Is Blu-ray's time FINALLY here? - Blu-ray Forum

skygreenleopard · 03-26-2009, 04:30 AM

I'm not posing a "will it be successful" question, even though there are still many skeptics (like that moron from Yahoo). I know the tech is growing, getting cheaper, and picking up speed, as do you all. But do you think we're at (or close to) the tipping point where Blu-Ray will be the mainstream choice within the next year or two?

I ask because as of now (March '09) I've never bought a Blu-Ray for more than $20. Usually Amazon for $17. I don't buy tons of movies, but there's also no need to rush out to brick-and-mortar stores and spend $27 on turds like Wild Hogs when I can own 3:10 to Yuma or Batman Begins from online stores for about $17. That's less than new DVDs cost a 2-3 years ago - I feel like $20 was about standard for a brand new DVD on average.

Players are cheaper now, too. I saw a Samsung P1500 for $105 the other day. While most people on the forums won't buy this model, the average family will - they're also the kind like my dad who will buy a $25-$40 DVD player just to watch movies for a couple of days while vacationing somewhere without a player. In other words, I think the tech is FINALLY beyond the average movie watcher's reach.

What might slow the growth of Blu-Ray to full momentum is the TV factor (most people don't have HDTVs) and the numbers game (the fact that stores and rental places only have small aisles of BDs right now). However, with Vizios and Westinghouses everywhere, I really believe 2009 might be the tipping point for Blu-Ray as mainstream, or dominant, AV technology.

What do you guys think?

tron3 · 03-26-2009, 01:28 PM

Ok, I'll bite.

This severe economic recession (or Mild Depression, in my opinion) is slowing the adoption rate. On the other hand, it also is resulting in lower prices. In effect "meeting the consumer half way." Those still secure in having a job will more cautiously adopt. It's a buyers market out there, for nearly everything.

If studio cost cutting continues it may result in crappier quality transfers onto BD25 because BD50 is more expensive. I know it depends on the codec used. Bit rates are not everything - I KNOW. Let's not get off topic.

We are already seeing cheaply made blu-ray cases. What is next, a blu-paper case? I think most of us will draw the line in the sand at that point.

A large percentage of homes are still without an HDTV, thus slowing the adoption even further. If you can't afford the HDTV, you can't afford the player.

The following and momentum is strong enough to keep blu-ray in business. It is just going to be a steep marketing curve.

bhampton · 03-26-2009, 01:55 PM

I thought the time for Blu Ray was 3 years ago. That's when I bought it.

I think it will grow bigger every day. It's everything DVD should have been.

-Brian

tvine2000 · 03-26-2009, 02:25 PM

the players are cheap and getting cheaper.the companys making these players
have done there part.
its the studio's who won't bend.my local walmart won't stock any of the old bond movies anymore on blu-ray,because they didn't sell.
btw you can get better deals at bestbuy,i mean walmarts not even trying to compete with bb anymore.
i also think the studio's have to start making better movies!
warners has lowered there old bd titles as well as paramount,but there titles from 2006 and most of them suck,or the pq on them suck.
i think their in a pickle because blu-ray is suppose to be 6 times better then dvd in the pq&Aq dept.in their eyes it has to cost more.
but theses are tough times,blu-ray won the war,but its still a uphill battle to overcome dvd,see what i mean.blu-ray will hang in there as long as we the people can hang in there!that goes for everything cars,homes downloading etc.i'm not trying to paint a doom&gloom picture here,but its real and hopefully things are going to get better.if people can spend money like they used too blu-ray will get where they should be now.the ? is how far will the studio's and ce's bend before they break!

Blu Titan · 03-26-2009, 02:56 PM

Actually, I saw a couple of open box (looked brand new) Insignia BD players at Best Buy for $80. Don't need another BD palyer at the moment, but almost bought it cause they were so cheap.

