Bill Hunt's Two Cents posts about Paramount, Warner, etc.

[Terjyn]

Even if Warner goes HD-DVD, it still doesn't matter, Blu-Ray will outsell HD by a large margin.

HD-DVD is in a bad bind. They can not sell tons of HD-DVD players until HD-DVD wins the war. The PS3 outsells the HD-DVD adopters willing to go before the war is over. Therefore, Blu-Rays will outsell HD-DVDs and HD-DVD can not win the war.

While all the PS3 owners I know buy Blu-Rays, they do so out of convenience, not because they must have HD. As a result, studio support for HD-DVD does not matter to them. This includes me...I still happily buy DVDs when I have to.

About the only way I see that HD-DVD could win this war is if Universal, Warner, and Paramount pulled DVD support altogether, and went strictly HD-DVD.

Until that happens, they are boned, and no amount of studio buyout is going to make them sell more software, it's just going to make Blu-Ray sell less.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by JTK

This is the same kind of panic and chaos I've seen from some people even around here.

Yet again: Where's the heart? Where's the resolve?

This is an unacceptable answer to me. No, I don't want HD-DVD to win just so the war can be over with sooner.

That kind of hysterical statement is credibility damaging right there.




Yes, he does.

Maybe if the BDA responded with something of more substance than simply bringing forward the FOX announcement, people would have more confidence the BDA are being pro-active, rather than sitting back waiting to see just how deep Microsoft's pockets are?

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by JTK

HD-DVD will see some nice sales but it will not sink BD.

We all like to single out MS because it's fun, but some of the money also comes from Toshiba, Universal, and whomever is in their circle, so to speak.

Got to thinking about this again and I believe you're right about Warner not being able to single-handedly sink Blu. Harry Potter will sell like mad. So will T-Formers and Shrek cubed.

But, Blu still has the Pixar flix and POTC series and Sony has Spidey. Plus we have the 29 Fox flix coming between Oct. through the holidays. Those will also generate an enormous amount of sales of both software and hardware, by hi-def standards I should say. Still a drop in the bucket compared to DVD sales of the same movies though.

But, I still stand by M$ being the main financier of Paramounts buy-out. I don't believe the HD-DVD consortium/group has the kind of financial backing to buy out Warner without a majority of the money/services coming from Microsoft. Microsoft would not feel the financial hurt of buying out Warner nearly as much as these other companies would, which, if they had to put up money upwards of $300 million, would severely hurt their bottom line.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Maybe if the BDA responded with something of more substance than simply bringing forward the FOX announcement, people would have more confidence the BDA are being pro-active, rather than sitting back waiting to see just how deep Microsoft's pockets are?

The Fox news was good, but yes, we all need to see some hardcore follow through, preferably of the shock and awe variety...sooner rather than later for the reasons you just stated.

To that end, though, I think Fox's movie lineup is downright stellar and I'll be buying just about every one of their titles.

I'll miss some Paramount stuff, but it's not the end of the world.

Originally Posted by Slapper

Got to thinking about this again and I believe you're right about Warner not being able to single-handedly sink Blu. Harry Potter will sell like mad. So will T-Formers and Shrek cubed.

But, Blu still has the Pixar flix and POTC series and Sony has Spidey. Plus we have the 29 Fox flix coming between Oct. through the holidays. Those will also generate an enormous amount of sales of both software and hardware, by hi-def standards I should say. Still a drop in the bucket compared to DVD sales of the same movies though.

But, I still stand by M$ being the main financier of Paramounts buy-out. I don't believe the HD-DVD consortium/group has the kind of financial backing to buy out Warner without a majority of the money/services coming from Micorsoft. Microsoft would not feel the financial hurt of buying out Warner nearly as much as these other companies would, which, if they had to put up money upwards of $300 million, would severely hurt their bottom line.

^^ I certainly agree with that.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Slapper

If HD-DVD gets Warner then Blu-ray is going to sink this holiday season. Harry Potter will sell an s-load of standalone HD-DVD players.

That won't play Pirates 3, Spidey 3, The Simpsons Movie, Cars, Ratatouille, etc.

And the above titles will sell a ton of BD players.

And, in both cases, hopefully to people who know what the heck is going on.

