Do we know / Can we guess the future Blu-ray media?

[misthalu]

I'm using Blu-ray for my personal video albums, planning on handing all of it to my daughter some day when she's old enough, so she can be nostalgic watching clips from her childhood and such.

I like the optical discs, because I can't think of any other media with better durability and suitable as a playable backup. And because it's a "dead" platform (i.e. it doesn't change), then I know it'll still be playable 50 years from now - one way or another.

People keep telling me the disc is dying though. While I don't really believe that, it has made me curious anyway. I wonder what kind of media might replace it, if so.
I did notice, when the UHD Blu-ray players came along, that the word "disc" was actually omitted in the name. It was no longer called a "Blu-ray Disc Player", but simply a "Blu-ray Player". So maybe some other media is being planned on?

The first idea is of course some kind of flash memory, maybe formatted as UDF2.5. But it'll need to be cheap if it is to replace the optical discs...

For now, I'm planning on giving my daughter all these albums in 2 ways: As a bunch of discs, neatly packaged with labels. But also on some kind of hardware media player, like Dune HD Smart D1 (but of course some newer model at that time): All ISO files playable from harddisk.

The reason it has to be Blu-ray is because I'm also using Java to add descriptions for the videos, with options to change font size and such.

Right now there are many devices that offers ISO playback (or Blu-ray folder structure) from USB or harddisk. Including software media players such as VLC and Kodi (though they still have a long way to go to be 100% compatible).
The hardware devices offered this via SoC (System on Chip). But then new requirements came along (as far as I understand), that put a stop to companies adding BD-J support on these chips. (as far as I know, it was Cinavia that required more license money).

Some Android devices supposedly plays Blu-ray's with BD-J support now. Does that mean maybe we can hope for future Android Smart-TV's with Blu-ray playback support?

Who has qualified guesses about the future?

[oilers73]

Nobody knows anything. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[Rzzzz]

Brain implants are the future. Your head will be the playing device.....

[Vilya]

Another unnecessary redundant thread about the future of home video.

If anyone here could predict the future of any market for anything, they should be wildly wealthy and too busy enjoying said wealth to answer the questions of those of us without such extraordinary gifts. In any event, those so talented would not reveal the future for free.

With that said, I accept paypal. Inquire for details and prices.

[alchav21]

Don't listen to Vilya, he's banking on Discs lasting a lifetime. They will be around for a long time, but most feel 4K Discs are the last. 8K TV's are out with no real 8K Content. I think the next step is Solid State Drives, I just upgraded my computer to SSD and it's fast. I keep saying everything is Digital now, and put on Servers. So what comes next, Media put on SSD's!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Don't listen to Vilya, he's banking on Discs lasting a lifetime. They will be around for a long time, but most feel 4K Discs are the last. 8K TV's are out with no real 8K Content. I think the next step is Solid State Drives, I just upgraded my computer to SSD and it's fast. I keep saying everything is Digital now, and put on Servers. So what comes next, Medea put on SSD's!

Stop trying to horn in on my action!

I know all! See all! and tell all...for the appropriate fee, naturally.

And why would you want Madea on an SSD? Or anywhere else for that matter?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Don't listen to Vilya, he's banking on Discs lasting a lifetime. They will be around for a long time, but most feel 4K Discs are the last. 8K TV's are out with no real 8K Content. I think the next step is Solid State Drives, I just upgraded my computer to SSD and it's fast. I keep saying everything is Digital now, and put on Servers. So what comes next, Media put on SSD's!

I’m just going to bookmark that line about 8K tv.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I’m just going to bookmark that line about 8K tv.

He's not wrong about 8K TVs being out. Best Buy offers 4 models now, all are Samsungs, starting at $4,999 and they offer an 85" model for $14,999. Bargains all!

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/samsung...?skuId=6323711

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/samsung...?skuId=6295150

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

He's not wrong about 8K TVs being out.

But he doesn't have a clue as to the cost of media and replication. Stamped disc will be around for awhile because of their data capacity and cheap cost to replicate.

As to the last format, even biggies like Bill Gates got it wrong, Blu-ray was not the last physical format.

Just in case anyone doesn't know, Gates predicted at one of the CES shows that Blu-ray would be the last physical format. The irony is: MSFT no longer attends CES (CTA), WMC is now gone from Windows and MSFT did not achieve domination of the living room like they once thought they would.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

But he doesn't have a clue as to the cost of media and replication. Stamped disc will be around for awhile because of their data capacity and cheap cost to replicate.

As to the last format, even biggies like Bill Gates got it wrong, Blu-ray was not the last physical format.