Bobby Henderson · 03-26-2009, 03:35 PM

The naysayers and FUD-spreaders rooting against Blu-ray conveniently (or deliberately) forget the history of the DVD format and just how long it took for DVD to become a "mainstream" item. Those same knuckleheads also expect Blu-ray to immediately match the market reach of DVD immediately or the BD format will be deemed a failure. Of course that stance is laughably retarded.

The Blu-ray format is doing just fine. The fact is Blu-ray is being adopted at a faster pace than than DVD at the same point in its life span (the 30-36 month period after format introduction).

HDTVs are not a niche market item anymore. It's funny how there is so much negative spin on just how few people have HDTV sets. More than 1/3 of American homes have at least 1 HDTV set now and those numbers are growing fast. HDTVs are ubiquitous in electronics stores. SD sets are dead. At least a few hundred local TV stations in the US are broadcasting digital-only now. This situation ultimately helps Blu-ray.

Bad economy? Blah. DVD surged to greatness despite the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the end of the 1990s, the recession that followed and the economic upheaval we saw after the 9-11 terrorist attacks. The movie industry tends to do well during economic downturns. People need to be entertained to get their minds off the gloom of doom of reality smacking them in the face all the time. Movie theater attendance is up sharply from last year. DVD has seen its fortunes hit the skids as of late, but I think a lot of that has to do with a growing number of people not wanting to keep buying movies in an older, SD-quality format. They know Blu-ray is available and are just waiting for the right time to buy into the format.

I believe Blu-ray has one heck of a trump card: complete backward compatibility with DVD. You can even attach a Blu-ray player or Playstation 3 to an old standard definition television. With player prices dropping steadily it won't take but another year or two before DVD-only movie disc players become a very rare item on store shelves.

BD movie prices are easing again. New releases can be had for under $25 if you're willing to shop around. There's lots of catalog titles available for under $15.

freddylinni · 03-26-2009, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

The naysayers and FUD-spreaders rooting against Blu-ray conveniently (or deliberately) forget the history of the DVD format and just how long it took for DVD to become a "mainstream" item. Those same knuckleheads also expect Blu-ray to immediately match the market reach of DVD immediately or the BD format will be deemed a failure. Of course that stance is laughably retarded.

Totally agree. People that are saying that BD is not a sucsess because it dont match their unrealistic expections are just fools. BD has lot more players than DVD at the same time and if prices on movies drops and amount of BD releases increases many belive that it also can match DVD movies market share on same time.

This chart show how long time DVD used to take the market. (it also show BD, but its early)

slee915 · 03-26-2009, 08:09 PM

How is "market share" defined in the chart ? DVD vs. what ? BD vs. what ?

freddylinni · 03-26-2009, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slee915

How is "market share" defined in the chart ? DVD vs. what ? BD vs. what ?

DVD vs VHS and BD (the latest years)

BD vs DVD

BluLobsta · 03-26-2009, 08:20 PM

It's here for me...and I'm not much of a trend-setter. I probably represent the majority of the population, not the minority.

Ernest Rister · 03-26-2009, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BluLobsta

It's here for me...and I'm not much of a trend-setter. I probably represent the majority of the population, not the minority.

So, in less than 11 weeks, Blu-Ray has already outsold all of 2008? And there are people who claim Blu-Ray is a flop and isn't "catching on" or some such?

Can't wait to see what that chart looks like January 2010. And I only wish I could see the faces of those who've been trashing Blu-Ray when they haul their first player to the checkout register in 2011

Batman1980 · 03-26-2009, 08:28 PM

If that's true blu-ray may actually take over by 2011, sure would be nice to see. So sick of waiting for catalog releases to hit blu-ray but at least it helps me keep up(such as it is).

slee915 · 03-26-2009, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddylinni

DVD vs VHS and BD (the latest years)

BD vs DVD

I'm surprised laserdisc was not counted. I don't think it was an insignificant format in the late 90's.

freddylinni · 03-26-2009, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slee915

I'm surprised laserdisc was not counted. I don't think it was an insignificant format in the late 90's.

