I am so sick of the word 'FUD'. It's like the geek's version of the Paris Hilton

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

HD-DVD's time has come and gone. They exploited their early lead which was a smart move on their part. Sony could've ended this thing right out the gate, but their missteps cost them.

With all of the hype around the PS3 that we're going to see over the next two months though, HD-DVD is going to be struggling to get a leg up on the competition in terms of press/media time. Then after Xmas you've got the European launch, which will put them back on the front page over there.

...and the train just keeps coming...

http://www.moviesoundscentral.com/so...vitability.wav

I am so sick of the word 'FUD'. It's like the geek's version of the Paris Hilton "that's hot".

Moving on...

The 360 HD-DVD add-on is on track to sell more units than the PS3 initially. The add-on has been Amazon's number one seller in the computer and games area for quite some time. Naturally there will be a 100% attach rate for HD-DVD's with the add-on. This cannot be said about the PS3.

I doubt we will see the projected 1 million PS3's by the end of 2006 judging from all the delays and past history. EB games seems to agree with this as well.

Toshiba releasing it's second generation player before Sony's first generation and at half the price.

HD-DVD currently has more titles and is out selling BD more than 3 to 1.

Toshiba claims they have $120 million in advertising money waiting to be "unleashed" with the second generation players come out.

I would hardly say HD-DVD's time has came and gone.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by jayselle

I am so sick of the word 'FUD'. It's like the geek's version of the Paris Hilton "that's hot".

Moving on...

The 360 HD-DVD add-on is on track to sell more units than the PS3 initially. The add-on has been Amazon's number one seller in the computer and games area for quite some time. Naturally there will be a 100% attach rate for HD-DVD's with the add-on. This cannot be said about the PS3.

I doubt we will see the projected 1 million PS3's by the end of 2006 judging from all the delays and past history. EB games seems to agree with this as well.

Toshiba releasing it's second generation player before Sony's first generation and at half the price.

HD-DVD currently has more titles and is out selling BD more than 3 to 1.

Toshiba claims they have $120 million in advertising money waiting to be "unleashed" with the second generation players come out.

I would hardly say HD-DVD's time has came and gone.

What makes you think the Xbox 360 add-on will sell more than PS3 initially? Is it just because they sold out on Amazon? Do you think Amazon even had 100,000 units available for pre-order? Remember HD-DVD units use a blue laser diode as well. Quantities are limited and Sony has been hording there since the beginning of this year just to get about 1 to 2 million out this year. How many Xbox 360 add-on do you think they can make in this short amount of time?

[PeterTHX]

I am so sick of the word 'FUD'

Me too. But it's HD DVD's only weapon in this format war.

The 360 HD-DVD add-on is on track to sell more units than the PS3 initially.

And yet he talks about being sick of FUD. Let's see how many folks are going to spend 24-48 hours in line for the add on. Amazon is one store out of thousands.

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

What makes you think the Xbox 360 add-on will sell more than PS3 initially? Is it just because they sold out on Amazon? Do you think Amazon even had 100,000 units available for pre-order? Remember HD-DVD units use a blue laser diode as well. Quantities are limited and Sony has been hording there since the beginning of this year just to get about 1 to 2 million out this year. How many Xbox 360 add-on do you think they can make in this short amount of time?

Microsoft expects to have sold 10 million 360's by the end of 2006. Assuming only 5% buy the add-on then that is 500,000 HD-DVD drives. I would expect more than 5%. I think the pre-orders are around 100,000 - 250,000. Amazon initially sold out, but now is allowing more. Perhaps Microsoft geared up for higher production than initially anticipated.

Will this statistic hold true for the PS3. If only 5% are used for BD then only 50,000 of the 1 million are contributing to the BD movie sales. I imagine we will see around 500k-800k PS3's by end of 2006. Sales for the 360 are of course projected much higher than the PS3. How many folks will purchase the 360 and the add-on at the same time is unknown.

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by PeterTHX

Me too. But it's HD DVD's only weapon in this format war.



And yet he talks about being sick of FUD. Let's see how many folks are going to spend 24-48 hours in line for the add on. Amazon is one store out of thousands.

Are you serious? Speaking of standing in a line. What about the PS3 unicorn of 2006?

I would say HD-DVD's weapon has been lower prices, more titles, and outstanding picture and sound.

Unrelated to your post but to the thread starter; Fox was a DIVX hold out so there track record of being the ace card is not what it seems.

