kind of put's it into perspective ......

[joeorc]

first you have this statement:

Toshiba Lowers 2007 HD DVD Player Sales Projections
Tue Jun 12, 2007

Toshiba had previously said it expected worldwide sales of around 3 million units for the same period, but today the company declined to provide a new estimate just yet, with Yoshihide Fujii, head of Toshiba's digital consumer business saying, "obviously we are going to have to lower our previous global estimate."

than this one:

The manufacturer said Tuesday that it now expects to sell 1 million HD DVD players and recorders in North America by the end of its fiscal year (ending March 2008), down 44 percent from its previous estimate of 1.8 million unit sales.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...rojections/693

so now down to (1) million

so here we are through july,aug,sept,oct, and now through almost mid NOV

and what do we have now:

HD DVD Camp Crows About Player Penetration
Author: THOMAS K. ARNOLD
tarnold@questex.com
Posted: November 7, 2007
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The HD DVD camp is glowing over reports that the temporary price cut of the entry-level Toshiba HD DVD player is pushing U.S. household penetration toward the 500,000-unit mark.

Industry sources say that in the three days after Wal-Mart lowered the price of the second-generation HD-A2 player to less than $100, the big discount chain sold 60,000 units. Other chains that matched the price, both in stores and online, brought the total sold to nearly 100,000 units. Add that to the estimated 320,000 dedicated HD DVD players already in homes, and total household penetration is at about 420,000 units — a number format backers expect will exceed 500,000 units by the end of this month.

The Toshiba player previously sold for the list price of $299, but then Wal-Mart and other retailers a few days before Halloween went down to below $200 and, on Nov. 2, $99.

On the Blu-ray side, the cheapest stand-alone players — from Sony, Samsung and Sharp — list for $499, with Amazon.com selling the Sony BDP-5300 for $439, the Samsung BD-P1400 for $405 and the Sharp Aquos BDHP20U for $414. All three are 1080p, while the Toshiba HD-A2 is 720p/1080i. The PlayStation 3, which also plays Blu-ray discs, lists as low as $399. It’s $389 at Wal-mart.

This week, the HD-A2 is back up to $199 on Wal-Mart’s Web site, with a mail-in offer for five free HD DVD movies. The Sony BDP-S300 is $449 and comes with seven free movies.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=11509

thats estimated...420,000 players total.....

so it started off at 3 million now down to 1 million can Toshiba even sell another 500,000+ players before march 2008....
drop them to $98.00 Toshiba what are you waiting for.....
what's a matter the your first target sales figure's were (3 million) once it reaches APR 2008 it would be 2 years HD DVD has been on the market and yet has not been able to sell even a million units in a single year....

[JadedRaverLA]

While the "floating" sales target's of Toshiba are always amusing... you do need to keep in mind that the initial 3 million projection was worldwide. The newer 1 million (by March of 2008) is for North America only... and while they still won't make it (barring any more $99 sales), at least it's closer to the realm of possibility.

[bluperch]

It's getting close [heavy sarcasm]. Let's see. Almost seven million PS3s sold worldwide to 420,000 HD DVD players.

EDIT: I just noticed up above it said closing in on 500,000 in the U.S. The numbers I've seen show HD DVD players to be at 420,000+ worldwide. Now I gotta go recheck some numbers.

I thought I read that Sony is hoping for 10,000,000 (10 million) PS3s by the end of this year. And some "pro" blog showed a sales graph that would seem to indicate that the PS3 will surpass XBOX 360 totals some time in '08.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by bluperch

I thought I read that Sony is hoping for 10,000,000 (10 million) PS3s by the end of this year. And some "pro" blog showed a sales graph that would seem to indicate that the PS3 will surpass XBOX 360 totals some time in '08.

I beleive it is for the end of their fiscal year (end of March 2008).

Gary

[JAGUAR1977]

I think we all knew this already.

HD-DVD specialises in spinning the flimsiest of pro HD-DVD news, from 3m to 500k, yet becaue 90k were sold in a single week firesale, that's apparently a great success for the format.

That's HD-DVD logic for you.

[bluperch]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I beleive it is for the end of their fiscal year (end of March 2008).

Gary

That makes more sense (though that'd be pretty cool if they sell three million PS3s in the next 6 or 7 weeks.

[Frode]

Originally Posted by bluperch

It's getting close [heavy sarcasm]. Let's see. Almost seven million PS3s sold worldwide to 420,000 HD DVD players.

More like 5.5M: www.vgchartz.com

They'd have to almost double their total sales in only 5 months. I don't think it'll happen.

Europe is a blip on the radar as far as HD DVD player sales go. Only the E1 is available and no new models so I doubt it'll have much of an impact on their world wide numbers.

[HD DX]

Originally Posted by Frode

More like 5.5M: www.vgchartz.com

They'd have to almost double their total sales in only 5 months. I don't think it'll happen.

Europe is a blip on the radar as far as HD DVD player sales go. Only the E1 is available and no new models so I doubt it'll have much of an impact on their world wide numbers.