For me VHS was dead before it arrived. LD was my drug in the 90's
(and for people like mye the difference to DVD was not that great)

But not many did own laserdisc.

Batman1980 · 03-26-2009, 08:40 PM

I bought maybe 10 movies on VHS, have about 300 movies on DVD and that number is going down all the time.

kris26 · 03-26-2009, 08:56 PM

i winder whats the difference between LD's and BD's when compared to av quality
i know laser is comptable with ac3 audio format

freddylinni · 03-26-2009, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

So, in less than 11 weeks, Blu-Ray has already outsold all of 2008? And there are people who claim Blu-Ray is a flop and isn't "catching on" or some such?

Its market share so already january 1 it was better. (since market is growing)
(in theory it can be lower at the end of year (IT WONT BE!))

fighthefutureofhd · 03-29-2009, 03:00 AM

the problem is most people don't own an hdtv television. it's a common misconception that a very sizable portion own an hdtv. it's not the case. if it were there would be no problems with the switchover to digital television. it's going to be another 3 or 4 years at the very least before blu-ray takes over.

MAPdead · 03-29-2009, 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvine2000

the players are cheap and getting cheaper.the companys making these players
have done there part.
its the studio's who won't bend.my local walmart won't stock any of the old bond movies anymore on blu-ray,because they didn't sell.
btw you can get better deals at bestbuy,i mean walmarts not even trying to compete with bb anymore.
i also think the studio's have to start making better movies!
warners has lowered there old bd titles as well as paramount,but there titles from 2006 and most of them suck,or the pq on them suck.
i think their in a pickle because blu-ray is suppose to be 6 times better then dvd in the pq&Aq dept.in their eyes it has to cost more.
but theses are tough times,blu-ray won the war,but its still a uphill battle to overcome dvd,see what i mean.blu-ray will hang in there as long as we the people can hang in there!that goes for everything cars,homes downloading etc.i'm not trying to paint a doom&gloom picture here,but its real and hopefully things are going to get better.if people can spend money like they used too blu-ray will get where they should be now.the ? is how far will the studio's and ce's bend before they break!

I agree newer movies cost mostly $ 29.99 when they are not on sell and most older movies around $25-20 bucks when they are not on sell its the studios who need to make Blu Rays cheaper if they want to over take DVD for good.

koontz1973 · 03-29-2009, 03:42 AM

Even with the recession going on, people NEED TV. When an old one breaks, they will replace it with a HDTV, same with players. BD will stay until a new format arrives. As for crappy transfers, wait a few years and get the directors cut of the film. DVD was very poor in the beginning for extras and quality. BD will be the same. We will be seeing films re-released on BD, with better PQ/AQ and extras. Let the studios get some of there crap out of the way, and they can then sort it out later.

03-26-2009, 04:30 AM	#1
skygreenleopard Active Member Member since:Dec 2008 Blu-ray collection:15 Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:3	Is Blu-ray's time FINALLY here? I'm not posing a "will it be successful" question, even though there are still many skeptics (like that moron from Yahoo). I know the tech is growing, getting cheaper, and picking up speed, as do you all. But do you think we're at (or close to) the tipping point where Blu-Ray will be the mainstream choice within the next year or two? I ask because as of now (March '09) I've never bought a Blu-Ray for more than $20. Usually Amazon for $17. I don't buy tons of movies, but there's also no need to rush out to brick-and-mortar stores and spend $27 on turds like Wild Hogs when I can own 3:10 to Yuma or Batman Begins from online stores for about $17. That's less than new DVDs cost a 2-3 years ago - I feel like $20 was about standard for a brand new DVD on average. Players are cheaper now, too. I saw a Samsung P1500 for $105 the other day. While most people on the forums won't buy this model, the average family will - they're also the kind like my dad who will buy a $25-$40 DVD player just to watch movies for a couple of days while vacationing somewhere without a player. In other words, I think the tech is FINALLY beyond the average movie watcher's reach. What might slow the growth of Blu-Ray to full momentum is the TV factor (most people don't have HDTVs) and the numbers game (the fact that stores and rental places only have small aisles of BDs right now). However, with Vizios and Westinghouses everywhere, I really believe 2009 might be the tipping point for Blu-Ray as mainstream, or dominant, AV technology. What do you guys think?

