live with.

So, it will take a Sony or more likely a M$ who can really work to push the industry towards something and has the clout and vision to do it. No small potatoes company is likely to achieve it. But, once again, all IMO.

As for menus, it becomes difficult to get away from them, but for YEARS I have believed that a microphone is desperately needed in these systems! Built into the wireless remote...

"Play, Movie, Armagedon"
"Play, Music, Album, Hysteria"
"Show, CNN"

Combined with the basic iPod like menus/Tivo like stuff and a decent remote and it all comes together nicely.