Just in case anyone doesn't know, Gates predicted at one of the CES shows that Blu-ray would be the last physical format. The irony is: MSFT no longer attends CES (CTA), WMC is now gone from Windows and MSFT did not achieve domination of the living room like they once thought they would.

Yes, I am well aware of the many, many things that he gets wrong...perpetually, but it was quite a novelty getting to say he was right about something for a change.

[stonesfan129]

Everything will go to streaming and online/cloud storage. If you are storing things long term I would almost migrate entirely to hard drives.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by stonesfan129

Everything will go to streaming and online/cloud storage. If you are storing things long term I would almost migrate entirely to hard drives.

Followed by World War III, the zombie apocalypse, and then an asteroid strike.

By all means, store all of your important files on cloud storage, a hard drive that you do not even own, vulnerable to hacking, and have to pay a recurring fee to access.

Your prediction carries no more weight than mine does and neither of us even have the confidence in them to say when they will occur. Tell us something we haven't heard a 1,000 times before already; tell us when.

I'll tell you when my predictions of WW3, zombies, and that asteroid strike will occur. I'm no hypocrite and I want to set the example. Brace yourself for the coming paragraph!

These events won't happen "overnight", but they are coming "soon." The onslaught won't be sudden; the onset will be "gradual," building up logrithmically, not exponentially, but nonetheless inexorably. The only prudent thing to do is to leave all of your valuables with me for safe keeping- no cloud storage here; you can rest easy. Only someone with vision such as mine can help you through the tumultuous times ahead and to circumnavigate the calamitous consequences of these certain compounded catastrophes.

Get back to us when physical media for music is entirely gone and when digital books replace all print publications. Those of you who keep predicting the end of things have not been right even once despite years of making such predictions, but you are persistent. Persistent like in the definition of insanity, that is.

[stonesfan129]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Followed by World War III, the zombie apocalypse, and then an asteroid strike.

By all means, store all of your important files on cloud storage, a hard drive that you do not even own, vulnerable to hacking, and have to pay a recurring fee to access.

Your prediction carries no more weight than mine does and neither of us even have the confidence in them to say when they will occur. Tell us something we haven't heard a 1,000 times before already; tell us when.

I'll tell you when my predictions of WW3, zombies, and that asteroid strike will occur. I'm no hypocrite and I want to set the example. Brace yourself for the coming paragraph!

These events won't happen "overnight", but they are coming "soon." The onslaught won't be sudden; the onset will be "gradual," building up logrithmically, not exponentially, but nonetheless inexorably. The only prudent thing to do is to leave all of your valuables with me for safe keeping- no cloud storage here; you can rest easy. Only someone with vision such as mine can help you through the tumultuous times ahead and to circumnavigate the calamitous consequences of these certain compounded catastrophes.

Get back to us when physical media for music is entirely gone and when digital books replace all print publications. Those of you who keep predicting the end of things have not been right even once despite years of making such predictions, but you are persistent. Persistent like in the definition of insanity, that is.

Sounds like you take this way too seriously.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by stonesfan129

Sounds like you take this way too seriously.

Definitely.

My post could not have been more seriously serious; I mean we're talking about WW3, zombies, and asteroid strikes here!

And my storing of all your valuables, the most serious part of it all!

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

But he doesn't have a clue as to the cost of media and replication. Stamped disc will be around for awhile because of their data capacity and cheap cost to replicate.

As to the last format, even biggies like Bill Gates got it wrong, Blu-ray was not the last physical format.

It sounds like you do, stamped out seems like all the cost is in materials, but there is a lot more. Studios will take everything into account when deciding in distribution. Since it's Digital it's already on Servers no material needed, so it would be the cheapest way to go. I know it's more complicated than that, and so should you.

As for your SSD, that's what I used a Samsung 1TB with Windows 10 Pro. If it worked with a Seagate Disc HDD it should work with a SSD. On a New Build you get a good POST, then load Windows Clean.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

It sounds like you do, stamped out seems like all the cost is in materials, but there is a lot more. Studios will take everything into account when deciding in distribution. Since it's Digital it's already on Servers no material needed, so it would be the cheapest way to go. I know it's more complicated than that, and so should you.

As for your SSD, that's what I used a Samsung 1TB with Windows 10 Pro. If it worked with a Seagate Disc HDD it should work with a SSD. On a New Build you get a good POST, then load Windows Clean.

Servers are made out of clouds thus the term "cloud storage" and clouds are naturally occurring, so thus no need of materials.

Servers require lots of power to run, but thankfully they have access to all of that lightning that clouds are in such close proximity with.