Gary

[sodrock]

Blu-ray was legitimately winning the battle and now this obscene gesture by MS. I don't know what to think anymore. I just keep buying Blu-ray as usual.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

That won't play Pirates 3, Spidey 3, The Simpsons Movie, Cars, Ratatouille, etc.

And the above titles will sell a ton of BD players.

And, in both cases, hopefully to people who know what the heck is going on.

Gary

Yeah, I kind of rethought things. I was thinking about what Blu might lose instead of cheering about what we actually have coming on the horizon from our Tru Blu studios of Fox/MGM, Disney, Sony. The whole "glass is half empty thing". I'm OK now. Look at my previous post above.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

The only reason Warner sold 300,000+ copie of 300 is because bluray participate for 75% of that note (almost)

I don't believe that 75% of the blu-ray standalone players owners bought 300. After informing 3 of my friends that their PS3 upconverts DVDs and plays the best High Def format on the market, they kicked in buying BDs and scrapped their standalone players. I think the press doesn't know how to count the number of PS3s bought for or being used as BD players. Certainly Universal, Paramount, Toshiba, and Microsoft don't want to advertise even if they did know.

-CB

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

If the BDA stand by and let this happen they don't deserve our support.

Your call BDA, Microsoft are showing more guts for the fight, you only have yourselves to blame,

Microsoft didn't show more guts. They showed more money. For Microsoft to show guts would be to include a HD-DVD drive in the new 360 and issuing a recall on all of the 360s sold.

it even took Paramounts defection for FOX to announce their titles.

Fox was going to do an announcement anyway but Paramount forced the issue. Oh well.

I'll have a look on ebay for a cheap HD-DVD player to add to my PS3!

Go ahead and do that. You prolong the war which will lead to HD-DVD and BD's obsolescence.


fuad

[EricJ]

I seem to be the only one who's read down to the point where Bill buzzes:

By the way, we've heard back from both Warner and New Line this morning. Warner says their format neutral stance remains in place... at least for now ("We haven't announced anything otherwise," was the basic quote). And New Line said they still plan to support both high-def formats, and will contact us when they have news about titles and dates.

Which, although they still can't give anything definite till the press-statement, says EXACTLY what we've said all along in the other Warner-related "Attention-starved Beatboy makes it up" thread:
Namely, that Warner still thinks they can make more money off of recouping TotalHD costs than Micro can pay them back in the shortrun, that they can't afford to lose it now (especially now that the entire industry is wringing its hands and crying "The war's still on for another year! "), and that they want to play it chicken and sit back and see what Paramount's bad press loses them at this early stage...

...Yes , it's going to hurt our fingers to keep them crossed for one or two more days, but it's also possible that a refusal for Microsoft would also make some very beneficial big headlines in followup stories--
And cement in the public's mind that Paramount/Viacom Did the Wrong Thing in dealing with MS. That's what could win the war. LOTR and Matrix disks are only gravy.

[hyperdine]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Yeah, I kind of rethought things. I was thinking about what Blu might lose instead of cheering about what we actually have coming on the horizon from our Tru Blu studios of Fox/MGM, Disney, Sony. The whole "glass is half empty thing". I'm OK now. Look at my previous post above.

Exactly! Blu-Ray has some seriously must-have movies coming out before the end of the year. Almost every single Fox and Disney title are outstanding. Plus, everyone keeps forgetting about some of the new smaller studios. Don't forget that Anchor Bay is exclusively Blu-Ray at the moment. I think the original Halloween on Blu-Ray is going to sell very well. It's perfect timing.

[doctorD]

I think what Bill posted yesterday about people sending their opinions to WB is a good idea, especially if you are really concerned. As he stated be nice in your statements but give your opinions as a consumer.

My thought on this is that hopefully they stay neutral for the duration and that they start releasing the titles that are currently only on HD DVD to Blu ray. Until lately, they really hadn't been supporting Blu ray with their releases. Once they did look at what happened...100's of 1000's of Blu ray units being sold.

Even if it does happen, I don't believe it will, it will then be up to the HD DVD consumers to actually go out and buy movies. This is something that they have not been doing. With their superior number of standalone players out there, they couldn't even move 100K units of 300 in the first 2 weeks maybe even longer. They (HD DVD community) have a lot to prove at Christmas time with sales for Transformers and Shrek 3. They needed this shot in the arm because without it would have killed them by the end of the year if not sooner.