[56@Yamamoto]

Actually, the sale of HD DVD add on is strictly limited by the number of the drive supply .
Add on's drives are mainly supplied by Toshiba, there is ability for production of HD DVD-ROM drive between 30,000 to 50,000 per month today, which depend on operation rate. And, this is total HD DVD-ROM drive supply for the all purpose, from Xbox add on to CE player and PC drive.
The second source of supply is Taiwanese Lite-on. But this is limited, too. Current Lite-on's drive design is totally same as Toshiba, because they take parts supply from Toshiba, and assembles drives. Therefore their drive production is restricted to the number of the parts supply, production scale is also small so far. This situation will not change until March, 2007.

I think this is main reason why add on's Japanease and Europian release are delayed, and partial reason why HD-A2 is delayed. And according to Toshiba's european dealer's sources, supplies of HD-E1, european version of HD-A2, seems to be limited to 20,000 of them by the end of the year.

After all, production of the blue-laser optical drive is very difficult. Only Sony is achieving drive production of one millon per month, but it was also accompanied with big difficulty.

[WriteSimply]

Sony is making their own blue-laser diodes while the rest of the market - literally the rest of the market like Microsoft, Toshiba, Pioneer, Panasonic - are making do with the OEM blue laser suppliers. That's why when Sony said that it was cutting back the PS3 numbers this year because of the diodes, the rest of the market was not impacted. However, this bodes well for Sony later on when they get the diode problem fixed and supply their own diodes for the PS3 and for their BD players and recorders.

As far as the 360 add-on, it really is a stop-gap measure. It can't even be called a serious home-theater contender. It has only digital out and no analog out or HDMI. It can't do 1080p via HDMI (only RGB) and certainly won't be able be HDCP compliant either. To top that off, it can decode TrueHD but then than LPCM signal is then downconverted to Dolby Digital.

The PS3 has HDMI which can pass 1080p video and all the audio streams on a BD title. It can decode TrueHD and pass it via HDMI or pass the raw bitstream. If a future firmware allows it to decode DTS HDMA internally, then it'll be perfect.

No doubt that the add-on will get 100% attach rate. I could only assume that 5% of PS3 owners would buy PS3 regularly while another 5% semi-regularly.

Sony intends to ship 6 million PS3 by the end of their fiscal year, which is March 2007. So 5% of 6 million is 300,000 worldwide. For the Japanese market, the PS3 would be the dominant BD player for a while since the CEs there are more focused in selling BD recorders.

Toshiba's second gen player, while at half the price, also has less features than the first gen AT THE SAME PRICE. Doesn't sound like a consumer-friendly move to me, considering both players are at the same price. The early subsidization of HD-DVD players by Toshiba will cost them later on when consumers complain about the lack of features.

The reason that HD-DVD is selling more and has more titles out is because it was in the market first and its players, and not the software titles, are cheaper. Logically however with more studio support, BD can surpass HD-DVD software numbers easily without even going full-steam ahead.

Like I said, right now even Toshiba execs are biting their nails to see what surprises the PS3 and the studios supporting BD are going to do. The next slugfest will happen come CES by which time Sony and Pioneer - if they don't have any further issues - will be in the market already, making a total number of BD players to five from FOUR different CEs (while the Philips is a rebadge of Samsung, the Sony isn't even though it is made by Pioneer).


fuad

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Unrelated to your post but to the thread starter; Fox was a DIVX hold out so there track record of being the ace card is not what it seems.

A few IMPORTANT reasons why DIVX didn't win out: a) the video was CRAPPY because of the video watermarking measures they implemented and b) the video was for the most part pan&scan which early adopters of DVD hated; they want widescreen and preferably anamorphic.

Those two reasons are not on BD. No video watermarking courtesy of AACS and BD+. BDs are also using the correct OAR. This time around Fox is on the right track.


fuad

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Will this statistic hold true for the PS3? If only 5% are used for BD then only 50,000 of the 1 million are contributing to the BD movie sales.

Hmm...I know at least 400,000 people in North America that will be watching at least one movie on Blu-ray.
The HD-DVD add-on, without HDMI, is pretty much shite. You have no idea what Amazon's pre-order numbers are, no idea at all.

[partridge]

Personally I would expect pretty much every PS3 owner to pick up a movie, why wouldn't they? Every PS3 can play them, and I expect X3 will be the title most of them pick up. I expect this title to break existing sales records for HD movies of both formats.

