2006 - The Box Office of Doom for HD DVD?

[dialog_gvf]

The 2006 results:

Looking at the top 25:

The top 4, 7 of top 10, and 16 of top 25 are BD exclusive.
Two (#17 and #21) are HD DVD exclusive.

Overall for the studios:

Top 3 are BD exclusive.

BD exclusive: 57% (113 movies)
Neutral: 24.6% (47 movies)
HD DVD exclusive: 11.4% (25 movies)

Call me insane, but I wonder if movies will be a factor in these home movie format wars?

Kudos to Fox (X-Men and Ice Age already released). Come on Disney (Cars and Pirates) and Sony (The da Vinci Code).

I expect Casino Royale will be coming.

Gary

[goodstuff]

Found this on another board (dvdtalk) to help you out! I'd also add that V For Vendetta and Poseidon should be out on BD as well this year, so that's an additional two less for HD-DVD
On HD DVD and/or Blu-ray (22 titles; 12 Blu-ray exclusive; 6 HD DVD exclusive; 4 available on both formats)

3. X-Men: The Last Stand (Blu-ray)
5. Superman Returns (Both)
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown (Blu-ray)
10. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Blu-ray)
11. Click (Blu-ray)
12. Mission: Impossible III (Both)
14. The Devil Wears Prada (Blu-ray)
16. The Break-Up (HD DVD)
19. Scary Movie 4 (HD DVD)
25. Eight Below (Blu-ray)
27. Nacho Libre (Both)
28. You, Me and Dupree (HD DVD)
29. Monster House (Blu-ray)
32. RV (Blu-ray)
33. V for Vendetta (HD DVD)
34. World Trade Center (Both)
37. Miami Vice (HD DVD)
39. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (HD DVD)
40. Underworld: Evolution (Blu-ray)
47. Little Man (Blu-ray)
48. Invincible (Blu-ray)
49. The Benchwarmers (Blu-ray)

Announced but not yet released on HD DVD and/or Blu-ray (4 titles; 2 Blu-ray exclusive; 2 potentially available on both with 1 currently an HD DVD exclusive)

20. Failure to Launch (Both)
22. Open Season (Blu-ray)
26. Saw III (Blu-ray)
44. Poseidon (HD DVD, at least for now)

Currently available on DVD; not available in high-def (14 titles; 9 Blu-ray exclusive; 2 HD DVD exclusive; 3 potentially available on both)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
2. Cars (Blu-ray)
4. The Da Vinci Code (Blu-ray)
8. Over the Hedge (Both)
21. Inside Man (HD DVD)
24. The Pink Panther (Blu-ray)
30. Jackass: Number Two (Both)
35. Big Momma's House 2 (Blu-ray)
36. Step Up (Blu-ray)
31. Barnyard: The Original Party Animals (Both)
38. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion (Blu-ray)
43. The Shaggy Dog (Blu-ray)
45. Little Miss Sunshine (Blu-ray)
46. Curious George (HD DVD)

Not yet released on home video; not officially announced for either format (10 titles; 7 Blu-ray exclusive; 0 HD DVD exclusive; 3 potentially available on both)

7. Happy Feet (Both)
9. Casino Royale (Blu-ray)
13. Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Blu-ray)
15. The Departed (Both)
17. Night at the Museum (Blu-ray)
18. The Pursuit of Happyness (Blu-ray)
23. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (Blu-ray)
41. Flushed Away (Both)
42. Deja Vu (Blu-ray)
50. Eragon (Blu-ray)

[Deciazulado]

I think I posted this once (or part of it) but since were discusing box office colors....

Position Title Studio Domestic Gross Year
1 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of Sith Fox $380,270,577 2005
2 The Chronicles of Narnia: BV $291,710,957 2005
3 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $290,013,036 2005
4 War of the Worlds Par. $234,280,354 2005
5 King Kong Uni. $218,080,025 2005
6 Wedding Crashers NL $209,255,921 2005
7 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory WB $206,459,076 2005
8 Batman Begins WB $205,343,774 2005
9 Madagascar DW $193,595,521 2005
10 Mr. & Mrs. Smith Fox $186,336,279 2005
11 Hitch Sony $179,495,555 2005
12 The Longest Yard Par. $158,119,460 2005
13 Fantastic Four Fox $154,696,080 2005
14 Chicken Little BV $135,386,665 2005
15 Robots Fox $128,200,012 2005
16 Walk the Line Fox $119,519,402 2005
17 The Pacifier BV $113,086,868 2005
18 Fun with Dick and Jane Sony $110,332,737 2005
19 The 40-Year-Old Virgin Uni. $109,449,237 2005