So, servers require no materials as they are made from naturally forming clouds and their power needs are met by naturally occurring lightning. It is such a balanced system!

Servers have a lifespan on average of only 3-5 years. The power to operate just one "average" commercial server cost $732 per month in 2015.

"By 2020, it is estimated consumption will increase to 140 billion kilowatt-hours, costing about $13 billion in power bills."

And that's just in the U.S. and that is only the cost to power data centers. It does not even include the cost of the servers themselves, their maintenance, labor costs, and their continual need for outright replacement. Servers are short lived.

http://www.ha-inc.com/blog/entry/dat...y-consumption/

Netflix used 100TB capacity servers in 2014 and had 4,669 of them back in 2016. It costs a veritable fortune to acquire, power, maintain, and operate large server farms. If you really knew anything at all about the subject, and you clearly do not, you would never suggest that operating a massive server farm was anything but hugely expensive.

Wendell does not need your help in building a computer. He has forgotten more about computers than you'll ever know or could hope to know. He already told you that the problem is a compatibility issue between his specific motherboard and Samsung SSD drives. It is a well known issue with his particular mobo and it has nothing to do with his choice of operating system. Had you taken even a moment to research his specific mobo you would have known how useless your advice was the first time that you gave it.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

So, servers require no materials as they are made from naturally forming clouds and their power needs are met by naturally occurring lightning. It is such a balanced system!

Careful, you will be quoted as saying cloud storage is free. Years ago I pointed out to folks that the cost of streaming Netflix was a lot more than $7.99 a month because they had to pay for a way to access that service. The response was they were paying X dollars a month anyway for ISP. For me, I estimate about half my ISP time is used for streaming video, so: Netflix $16, Amazon Prime ≈ $4.00, ½ of $80.00 for ISP = $60.00 per month for video streaming.

[ack_bak]

Lol@8k. It's mostly marketing BS. I sit a little over 9' from a 129" screen and would get little to no benefit from 8K unleees I moved closer. Your eyes simply cannot resolve that much detail at normal seating distances. Most 4K TV owners are not really benefiting from 4K resolution. Now factor in that most people buy 65" and less TV's and 8K will be useless there are additional benefits besides resolution.

In terms of Blu-Ray and packaged media? My guess is another 15-20 years in some form or another or as long as the studios make money off collectors. Look at vinyl records. Internet bandwidth outside of most major cities is robust enough to support high bitrate audio and video and digital is not suitable for most traditional packaged media collectors.

[Vilya]

I will reserve judgment on 8K until more manufacturers support it and until the standards that they settle upon are known. It is too soon to pass judgment on it.

8K technology has the ability to support autostereoscopic 3D, or 3D without any need for special glasses, and it can be compatible with existing 3D blu-rays. There are some prototype 8K TVs that do this now up to 65" in size. As a fan of 3D myself, this interests me greatly, but there is no guarantee that TV manufacturers would include 3D capability on 8K TVs.

As for size, larger screens are getting more affordable. 75" displays are within the reach of many now. Oh, and I enjoy my 4K 3D Dolby Vision HDR10 TV everyday. It is not only about resolution, but HDR and Wide Color Gamut. Altogether, when done right, the improvements are obvious. We have many gorgeous 4K TVs on the market.

I will applaud, or laugh at, 8K displays when we know more about them AND after I have seen them for myself.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I will reserve judgment on 8K until more manufacturers support it and until the standards that they settle upon are known. It is too soon to pass judgment on it.

8K technology has the ability to support autostereoscopic 3D, or 3D without any need for special glasses, and it can be compatible with existing 3D blu-rays. There are some prototype 8K TVs that do this now up to 65" in size. As a fan of 3D myself, this interests me greatly, but there is no guarantee that TV manufacturers would include 3D capability on 8K TVs.

As for size, larger screens are getting more affordable. 75" displays are within the reach of many now. Oh, and I enjoy my 4K 3D Dolby Vision HDR10 TV everyday. It is not only about resolution, but HDR and Wide Color Gamut. Altogether, when done right, the improvements are obvious. We have many gorgeous 4K TVs on the market.

I will applaud, or laugh at, 8K displays when we know more about them AND after I have seen them for myself.

Right that's my point. Unless there are other benefits to 8K aside from resolution then it just not going to be a very meaningful upgrade. The biggest benefit for most people for 4K was wide color gamut and HDR. But when someone buys a 65" 4K screen and is sitting more than 4-6' away they are not getting resolution benefit. With 8K? You would need to sit like 2-3' from a 65-75" screen. Most people just do t do that. Like I said I won't really benefit from 8K using a 129" screen unlesss I move my seating several feet closer which I just can't do.