The flaws and issues with the 360 add on will soon appear when HDtv owners find they can't output a 1080p image using analogue connections, and can MS be absolutely sure that every potential owner has the latest firmware version? You need it to use the add on. On top of that, Peter Moore himself reported that units for the add on will be low due to the infancy of the HD movie market. It'll sell in good numbers I'm sure, but at a rate that outsells a brand new console? I'll believe it when I see it.

As for 10 million Xbox360's by the end of the year; MS were aiming for that, yes, but last I read they only had 7 million sales, are they really going to shift 3 million more in two months and during the launch windows of two new consoles? Forget it! MS will issue a press release with the usual spin explaining why they didn't hit their target.

The Xbox360, like the Xbox, has it's hardcore fans, but MS have yet to crack the mass market despite a years head start. They conceded that their 1st party games have been too thin on the ground and have hardly been triple A either. Gears of War is the big Christmas game, and surprise surprise it's another first person shooter. Yeah, an unknown franchise is bound to increase sales...

If anything, from this month onward sales of the 360 will slow as consumers have 2 more consoles to choose from. MS have had their year long window and have failed to capitalise on it.

It's now down to Sony to do a better job over the first few months for PS3 than MS did with the 360.

[jayselle]

Why wouldn't every PS3 owner buy Blu-ray? How many PS3's will be hooked up to home theaters or HDTV's? Our niche, home theater, typically does not rely on game consoles for movie playback.

The demographic of the PS3 does not match the demographic of home theater enthusiast or of those with HDTV's. BD is more expensive than DVD. The PS3 only comes with composite cables. So now John Q Kid has to buy a HDMI or component cables that run $70-$100 at your nearest Best Buy assuming Kid has a HDTV.

The PS3's lack of an infrared port will also detract a lot of home theater enthusiast looking for a cheaper solution.

Flaws with the MS HD-DVD add-on? Jumping the gun aren't you? You have no idea. The PS3 could have flaws. I am willing to bet in a blind test you couldn't tell the difference between component and HDMI. I can tell on one of my displays that HDMI is better, however, I have to get close and really analyze it.

You're right. I don't know Amazon's total number. Just sales rank. But MS did say they would have 100,000 to 250,000 units.

Keep in mind the studios chose their format before sales begun. Many chose BD because of "increased" DRM. There is talk of a couple jumping ship in early 2007 depending on if the Sony promised PS3 will be a catch all. Disney in particular seems ready to come over to HD-DVD.

I'm not trying to spread "FUD" or be a "fanboy". I am just trying to bring another point of view.

Game developers are calling the systems equal. The PS3 does have higher processing power but less memory than the 360. The PS3 and 360 can and will survive together and there are some games are console exclusive. I would expect Halo 3 to surge 360 sales again.

[partridge]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Why wouldn't every PS3 owner buy Blu-ray? How many PS3's will be hooked up to home theaters or HDTV's? Our niche, home theater, typically does not rely on game consoles for movie playback.

The demographic of the PS3 does not match the demographic of home theater enthusiast or of those with HDTV's.

I disagree with you there, it's my view - based on visits to a number of forums - that the modern gamer is far more up to speed with AV than they were last time around. They know they need decent screens and sound systems to enjoy these new consoles. I'd say I'm a gamer first and AV enthusiast second, but these days the two are inseparable. MS themselves carried out a survey that showed over 90% of 360 buyers - at launch - already had an HDtv to connect it to. Why won't the same be true for PS3? I believe it will be even higher as HDtv's are selling in greater numbers than ever before.

Also, the demographics for PlayStation, since PS2 arrived, are gamers in their 20's and up - they can afford an HDtv & HDMI cable! You must be thinking of Nintendo? Maybe that's why their console doesn't support HD?

I can buy an HDMI cable in Britain for around £25, that's less than $50, and yes it's a quality make.

The flaws with the add on? Most sets won't accept 1080p via analogue, there's one. It won't work once ICT comes into play, there's two. HDMI is, I believe, required for true HD audio, there's three.

Look, it's all up to the individual but I'd rather have a complete all in one package than a "make it up as they go" Xbox360.

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by partridge

I disagree with you there, it's my view - based on visits to a number of forums - that the modern gamer is far more up to speed with AV than they were last time around. They know they need decent screens and sound systems to enjoy these new consoles. I'd say I'm a gamer first and AV enthusiast second, but these days the two are inseparable. MS themselves carried out a survey that showed over 90% of 360 buyers - at launch - already had an HDtv to connect it to. Why won't the same be true for PS3? I believe it will be even higher as HDtv's are selling in greater numbers than ever before.