10/19 vs 2/19


1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's BV $421,392,843 2006
2 Cars BV $244,082,982 2006
3 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox $234,362,462 2006
4 The Da Vinci Code Sony $217,536,138 2006
5 Superman Returns WB $200,077,851 2006
6 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $195,330,621 2006
7 Over the Hedge P/DW $155,019,340 2006
8 Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Sony $148,213,377 2006
9 Click SonR $137,340,146 2006
10 Mission: Impossible III Par. $133,501,348 2006
11 The Devil Wears Prada Fox $124,555,824 2006
12 The Break-Up Uni. $118,703,275 2006


8/12 vs 1/12

I haven't updated it with the latest things like Happy Feet and Casino Royale etc but I think we know how the 2006 list would be heading with those

[Maximus]

I think it is fair to say that with only Universal, Warner and Paramount releasing on HD DVD, they will struggle to keep up with BD, as Warner and Paramount will do day and date for HD/BD releases form now on. Universal also had a very poor 2005/2006 and don't look like turning it around in 2007, while Sony/Fox/Disney are going to be immense next year with Spiderman/PotC/Wolverine their biggest releases.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

I think I posted this once (or part of it) but since were discusing box office colors....

Position Title Studio Domestic Gross Year
1 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of Sith Fox $380,270,577 2005
2 The Chronicles of Narnia: BV $291,710,957 2005
3 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $290,013,036 2005
4 War of the Worlds Par. $234,280,354 2005
5 King Kong Uni. $218,080,025 2005
6 Wedding Crashers NL $209,255,921 2005
7 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory WB $206,459,076 2005
8 Batman Begins WB $205,343,774 2005
9 Madagascar DW $193,595,521 2005
10 Mr. & Mrs. Smith Fox $186,336,279 2005
11 Hitch Sony $179,495,555 2005
12 The Longest Yard Par. $158,119,460 2005
13 Fantastic Four Fox $154,696,080 2005
14 Chicken Little BV $135,386,665 2005
15 Robots Fox $128,200,012 2005
16 Walk the Line Fox $119,519,402 2005
17 The Pacifier BV $113,086,868 2005
18 Fun with Dick and Jane Sony $110,332,737 2005
19 The 40-Year-Old Virgin Uni. $109,449,237 2005

10/19 vs 2/19


1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's BV $421,392,843 2006
2 Cars BV $244,082,982 2006
3 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox $234,362,462 2006
4 The Da Vinci Code Sony $217,536,138 2006
5 Superman Returns WB $200,077,851 2006
6 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $195,330,621 2006
7 Over the Hedge P/DW $155,019,340 2006
8 Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Sony $148,213,377 2006
9 Click SonR $137,340,146 2006
10 Mission: Impossible III Par. $133,501,348 2006
11 The Devil Wears Prada Fox $124,555,824 2006
12 The Break-Up Uni. $118,703,275 2006


8/12 vs 1/12

I haven't updated it with the latest things like Happy Feet and Casino Royale etc but I think we know how the 2006 list would be heading with those

You should post this on that OTHER forum

[Deane Johnson]

I think what you're seeing happen with Universal is bad decision making under NBC ownership. Not only are they having trouble fielding winning movies, but their management decision to back HD-DVD exclusively is going to put them well behind in the high def business also.

Someone's head at Universal will roll before the end of 2007 over these bad decisions.

[Zvi]

HMurchison will find a way to spin this in HD DVD favor, and I'd be really curious to see how

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

You should post this on that OTHER forum

Posted here months ago. This is probably the proccess it has to go thru if it's tried to be posted "elsewhere"

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

I think it is fair to say that with only Universal, Warner and Paramount releasing on HD DVD, they will struggle to keep up with BD, as Warner and Paramount will do day and date for HD/BD releases form now on. Universal also had a very poor 2005/2006 and don't look like turning it around in 2007, while Sony/Fox/Disney are going to be immense next year with Spiderman/PotC/Wolverine their biggest releases.

If Warner is going to catch-up and stay parallel (Paramount is already there), it is totally impossible for one studio, #6 in 2006, to be releasing titles at the same rate as three other studios with the box office hits to support releases.

