5 Big Lies in HDTV - pro BD (not BD-live) article

[FinalEvangelion]

4. The Blu-ray Picture Is Not Much Better Than a DVD Or Digital Download
This big whopper often is uttered by members of the technology press, particularly those who believe that digital downloads are the real future of home video. Desperate to criticize the Blu-ray high-def disc, some journalists will downplay its picture quality while overestimate the picture quality of a download sent over the Net to your TV. But consumer studies -- and scientific ones -- have shown that the Blu-ray picture is dramatically better than a DVD, a digital download or anything else that's out there, including cable, satellite and the telcos.

So, Why Lie?
Many tech journalists are not comfortable unless they are promoting cutting edge products, such as digital downloads. To them, Blu-ray is old-fashioned, just another hard disc like a standard-def DVD. It's much sexier to write about new technologies that can stream video over the Net to your televisions. So, in their zeal, the journalists tend to overestimate the qualities of digital downloads to justify their position.

This Big Lie is supported by companies pushing digital download services, such as Microsoft, Apple and others. They use the journalists' writings to back their claims in the marketplace that downloads are just as good (or better) than Blu-ray.

But, it's just a lie.

5. Americans Want to Interact With Their Blu-ray Discs
The studios are stuffing new interactive features in Blu-ray discs that will permit you to do everything from download ringtones and movie trailers to chatting with fellow Blu-ray owners. Judging from comments from studio executives, you would think that millions of Americans are more interested in interacting than actually watching the films. They say the ITV features will be the driving point behind the success of Blu-ray.

But, once again, there's no evidence that Americans have suddenly become ITV enthusiasts. In fact, there's about a decade of evidence to suggest they couldn't care less about such features. When they watch TV -- particularly a movie -- they want to relax and enjoy the experience, not be on the edge of their seats, flicking buttons on the remote control. Every Interactive TV program -- from WebTV to Wink to AOL TV to Microsoft's $6 billion investment in cable ITV -- has failed miserably over the last 15 years.

So, Why Lie?
Some studio executives pushing Blu-ray interactivity are relatively new to the business; they don't have the institutional memories that would remind them that ITV has been a failure. In their minds, it's a new toy that can't miss.

Additionally, some executives are confused about how to market Blu-ray. For some reason, they are not convinced that the disc's better picture is enough to attract a mass audience. So, they have convinced themselves that if they emphasize the format's interactivity, it will somehow trigger more sales.

And finally, some execs are just rolling the dice in the hopes that ITV will finally hit it big. They may not believe in the technology at this point. But they think that if somehow they can change American minds on the subject, it could lead to more advertising revenue as well as disc sales.

But, it's just a lie.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/lies120708.htm


I have to say, I haven't really tried BD-Live and don't have much interest in it either (so I can't fully judge). The picture/audio quality definitely sold me on the format.

I think point #4 is what we have been saying for a long time. Now, some of the Journalists are realizing that BD is having much better sway in the public than DD for the coming years. Several skeptics I know converted to Blu once they actually saw it and stopped believing the anti-hype.

[ThePhantomOak]

Downloads in super high def are coming.

But so is landing a man on Mars.

I think at about the same time.

Originally Posted by FinalEvangelion

http://www.tvpredictions.com/lies120708.htm


I have to say, I haven't really tried BD-Live and don't have much interest in it either (so I can't fully judge). The picture/audio quality definitely sold me on the format.

I think point #4 is what we have been saying for a long time. Now, some of the Journalists are realizing that BD is having much better sway in the public than DD for the coming years. Several skeptics I know converted to Blu once they actually saw it and stopped believing the anti-hype.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by FinalEvangelion

I have to say, I haven't really tried BD-Live and don't have much interest in it either (so I can't fully judge). The picture/audio quality definitely sold me on the format.

The studios are trying to add perceived, and just as important distinguishing, value to the releases, beyond the big PQ/AQ improvement.

It's all experimentation at this point. At some point there will probably be some very cool things. Especially in the interactive IME.

Originally Posted by FinalEvangelion

I think point #4 is what we have been saying for a long time. Now, some of the Journalists are realizing that BD is having much better sway in the public than DD for the coming years. Several skeptics I know converted to Blu once they actually saw it and stopped believing the anti-hype.

We are finally seeing journalists put the "lie" to the test, and do a side-by-side comparisons. And each time it is no contest.

Gary

[TyrantSilkey]

When I was living in Japan in 06/07 I could get 25mbps DSL for $35/month, 50mbps DSL for $42/month, 150mbps fiber optic internet for $50/month, or 1gbps fiber optic internet/cable/phone for $60 a month. And the connections weren't throttled at all. My download speeds were only limited by the write speed of my hard drive. Keep in mind that BD peaks at about 50mbps so for $60 a month I had a connection with 20 times the bandwidth of a BD player.

Granted the exchange rates have changed some since then so the prices aren't the same anymore, but they're still relatively close.

Why is this relevant to America? Well if you do a little research you'll find out that America has thousands of miles of dark fiber sitting around waiting to be lit up. (just type "dark fiber" into google and start searching) When our telecommunications giants put in our internet backbones they planned it to support demand out until 2020 or later and they did so before a little technology called wave division multiplexing came out. Wave division multiplexing takes the light spectrum and dices it into smaller pieces each of which sends data independently, and I believe the newest versions are capable of multiplying the speed of fiber optics by 200. (give it a look on wikipedia, keep in mind that writeup is likely pretty old) As a result, we're using less of our internet backbones now than we were in the late 90s/early 2000's. And the telecom companies are now leasing the unused strands of fiber to banks and other companies that want their own dedicated backbones for additional revenue. (and still leaving the vast majority of the fiber turned off) The sad truth of the matter is almost anyone in a city of 50,000 or more could have 50mbps internet capable of streaming BD quality video and audio in less than a year, the technology is already there, the infrastructure is already there and in most cases installed and ready to go with the flip of a switch, but in the end our bandwidth and download caps are all in place in this country due to corporations trying to milk us for all they can before they give us a tiny upgrade to the next step. Although if Microsoft and a few others are successful in their lobbying efforts that could change fairly fast with a little legislation.

