How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Grumpz]

With internet speeds constantly increasing, and the prices of Flash Media constantly decreasing, how long do you think Blu-ray will be around?

Sorry if there's already been a thread, but I didn't find it.

Is it outside the realm of belief to think that we could be plugging in jump drives to watch movies in the not so distant future?

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

It doesn't look like Ipods and the variations of them are going anywhere, and these play compressed files. HD content wouldn't need to be compressed.

I personally don't think internet will be able to stream HD content flawlessly for some time but even that will happen.

Of course I haven't considered every angle so yes there are a lot of reasons to think blu-ray will be around for yrs and yrs, but I don't see it that way. There's no need for moving parts to play any type of media. It's all data now.

I'm going to go with the first HD movie released on a jump drive in Feb of 2014. Who knows...maybe I"m nuts.

[OrlandoEastwood]

Given the fact that DVD only last about 10 years before a competitor came in, this thing better last because I am not replacing my movies after this if this Super HD 2160p comes into homes, screw that. It better last another 20 years.

[AppleCrumbDlite]

Originally Posted by OrlandoEastwood

Given the fact that DVD only last about 10 years before a competitor came in, this thing better last because I am not replacing my movies after this if this Super HD 2160p comes into homes, screw that. It better last another 20 years.

I'm not trying to be negative but I feel like your reasoning is backwards. Technology is improving and moving exponentially. With the reasoning you've put in place, I wouldnt be surprised if Blu-ray had a competitor of some type in 5-6 years.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Grumpz

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

Manufacturers pay less to produce material than is available for enduser consumption. It costs them like 1 dollar to manufacture a Blu-ray disc, but you'll not be paying that little for one anytime soon.

But that's not the only hurdle here. With the movie studios all backing Blu-ray, they're not going to jump ship too a new standard so easily. I'll concede that if/when Blu-ray is replaced, it'll probably be a solid-state drive, but really, that won't be soon. Notice also that capacity isn't the only issue here-- if a person doesn't use a flash drive correctly, they can irreparably damage the data. Yeah, optical discs can get scratched, but generally, one doesn't DESTROY ALL DATA if they make a mistake during NORMAL USE. That's the major hurdle here, I think, aside from the fact that it'll take time before studios would be willing to abandon their baby for a new one.

To say nothing of the fact that they're not going to switch to a new format unless they can entice people to rebuy again. Blu-ray delivers fine 1080p video, pristine audio, excellent security, and top notch menu capabilities. Higher resolution audio isn't possible, and higher resolution picture would fall on "deaf ears"-- higher than 1080p would be meaningless in the sizes of screens most of us use. I don't know if 4K would even be worthwhile on the bigger front projection systems. But there's 3-D. If Blu-ray is ever toppled, I think it'll probably be more to get 3-D in than because a new format is warranted. And yes, Blu-ray is capable of delivering 3-D content as true stereoscopic 3-D (rather than hardcoded anaglyphs), but when many films are filling 50 GB discs up to the brim without 3-D support, I'd think they can use that justification to bring in a new standard once 3DTV takes off in the same way HDTV is now.

I personally don't think internet will be able to stream HD content flawlessly for some time but even that will happen.

Internet can already stream 720p video with stereo audio rather well (depending on the user's speed), but high bitrate 1080p video with uncompressed audio isn't anywhere near a possibility, and that's what it'd take to supplant BD's FUNCTIONALITY, and even if it were to happen, plenty would still rather have the physical disc.

And yes, DVD has lasted 10 years already since introduction, so I figure BD's higher level of adaptability and "future-proof-ness" of it should help it remain relevant. I mean, this thing is 1080p video with uncompressed sound; nothing but BD delivers that level of quality, and until that can happen, I don't think it'll be going anywhere.

ps that "2160p" is called quadHD I think. It's 4x as many pixels as 1080p, and frankly, many people can't even tell the difference between 720p and 1080p in the "normal" screen sizes, so you really think higher resolutions will catch on? I'll admit they might, especially for very large screens, but any support for that resolution will DEFINITELY be niche and not have any chance of being mainstream, at least not as long the average American has a screen smaller than 100 inches. HD is on its way to mainstream, and BD is along for the ride as the only means of physically owning HD media.

edit:

Originally Posted by AppleCrumbDlite

I'm not trying to be negative but I feel like your reasoning is backwards. Technology is improving and moving exponentially. With the reasoning you've put in place, I wouldnt be surprised if Blu-ray had a competitor of some type in 5-6 years.