03-26-2009, 01:28 PM	#2
tron3 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Aug 2004 Location:New Jersey Blu-ray reviews:3	Ok, I'll bite. This severe economic recession (or Mild Depression, in my opinion) is slowing the adoption rate. On the other hand, it also is resulting in lower prices. In effect "meeting the consumer half way." Those still secure in having a job will more cautiously adopt. It's a buyers market out there, for nearly everything. If studio cost cutting continues it may result in crappier quality transfers onto BD25 because BD50 is more expensive. I know it depends on the codec used. Bit rates are not everything - I KNOW. Let's not get off topic. We are already seeing cheaply made blu-ray cases. What is next, a blu-paper case? I think most of us will draw the line in the sand at that point. A large percentage of homes are still without an HDTV, thus slowing the adoption even further. If you can't afford the HDTV, you can't afford the player. The following and momentum is strong enough to keep blu-ray in business. It is just going to be a steep marketing curve. Last edited by tron3; 03-26-2009 at 05:52 PM.

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03-26-2009, 01:55 PM	#3
bhampton Blu-ray Count Member since:Aug 2007 4K collection:988 Blu-ray collection:2544 DVD collection:67 Blu-ray reviews: 6 Trading Score:18	I thought the time for Blu Ray was 3 years ago. That's when I bought it. I think it will grow bigger every day. It's everything DVD should have been. -Brian

03-26-2009, 02:25 PM	#4
tvine2000 Special Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Connecticut 4K collection:164 Blu-ray collection:267 Blu-ray reviews:50	the players are cheap and getting cheaper.the companys making these players have done there part. its the studio's who won't bend.my local walmart won't stock any of the old bond movies anymore on blu-ray,because they didn't sell. btw you can get better deals at bestbuy,i mean walmarts not even trying to compete with bb anymore. i also think the studio's have to start making better movies! warners has lowered there old bd titles as well as paramount,but there titles from 2006 and most of them suck,or the pq on them suck. i think their in a pickle because blu-ray is suppose to be 6 times better then dvd in the pq&Aq dept.in their eyes it has to cost more. but theses are tough times,blu-ray won the war,but its still a uphill battle to overcome dvd,see what i mean.blu-ray will hang in there as long as we the people can hang in there!that goes for everything cars,homes downloading etc.i'm not trying to paint a doom&gloom picture here,but its real and hopefully things are going to get better.if people can spend money like they used too blu-ray will get where they should be now.the ? is how far will the studio's and ce's bend before they break!

03-26-2009, 02:56 PM	#5
Blu Titan Super Moderator Top ranked HT gallery Top contributor Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Edo, Land of the Samurai Home Theater Gallery:42 4K collection:41 Blu-ray collection:2864 Blu-ray reviews: 2 Trading Score:92	Actually, I saw a couple of open box (looked brand new) Insignia BD players at Best Buy for $80. Don't need another BD palyer at the moment, but almost bought it cause they were so cheap.