Also, the demographics for PlayStation, since PS2 arrived, are gamers in their 20's and up - they can afford an HDtv & HDMI cable! You must be thinking of Nintendo? Maybe that's why their console doesn't support HD?

I can buy an HDMI cable in Britain for around £25, that's less than $50, and yes it's a quality make.

The flaws with the add on? Most sets won't accept 1080p via analogue, there's one. It won't work once ICT comes into play, there's two. HDMI is, I believe, required for true HD audio, there's three.

Look, it's all up to the individual but I'd rather have a complete all in one package than a "make it up as they go" Xbox360.

I would say you are correct that most gamers getting a PS3 are aware of HDTV. Most would probably like to have a 70" 1080p HDTV. Most do not have the means. Most children (18 and under) receiving this most likely will not have a HDTV. The remaining demographic (18-25) stereotypically does not have the luxury of HDTV and home theater.

There's no doubt the PS3 has the upper hand with HDMI and better audio support. But keep in mind, it's a gaming console first. To take full advantage of this you will need an expensive receiver as well (for TrueHD). The 360 support TrueHD but it's down mixed to Dolby 5.1.

I just can't see the PS3 being the end all be all for BD. It will have an impact, but not to the degree that every PS3 owner will rush out to buy blu-ray.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by jayselle

You're right. I don't know Amazon's total number. Just sales rank. But MS did say they would have 100,000 to 250,000 units.

they also said they'd sell 12-15 million units by december of this year. however, they're sitting on about 6 million sales worldwide...

[Monkey]

Bill Gates guaranteed 10 million in homes by the time the PS3 launched

[Chris Beveridge]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Naturally there will be a 100% attach rate for HD-DVD's with the add-on.

Can it?

I mean, I'm likely to buy one in the next month or two. But I won't be buying any movies. I've only bought one movie so far as is and that's being ebayed in another week when the BD version comes out.

Once I pick up the Xbox add on, I'll be selling off my Toshiba HD-A1.

Not everyone who buys hardware buys software.

[theknub]

chris, my question for you is, why buy it then?

if you don't have software and have no intention to support, why even spend 200?

sorry if that comes across wrong, but supposed to be a simple question than any sort of attack.

[Chris Beveridge]

Originally Posted by theknub

chris, my question for you is, why buy it then?

if you don't have software and have no intention to support, why even spend 200?

sorry if that comes across wrong, but supposed to be a simple question than any sort of attack.

Didn't read it as one, no worries.

Several reasons:

1) Reduces rack space. Right now I have the Toshiba and the Panasonic on top of each other. For the first couple of weeks later this month, the PS3 will be on top of that. It ruins the aesthetic of my component section.

2) I do rent. I've got the latest Fast and the Furious sitting on my desk to be watched for the last couple of weeks. I'll get to it. And I'm sure Universal will put out a few more new flicks that I want to see that are currently HD DVD only.

3) Costs will be negated or I'll come out ahead. I can sell King Kong for $10 easily, and odds are I can sell the HD-A1 for $200.

Should HD DVD prevail in the long run, I've got a player to watch movies in the interim and by then I'll be able to pick up a 4th or 5th gen player for under what I pay for the 360 strap-on.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Microsoft expects to have sold 10 million 360's by the end of 2006. Assuming only 5% buy the add-on then that is 500,000 HD-DVD drives.

Mmm. i'm no gamer so i'm out of the loop, but hasn't the xBox sold like half a million units monthly on average since launch, and with no competition, and you expect it to suddenly sell TWO million monthly with the PS3 selling next to it?

With that average, the number of 5% add-ons totals falls to less than the initial PS3 shipment..

but I'm no gamer so i'm probably doing mathemathical fud

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

Mmm. i'm no gamer so i'm out of the loop, but hasn't the xBox sold like half a million units monthly on average since launch, and with no competition, and you expect it to suddenly sell TWO million monthly with the PS3 selling next to it?

With that average, the number of 5% add-ons totals falls to less than the initial PS3 shipment..

but I'm no gamer so i'm probably doing mathemathical fud

The 10 million may be hopeful, but not impossible. The PS3 will stir up quite a rage like the 360 did last year. Most folks won't be able to get their hands on the PS3; what's the alternative. The PS3 shortage will help the 360.

The 360 has also had the highest accessory attach rate for any console gaming system before. I imagine 10-15% is far more likely for HD-DVD add-ons to be purchased.