By that logic, look at how long DVD was around before buzz was happening for Blu-ray. Less than 10 years for sure, and even with Blu-ray going on its third year, DVD is still going relatively strong and still has at least a couple years left at minimum probably.

[Al_The_Strange]

It is hard to predict, and the argument could easily go either way. There are good indicators that it could stick around for years (for all the reasons stated above), but there are possibilities that it could be more short-lived. Advents in future technology can't even be predicted; 3-D movies, or higher-resolution video perhaps? I know lots of people seem to cite digital downloadable movies as a possible competitor, but I honestly don't believe that it can fully rival Blu-Ray media, due to quality, Internet infrastructure, DRM issues, and other reasons. And as for DVDs, I think more and more people are seeing the differences between low and high resolution video (my parents for example; I couldn't believe it!), and Blu-Ray adoption is definitely on the rise.

At any rate, I'm estimating 10 years.

[DVDave]

The average Joe consumer still thinks DVD is the bees knees. Try reading some reviews on Amazon and they think hi-def is a scam because they can't tell any difference at all between their upconverted DVDs and a native hi-def bluray.

[SkillzthatKillz]

until 2012 when the world ends lol

[cdot2four]

Up scaled SD DVD's are the future

[koontz1973]

It will be with us as long as it can stay with larger TV's. Right now people have around 42 inchs on average (try saying that without it sounding rude). Not long till that gets to 60, then 80, 100, 120, 200 and so on. With the advent of the 1terabyte BD in a few years, it should be with us a long time.

[P@t_Mtl]

Well I did not BD was first introduce in the 5-6 years of DVD? It took BD another 3-4 to win a format war? If you follow this I would say that we could have another format in around 2005-2006. If we are lucky it will be in another format war with something else for 4 or 5 years, so until 2011 or so to get a resolution. We can also expect DVD to be produce for some time yet. So I would expect BD to remain active until at least 2020, maybe longer.

[ckent22]

It's VERY tough to say. Taking into account movie downloads and being able to download strictly to your cpu or your xbox or ps3 is already occuring, but the bitrates and the audio aren't anywhere what you find on a Blu-ray.

I'm a big supporter of Blu-ray, so I hope it's around for a while, but at the same time, I've across a lot of people who still don't understand what Blu-ray is and who don't want to buy all their films again. It's understandable if they don't have the money. Blu-ray is still a very niche market and product. It's the best of the best, and it's still far from replacing DVD.

Prices have got to come way down until it ever replaces DVD and it ever is given mass consumption. Until that happens, I see all the major studios still supporting it UNTIL they are given a reason not to. If Blu-ray never takes off like DVD and that's a big if then it's certainly possible that they will jump ship.

I hope this doesn't happen. But, I would like to see the average consumer more educated. I think they did a better job educating people on DVD. There just hasn't been this emphasis on Blu-ray and why people should go Hi-Def.

As a matter of a fact, I just read a computer magazine the other day saying to save tons of money, skip Blu-ray for now. It makes sense if you want to save money, but this is the same problem that Blu-ray has faced since its beginning. If it's ever gonna last a long time, then it needs to come down in price.

[seigneur_rayden]

It will last a while. People must first get on the blu-ray wagon before getting in the next/future new format.

[Blubaru]

At the rate it's going, not very long I don't see it growing to point where retailers can justify keeping it on their shelves for years to come.

My guess is it will head into a D-VHS like existence and eventually disappear. Replaced by a more advanced and improved technology.

Or maybe it will stick around like LaserDisc and cater the niche HD disc community.