[ryoohki]

Internet is money. Thurst me. They started throtteling the Internet, next the block the download to a fixed amount of GB (already done in a lot of market), next will be Per GB/Cell Phone type contract... it's coming!

[caliminius]

Originally Posted by ThePhantomOak

Downloads in super high def are coming.

But so is landing a man on Mars.

I think at about the same time.

My parents had a 1976 encyclopedia that had details of a manned mission to Mars with nice diagrams of the flight plan, etc. 32 years later and still no man (or woman) has set foot on the Red Planet.

[DC_Street]

my sub-division was wired with fiber optics a few years ago and the best dsl speed we can get is the stupid 1.5mbps, so we switched to cable at 5mbps which still isn't that great. Americans and their greed

[drago3451]

For populations > 50,000 That is missing a huge segment of consumers. Not to mention the above post of the cable/internet providers trunking their service and charging for large downloads. Not going to happen! physical media is going to be here for a long time.

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by TyrantSilkey

When I was living in Japan in 06/07 I could get 25mbps DSL for $35/month, 50mbps DSL for $42/month, 150mbps fiber optic internet for $50/month, or 1gbps fiber optic internet/cable/phone for $60 a month. And the connections weren't throttled at all. My download speeds were only limited by the write speed of my hard drive. Keep in mind that BD peaks at about 50mbps so for $60 a month I had a connection with 20 times the bandwidth of a BD player.

Granted the exchange rates have changed some since then so the prices aren't the same anymore, but they're still relatively close.

Why is this relevant to America? Well if you do a little research you'll find out that America has thousands of miles of dark fiber sitting around waiting to be lit up. (just type "dark fiber" into google and start searching) When our telecommunications giants put in our internet backbones they planned it to support demand out until 2020 or later and they did so before a little technology called wave division multiplexing came out. Wave division multiplexing takes the light spectrum and dices it into smaller pieces each of which sends data independently, and I believe the newest versions are capable of multiplying the speed of fiber optics by 200. (give it a look on wikipedia, keep in mind that writeup is likely pretty old) As a result, we're using less of our internet backbones now than we were in the late 90s/early 2000's. And the telecom companies are now leasing the unused strands of fiber to banks and other companies that want their own dedicated backbones for additional revenue. (and still leaving the vast majority of the fiber turned off) The sad truth of the matter is almost anyone in a city of 50,000 or more could have 50mbps internet capable of streaming BD quality video and audio in less than a year, the technology is already there, the infrastructure is already there and in most cases installed and ready to go with the flip of a switch, but in the end our bandwidth and download caps are all in place in this country due to corporations trying to milk us for all they can before they give us a tiny upgrade to the next step. Although if Microsoft and a few others are successful in their lobbying efforts that could change fairly fast with a little legislation.

Very very informative Tyrant . You can sign me up when I am able to download that BD quality and burn it on a BD disc. Yes I would still want physical media as I do now. Then again, why go through all that trouble when I could just buy the BD disc which should be cheaper by then

[crazyBLUE]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

Very very informative Tyrant . You can sign me up when I am able to download that BD quality and burn it on a BD disc. Yes I would still want physical media as I do now. Then again, why go through all that trouble when I could just buy the BD disc which should be cheaper by then

AGEE WITH THAT ONE !I'M just going to keep buying the BD !!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by TyrantSilkey

When I was living in Japan in 06/07 I could get 25mbps DSL for $35/month, 50mbps DSL for $42/month, 150mbps fiber optic internet for $50/month, or 1gbps fiber optic internet/cable/phone for $60 a month. And the connections weren't throttled at all. My download speeds were only limited by the write speed of my hard drive. Keep in mind that BD peaks at about 50mbps so for $60 a month I had a connection with 20 times the bandwidth of a BD player.

There's a lot more to the issue than the ubiquity of downstream bandwidth. Downloads aren't dominant in Japan, right?

Who cares how slow your connection is if it is 99.5% pre-downloaded and fixed up (last little bit making it usuable) and unlocked at 12 midnight on release day?

A P2P distribution model would have to be used. Guarantee that won't be polluted by morons.

Also, it's likely that purchase will disappear (as in true ownership) and be replaced with a license model:

How much per movie is your storage cost?
Can you resell it?
What happens if the HDD fails?
What happens if you upgrade your equipment?
Can you take it to a friend's house to watch?
Can you lend it to a friend?

All these questions have fairly clear answers with physical discs.

Gary

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by TyrantSilkey

Keep in mind that BD peaks at about 50mbps so for $60 a month I had a connection with 20 times the bandwidth of a BD player.

There's another major problem in that no content provider anywhere is delivering movies via the Internet with Blu-ray levels of quality. It's merely comparable to what you might see on digital satellite.

American telecommunications companies will probably have to be forced by the U.S. government to do anything to deliver high Internet speeds within the next 10 years. And that's only assuming the government would bother to tell them what to do at all. The U.S. will only see its Internet infrastructure start to improve by significant leaps only after the current relatively slow speeds place American businesses as a serious competitive disadvantage. American telcos aren't going to improve their Internet infrastructure just to help Hollywood stream movies in HD.