Carmack(ID Software) Suspects PS4 Will Be First To Market?

[dereksworl]

This guy's on a roll today aint he lol. He's got quotes every where. And also predicts no physical media! Linky

Carmack: PS4 will be first to market

id exec expects next hardware to ship without optical media option

John Carmack, technical director at id Software, has predicted that Sony will be the first platform holder to make a move into the next generation of gaming hardware – though he doesn’t expect any new machines to be announced in the near future.

“The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next-gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things,”

Carmack told CD-Action, as spotted by Eurogamer’s Digital Foundry.

“Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely."

“As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next-gen consoles comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later.”

Carmack also predicted that at least one of the successors to Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii will ship without the capacity for optical media.

“I think that Xbox Live and the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution,” he added.

“I think there's a decent chance that one of the next-gen consoles will be without optical media. The uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected.”

[Marine Mike]

Sony has already done so with the PSP Go as far as 'consoles without Optical Media'.

A PSP is a gaming console.

[Sponge-worthy]

By the time the 'next' gen consoles start moving, the cost of producing Blu-ray hardware will be so cheap that Sony would be stupid to lose the Blu-ray drive...if not for backward compatibility considerations alone.

[dereksworl]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

Sony has already done so with the PSP Go as far as 'consoles without Optical Media'.

A PSP is a gaming console.

But how would that affect the future of blu-ray though? If the PS4 has no optical drive i mean.

[Shin-Ra]

In 3-4 years, the average gamer still isn't going to be downloading and storing multiple lots of 50GB or more data.

So unless graphics rendering suddenly shifts in a new direction, or the industry crashes and rebuilds with all small indie-type games, good luck with that optical media-less system.

[Elandyll]

He seriously thinks a company will bet that people will be ok in downloading 1080p Games (next gen should have that pretty reliably), with humongous textures and CGI videos, over download exclusively ?
Even if CGI videos go the way of the dodo (thanks to cinematic engines), Textures and sound alone should ensure that full sized games will push the envelop of several dozen Gigs in the future.

Coming from the guy who is pushing for more space for games, and can't make his game on less than 2x8gb DVDs ... that's interesting

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by ryan69969

By the time the 'next' gen consoles start moving, the cost of producing Blu-ray hardware will be so cheap that Sony would be stupid to lose the Blu-ray drive...if not for backward compatibility considerations alone.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the PS4 will ship with an optional external Blu-ray drive for backward compatibility.

[Toxa]

Biggest Bullshit Ever

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Icemage

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the PS4 will ship with an optional external Blu-ray drive for backward compatibility.

If I were a betting man, I'd take that bet.

[TheZoof]

They aren't going to get rid of the Blu-ray drive. I can definately see all 3 next gen systems using Blu-ray though.

[Marine Mike]

Originally Posted by Toxa

Biggest Bullshit Ever

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

Do you think that they would really bring down a hammer like that on all the retailers (Best Buy, Target, etc.) and secondary sellers (Gamestop, Gamefly)?

[Blu-Generation]

Isn't this the same logic as Digital download killing Blu-ray. How many time has that logic fail? Blu-ray is still here, it's still growing, and if anything, the sign are saying Blu-ray will be here for the next 4+ years.

If anything, it's the system without media disc that have a bigger chance at failing. People still want to hold their games collection in their hands. And movie as well.

Digital distribution is an option, not a solution. Not anytime soon anyway.

[Seeking_Alpha]

Originally Posted by ryan69969

Do you think that they would really bring down a hammer like that on all the retailers (Best Buy, Target, etc.) and secondary sellers (Gamestop, Gamefly)?

Sure, because with online only no more sharing profits with retailers, all the gravy will be Sony's.

[Musashi]

First to market could be anyone, but the PS4 will be blu-ray based, probly > 8X drive speed. The others will either use blu-ray or something close enough.

[Blu-Generation]

I think people may confuse PS5 with PS4.

Perhaps in PS5 gen, all things will be digital distribution base, but PS4 gen, I don't think so. Media disc are still in, and it won't go away in a long while.

[Marine Mike]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

I think people may confuse PS5 with PS4.

Perhaps in PS5 gen, all things will be digital distribution base, but PS4 gen, I don't think so. Media disc are still in, and it won't go away in a long while.

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

[alphapyro]

Just can't see it happening. It would be a foolish move... I'd be very hesitant to spend long times downloading content for AAA titles I command and expect from game publishers to provide me for my shiney box.



We still have DVDs and Blu-rays, too. People expect their game consoles (except wii owners who scratch their heads and go, "it really doesn't play DVDs?") to also be their DVD or blu-ray player.

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

Oh, I wasn't directing it at you, specifically. It was more toward people who think digital downloads will take over in the next couple years.

If we're talking 20+ years into the future, where every home is connect to ultra fast internet and quality service, sure. I don't doubt that digital distribution will take over.

But if we're talking the next 10 years or so, media disc will still be the main thing to have.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

Agreed. Even if, some years down the line, there is a notable shift in games or other content to digital delivery, there's no reason Sony wouldn't throw a BD drive in anyway. Sony has clearly had some early success with their new format. It would behoove them to maintain as large an install base as possible for as long as possible.