Two things need to happen and happen quick for Blu-ray to succeed
1. Sub $100 Player
2. Sub $20 movies

[LifeOfAPirate13]

Originally Posted by SkillzthatKillz

until 2012 when the world ends lol

Don't you mean the Day the Earth Stood Still? I mean as for how long this technology will last well that depends on if everything is going the digital download route or if they stay disk/whatever physical matter based will someone create the "next big thing" quicker than blu-ray did to DVD? It is hard to say...I would say it will be around about as long as SDVD's were based on the fact that it would suck if like "Superdisk" came out or something like that where EVERYTHING were 7.1+ and the video were better than what is currently available but then again not every household even has a 16:9 aspect ration let alone trying to make an even sharper resolution TV, and given its success currently it has quite a bit of life left.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by ckent22

It's VERY tough to say. Taking into account movie downloads and being able to download strictly to your cpu or your xbox or ps3 is already occuring, but the bitrates and the audio aren't anywhere what you find on a Blu-ray.

I'm of the opinion that downloads/streams won't be doing much to the market for owning movies, but will instead replace the market for renting movies. More than a few agree with me.

I'm a big supporter of Blu-ray, so I hope it's around for a while, but at the same time, I've across a lot of people who still don't understand what Blu-ray is and who don't want to buy all their films again. It's understandable if they don't have the money. Blu-ray is still a very niche market and product. It's the best of the best, and it's still far from replacing DVD.

First, no one has to rebuy their entire library. Upscaled DVD performs much better compared to BD than VHS compared to DVD.

Second, Blu-ray is not niche. Niche is what laserdisc was. I've never even seen a laserdisc in real life. Not in department stores, and no one I knew owned them. Heck, I doubt if most people even knew what they were; I certainly didn't until they were already dead. But with Blu-ray getting advertised all over all forms of media (sometimes exclusively and independently of a DVD release), market penetration peeking over 10% and constantly growing, and being available not just in specialty stores, but also places like department stores and even sometimes supermarkets... "niche" is definitely not the right word.

Third, even if it's "far" from replacing DVD, it's definitely on track to. The only thing holding it up are the people who are reluctant to change. Anyway, no one really knows how "far" it is from replacing; all we do know are current market shares and projected growth estimations. But even if you had perfect predictions, what is your qualifier for DVD being officially replaced? DVDs no longer being produced? DVD players no longer made? Blu-ray making up at least 50% software market share? Blu-ray making up at least 50% hardware market share? It's not really something which can be predicted, it will just happen over time. Sometime down the line, you'll be able to look back and be aware that Blu-ray has truly replaced DVD. You'd never be able to pin down a definite day that it happened though.

Prices have got to come way down until it ever replaces DVD and it ever is given mass consumption. Until that happens, I see all the major studios still supporting it UNTIL they are given a reason not to. If Blu-ray never takes off like DVD and that's a big if then it's certainly possible that they will jump ship.

Blu-ray ALREADY HAS taken off like DVD did (according to many accounts, at an even faster rate). And that's even in the face of high unemployment rates and people losing thousands in invested savings. Oh, and the fact that Blu-ray is identified as only being needed if you have HD, and HD sets are present in something like 1/3 homes.

I hope this doesn't happen. But, I would like to see the average consumer more educated. I think they did a better job educating people on DVD. There just hasn't been this emphasis on Blu-ray and why people should go Hi-Def.

It's not about "hi-def". They need to emphasize all the points, not just the 1080p picture. I'd like to see them try to reach out to the average TV watcher and explain to them about the colors, frame rate, and progressive image. I'd also like to see them touch on uncompressed audio. They do a pretty good job at making people aware of how much better menus and special features can be.

And honestly, I'd like to see them basically just say "In time, this WILL be the standard like DVD is now." People need to recognize that they're not going to "beat" Blu-ray by continuing to buy inferior DVDs.

As a matter of a fact, I just read a computer magazine the other day saying to save tons of money, skip Blu-ray for now. It makes sense if you want to save money, but this is the same problem that Blu-ray has faced since its beginning. If it's ever gonna last a long time, then it needs to come down in price.

Those kinds of articles are usually entirely misleading.