Now what we as supporters for Blu ray can't do is jump over to the other side and help them up their numbers. We have to stand our ground and show what format has the stronger support and loyalty. Show that we can't be bought by whomever has the suitcases of money. If you do then you show that you can be bought too. If it is something exclusive to HD DVD, buy it on standard DVD for the moment. Let those numbers greatly out number the HD DVD camps numbers.

I for one, am in this all the way as a Blu ray supporter.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Yeah, I kind of rethought things. I was thinking about what Blu might lose instead of cheering about what we actually have coming on the horizon from our Tru Blu studios of Fox/MGM, Disney, Sony. The whole "glass is half empty thing". I'm OK now. Look at my previous post above.

I think it is quite understandable. It was such a shock.

Beginning to release on a format is a sort of contract between the studio and consumer: "Trust us, we'll support you buying this format, with our software".

Paramount broke their promise to Blu-ray customers. Especially all those that chose to purchase a player specifically because of Paramount titles.

It's one thing refusing to support a format. It is quite another to widthdraw support. And it is pure evil to do so because of a bribe.

Paramount will lose a lot of credibility with ethical people. Hollywood could punish them in ways they simply don't fathom at this time.

Gary

[The Guardian]

I just wish we could get some good news... the Fox thing was good, but it was simply moved up, not really a reaction to the Paramount thing.

Still they've accelerated my plans to get a PS3 and start buying BDs, from Christmas to.. oh, next week or so.

[coolmilo]

I keep wondering why M$ is so involved in this war. M$'s main part is the VC-1 codec, isn't it?

But then I realized that M$ could bundle Xbox with HD DVD and Transformers and will sell a boatload of them this Xmas. It still sux that M$ is so slimy with its business practices.

If it is a 3/3 split in a few days that just means the risk to either of the formats has greatly increased. This will ensure that all the folks sitting on the sidelines will remain on the sidelines.

It also means that I will become a renter of blu-ray and dvd movies instead of a purchaser of movies (70 blu-ray movies and counting in 8 months). It also means that I will not be upgrading my audio system anytime soon to one of the new HDMI 1.3 audio systems. My system is good enough for DVD now. Then once a clear winner emerges or downloading becomes the norm I may invest into the technology.

For now I'll keep my preorders for the Spiderman trilogy and Pixar movies in place and wait with anticipation to see how this thing shakes out.

[WickyWoo]

I keep wondering why M$ is so involved in this war. M$'s main part is the VC-1 codec, isn't it?

MS wants to become the iTunes of HD video serving to home media servers and over cable, using VC-1 as the codec and iHD as the front end

To do that they need to seriously hurt physical media.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

MS wants to become the iTunes of HD video serving to home media servers and over cable, using VC-1 as the codec and iHD as the front end

To do that they need to seriously hurt physical media.

VC-1 is also at the core of Silverlight - which is their attempt to attack Flash and Apollo from Adobe. If VC-1 is a failure in Hollywood (ie. all that content...) then other areas of their business are compromised/have a tougher road to walk as well...

[richard lichtenfelt]

This war will be won because of Playstation 3, not studios. More PS3's will be sold this holiday season alone than hd-dvd players will have sold since its invention.
Does anyone really care about Shrek? Transformers, the fate of the world depends on a giant metal square, yea ok. Eddie Murprhy as an irritating donkey, puhlease.

[MrVorhees]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

If the BDA stand by and let this happen they don't deserve our support.

TRUE!! and i tell, if BDA just sit and watch how their format goes down, i will never buy anything else again from sony, buck PS4 or PS5, ill go xbox720 or whatever.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by HiddenDeths

TRUE!! and i tell, if BDA just sit and watch how their format goes down, i will never buy anything else again from sony, buck PS4 or PS5, ill go xbox720 or whatever.

nah! PS3 still kicks A$$ and so will PS4 or PS5, and don't be so sure there will be anothe xbox. sharholders are pissed as the XBOX has lost money in over two dozen straight quarters and has yet to show a dime of profit.