03-26-2009, 03:35 PM	#6
Bobby Henderson Power Member Member since:Jan 2008 Location:Oklahoma Blu-ray collection:96 Blu-ray reviews: 12	The naysayers and FUD-spreaders rooting against Blu-ray conveniently (or deliberately) forget the history of the DVD format and just how long it took for DVD to become a "mainstream" item. Those same knuckleheads also expect Blu-ray to immediately match the market reach of DVD immediately or the BD format will be deemed a failure. Of course that stance is laughably retarded. The Blu-ray format is doing just fine. The fact is Blu-ray is being adopted at a faster pace than than DVD at the same point in its life span (the 30-36 month period after format introduction). HDTVs are not a niche market item anymore. It's funny how there is so much negative spin on just how few people have HDTV sets. More than 1/3 of American homes have at least 1 HDTV set now and those numbers are growing fast. HDTVs are ubiquitous in electronics stores. SD sets are dead. At least a few hundred local TV stations in the US are broadcasting digital-only now. This situation ultimately helps Blu-ray. Bad economy? Blah. DVD surged to greatness despite the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the end of the 1990s, the recession that followed and the economic upheaval we saw after the 9-11 terrorist attacks. The movie industry tends to do well during economic downturns. People need to be entertained to get their minds off the gloom of doom of reality smacking them in the face all the time. Movie theater attendance is up sharply from last year. DVD has seen its fortunes hit the skids as of late, but I think a lot of that has to do with a growing number of people not wanting to keep buying movies in an older, SD-quality format. They know Blu-ray is available and are just waiting for the right time to buy into the format. I believe Blu-ray has one heck of a trump card: complete backward compatibility with DVD. You can even attach a Blu-ray player or Playstation 3 to an old standard definition television. With player prices dropping steadily it won't take but another year or two before DVD-only movie disc players become a very rare item on store shelves. BD movie prices are easing again. New releases can be had for under $25 if you're willing to shop around. There's lots of catalog titles available for under $15.

03-26-2009, 08:09 PM	#8
slee915 Senior Member Member since:May 2007 4K collection:20 Blu-ray collection:985 Blu-ray reviews:10	How is "market share" defined in the chart ? DVD vs. what ? BD vs. what ?

03-26-2009, 08:20 PM	#10
BluLobsta Blu-ray Guru Member since:Dec 2008 Location:Rhode Island Home Theater Gallery:86 4K collection:81 Blu-ray collection:420 DVD collection:1 Blu-ray reviews:2	It's here for me...and I'm not much of a trend-setter. I probably represent the majority of the population, not the minority.

03-26-2009, 08:28 PM	#12
Batman1980 Blu-ray Jedi Member since:Feb 2009 Location:District 13 Home Theater Gallery:8 4K collection:146 Blu-ray collection:394 DVD collection:57 Blu-ray reviews:22 Trading Score:48	If that's true blu-ray may actually take over by 2011, sure would be nice to see. So sick of waiting for catalog releases to hit blu-ray but at least it helps me keep up(such as it is).

03-26-2009, 08:40 PM	#15
Batman1980 Blu-ray Jedi Member since:Feb 2009 Location:District 13 Home Theater Gallery:8 4K collection:146 Blu-ray collection:394 DVD collection:57 Blu-ray reviews:22 Trading Score:48	I bought maybe 10 movies on VHS, have about 300 movies on DVD and that number is going down all the time.

03-26-2009, 08:56 PM	#16
kris26 Senior Member Member since:Mar 2009 Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:6	i winder whats the difference between LD's and BD's when compared to av quality i know laser is comptable with ac3 audio format

03-29-2009, 03:00 AM	#18
fighthefutureofhd Blu-ray Baron Member since:Jun 2008 Location:Dry County	the problem is most people don't own an hdtv television. it's a common misconception that a very sizable portion own an hdtv. it's not the case. if it were there would be no problems with the switchover to digital television. it's going to be another 3 or 4 years at the very least before blu-ray takes over.

03-29-2009, 03:42 AM	#20
koontz1973 Blu-ray Guru Member since:Mar 2009 Location:Insane Alylum for the over achievers. Blu-ray collection:133	Even with the recession going on, people NEED TV. When an old one breaks, they will replace it with a HDTV, same with players. BD will stay until a new format arrives. As for crappy transfers, wait a few years and get the directors cut of the film. DVD was very poor in the beginning for extras and quality. BD will be the same. We will be seeing films re-released on BD, with better PQ/AQ and extras. Let the studios get some of there crap out of the way, and they can then sort it out later.

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