Please do not use vgchatz. That is the most unreliable nonsense on the web. It is based on zero facts but speculation on what is being sold in each territory.

[tron3]

Toshiba can't possibly see victory within their grasp. They are just milking an ignorant public now. They won't go away just for being ignored. The studios will have to stop support.

Hundreds of thousands of red adopters, and why? Because of some massive ego trip by a CEO who wouldn't join the blu-ray camp. Idiot.

[Seretur]

Here's hoping they lower their projection to 600,000 by March, and that by that time everyone who invested into HD DVD (in America, it's not happening anywhere else in statistically quantifiable numbers) is pleased enough with their returns to start considering an investment into the actual HD format.

Obviously those people are still riding high on their perception of the firesale news. The sooner the actual software sales prove them wrong, the better for the overall scene. I'm sure most of them are decent people driven to antagonistic behavior for the simple reason of wanting to self-justify a financial expenditure, but they just unintentionally help the Toshiba and Microsoft make life difficult for the worldwide HD audiences.

[Anthony P]

Toshiba can't possibly see victory within their grasp. They are just milking an ignorant public now. They won't go away just for being ignored. The studios will have to stop support.

do you really think they are looking for victory? Sometimes it is not about victory but about slowing something else down so that it does not win.

[bluperch]

Originally Posted by Frode

More like 5.5M: www.vgchartz.com

They'd have to almost double their total sales in only 5 months. I don't think it'll happen.

Europe is a blip on the radar as far as HD DVD player sales go. Only the E1 is available and no new models so I doubt it'll have much of an impact on their world wide numbers.

I took my numbers from here: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/0...x-360-q2-2007/, which shows PS3 at 6.8 million as of September 2007.

[mystiksuicide]

I guess Toshiba to borrow a Disney song (sorry Disney) must have as they're theme song "When you wish upon a star"

[powerSURG]

Sweet, to the OP i say; Good work! This is great!

[darkpoet25]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

do you really think they are looking for victory? Sometimes it is not about victory but about slowing something else down so that it does not win.

Exactly. A big reason is that M$ doesn't support either format. Bill Gate$ only wants to prolong this war so he can have his HD download content. If this is true, M$ could be backing Toshiba with some under the table funding. That's a big if too, but I wouldn't put it past them. However I see what Gate$ is trying to do as being like DIVX, and we all know what happened to that. Worst case scenario is that both will reach a stalemate and both will be gone, but IMO I can't see this happening. With the sales of BD software leading 2:1 here in the states, 4:1 in Europe and 9:1 in Japan, not to mention sales of players including the PS3, I feel at some point Blu Ray will eventually win and be the lone format.

[Neo65]

We all have to agree that the $98 sale moved close to 100k. If 320k dedicated players meant standalones only, then the 360 add did not count, but that would mean that since Toshiba released numbers of 54% to 52% of standalone players sold being HD DVD, BD players would be selling 250k-280k units.

Since this is not the case from what various sides point out, this must mean that the dedicated 320k (now 420k) units includes the 360 addons.

That's my guess.

[Frode]

Originally Posted by HD DX

Please do not use vgchatz. That is the most unreliable nonsense on the web. It is based on zero facts but speculation on what is being sold in each territory.

It's the only one I know of that shows console and game sales regularly. If you have a better source I'd love to know (I'm not being sarcastic here - I really would love to know).

[Frode]

Originally Posted by bluperch

I took my numbers from here: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/0...x-360-q2-2007/, which shows PS3 at 6.8 million as of September 2007.

From that:

Sony’s PlayStation 3 also edged slightly above its 6 million goal for Q2 by shipping 6,210,000 units to stores.

They're showing shipped, not sell through. In addition the september numbers are estimated. The problem with it is that the Toshiba and add-on numbers are sell through, so you'd be comparing to apples to oranges. It's also very hard to quantify the number of PS3 users who buy it for BDs, or have at some time bought a BD.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by Neo65

We all have to agree that the $98 sale moved close to 100k. If 320k dedicated players meant standalones only, then the 360 add did not count, but that would mean that since Toshiba released numbers of 54% to 52% of standalone players sold being HD DVD, BD players would be selling 250k-280k units.

Since this is not the case from what various sides point out, this must mean that the dedicated 320k (now 420k) units includes the 360 addons.

That's my guess.

they have always counted the add on as a dedicated player because when people buy the HD DVD add on they are doing it for the sole purpose of playing HD DVD's...it is just a PR stunt so they can say the playstation 3 does not count but the HD DVD add on does...

[partridge]

HD downloads are not going to happen any time soon in a way that will impact sales of disc based movies. MS have these fluffy cloud "visions" that they see everyone making use of, then reality kicks in and they quietly fall back to making the next version of Vista and Office; the only things that actually make them money!

I expect the PS3, at its new price, to quickly catch up to the 360 then surpass it by the end of 2008. Around the same time HD-DVD will have fallen flat on its face.