"Don't buy a Blu-ray player, put 100 dollars in a new DVD player instead!" They often ignore the fact that Blu-ray players can be bought for VERY cheap in many cases. For example, the cheapest of the good brands can be bought for 200 bucks easily. Aim for a refurb or used and you can dip down below 150. BD drives for computers can cost less than 100 dollars. They also often ignore that BD players are also upconverting DVD players. They also tend to ignore the fact that the PS3 can function as #1: a game system, #2: an upconverting DVD player, #3: a media center for digital content from the internet, #4: a Blu-ray player.

"Blu-ray discs are way too expensive. Do you want to pay 40 dollars per movie? I think not!" They always cite MSRP rather than more realistic prices that places like Best Buy charge: between 20 and 30 dollars. They never recognize prices that Amazon often has: 25 dollars and less, sometimes even below 15 dollars.

"Don't bother with Blu-ray. If you do, you'll have to rebuy every movie you already own AGAIN? How many times have you bought Star Wars? Get prepared to buy it a couple more times on Blu-ray, only this time paying much more per movie." Rebuying everything isn't a requirement and only a damned fool would think it is.

They're often accused of being paid for by Microsoft or being written by bitter HD-DVD fanboys. Honestly, I'd say those arguments are probably right at least part of the time. It can make sense to hold off on converting to Blu-ray, especially if you're short on cash and don't even have a HDTV, but to SKIP it altogether is foolish and as time goes on, people will learn how truly impossible that task will be.

Originally Posted by Blubaru

At the rate it's going, not very long I don't see it growing to point where retailers can justify keeping it on their shelves for years to come.

Why would you think that? It's growing constantly and, by many accounts, at a faster rate than DVD did.

My guess is it will head into a D-VHS like existence and eventually disappear. Replaced by a more advanced and improved technology.

Did D-VHS have full studio support? Did it ever enjoy market penetration between 10 and 20%?

Or maybe it will stick around like LaserDisc and cater the niche HD disc community.

HD is not niche, and even if it was, I think what you should be saying is "It will DEFINITELY stick around to cater to owners of HDTVs." HD sets are fairly common and becoming more common everyday. Pretty much anyone who doesn't already have one wants one and will have one in time.

Two things need to happen and happen quick for Blu-ray to succeed
1. Sub $100 Player
2. Sub $20 movies

If people have such a hard time paying 20 dollars for movies, I guess no one buys new release DVDs either...? Anyway, plenty of BDs can be bought for ~20 bucks, many even lower. Best Buy even routinely has sales, and sometimes they're really nice. For example, the X-men films just came out and Best Buy had them for 2 for 35 dollars, or roughly 17.50 each. And these movies just released AND they include movie cash for the new film in the franchise. I personally buy most of my movies for around 17 bucks or less. Rarely will I even pay as much as 25, but even for the few times I might cave and do it, I still get sub-15 dollar movies so often that it definitely balances out.

As for "sub 100 dollar player": I got one on a deal from Amazon for 99 dollars. It just takes not being completely stupid, and you'll find that Blu-ray isn't anywhere near as expensive as people think.

[andyman1970]

Originally Posted by SkillzthatKillz

until 2012 when the world ends lol

Guess that means all the Star Wars fans won't get to see their favorite movies on Blu-ray. Maybe now they can all stop asking about it...

[STARSCREAM]

While I agree that it is easy sometimes to find very good deals on blu-ray's I think more of what he is implying is that most average joe consumers don't check around for best prices and just walk into a store to buy. The only prices they are seeing is like $25-35 for new releases and some older movies as well. Heck, Best Buy instore has Sin City at $29.99. That is insane! Should be $19.99 at most! Not to mention how high the boxsets are in most stores. I just got Planet Of The Apes 40 ann. edition boxset from amazon for $57 (deal of day) and it's like $130 at Best Buy.
The prices definately need to come down.

[Grumpz]

I forgot to mention, the flash media would also eliminate the requirement for hardware for a lot of people as usb support is becoming quite popular with newer TV's.

I've got 2 TV's that support it.

[haste]

n/m

[Clark Kent]

The real question to ponder is when will the Hollywood studios pull the plug or decide to go in a different direction. Some of them are itching for a 3-D home format, thinking it will draw in new customers.