If the BD studios make even a half-effort in 2007, the title counts will crush HD DVD by next Xmas. And the difference between the shelves of players and the shelves of discs will make it very clear to the "average consumer" who should win.

Gary

P.S. Weren't DIVX players cheaper too?

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

If Warner is going to catch-up and stay parallel (Paramount is already there), it is totally impossible for one studio, #6 in 2006, to be releasing titles at the same rate as three other studios with the box office hits to support releases.

If the BD studios make even a half-effort in 2007, the title counts will crush HD DVD by next Xmas. And the difference between the shelves of players and the shelves of discs will make it very clear to the "average consumer" who should win.

According to the Apocalist™ table, HD DVD had about 18 titles per month on average last year while BD had 23, so using only that early sample number, we would have another 216 HD DVDs, vs 276 BDs, in a year.

But to mantain that pace for HD DVD, Universal alone has to release another 83 HD DVDs in that period to keep the numbers up, while to just equal the total HD DVD output, SonyColumbiaTri-Star/Fox/Warner/Paramount/BuenaVistaDisneyPixar/MGM would only have to release 36 BDs each if divided that way.

Kind of unfair to Universal

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

If Warner is going to catch-up and stay parallel (Paramount is already there), it is totally impossible for one studio, #6 in 2006, to be releasing titles at the same rate as three other studios with the box office hits to support releases.

If the BD studios make even a half-effort in 2007, the title counts will crush HD DVD by next Xmas. And the difference between the shelves of players and the shelves of discs will make it very clear to the "average consumer" who should win.

Gary

P.S. Weren't DIVX players cheaper too?

DIVX players were subsidised by the interested parties to maintain a lower price than DVD, and similarities?

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

According to the Apocalist™ table, HD DVD had about 18 titles per month on average last year while BD had 23, so using only that early sample number, we would have another 216 HD DVDs, vs 276 BDs, in a year.

But to mantain that pace for HD DVD, Universal alone has to release another 83 HD DVDs in that period to keep the numbers up, while to just equal the total HD DVD output, SonyColumbiaTri-Star/Fox/Warner/Paramount/BuenaVistaDisneyPixar/MGM would only have to release 36 BDs each if divided that way.

Kind of unfair to Universal

HD-DVD only has 15 titles coming out between Dec and April right?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

HD-DVD only has 15 titles coming out between Dec and April right?

Well I think we can safely assume that there will be more than 15, but how many more is the question and can they keep up with BD.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

HD-DVD only has 15 titles coming out between Dec and April right?

That's what's been announced for the US to date.
I also seen a worldwide unreleased list with more (without dates).
Only about 10 new Universals in there.

[Deane Johnson]

It would not surprise me to see at least 15 per month from the combined Blu-Ray studios. Maybe reaching 15 per week during 2007.

[Zvi]

Damn, that'd be intense 15 per week, I'd love that, ouch for my valet tho.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

According to the Apocalist™ table, HD DVD had about 18 titles per month on average last year while BD had 23, so using only that early sample number, we would have another 216 HD DVDs, vs 276 BDs, in a year.

But to mantain that pace for HD DVD, Universal alone has to release another 83 HD DVDs in that period to keep the numbers up, while to just equal the total HD DVD output, SonyColumbiaTri-Star/Fox/Warner/Paramount/BuenaVistaDisneyPixar/MGM would only have to release 36 BDs each if divided that way.

Kind of unfair to Universal

Three per month per studio? That would be extremely poor support, in my opinion.

So, taking a slow support level of three titles twice per month (6 titles/month) from each of the major five studios, that would be 360 titles for 2007. Assuming 36 titles from MGM and 18 from LGF, that would be a total of 414 for 2007.

HD DVD would get 144 of those titles + maybe 18 from Weinstein.

So all Universal needs to do is to dump 252 titles to keep HD DVD level. Any better support of course puts HD DVD deeper in the hole. Perhaps Universal can create 200 versions of KK to fill that void somewhat?

Gary

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

That's what's been announced for the US to date.
I also seen a worldwide unreleased list with more (without dates).
Only about 10 new Universals in there.

Thats what i thought.
15 for HD-DVD
57 for Blu-ray

[Deane Johnson]

There will surely be a number of announcements at CES for both formats. We'll have a better feel for the first half of the year after that.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

HD DVD would get 144 of those titles + maybe 18 from Weinstein.

I think with that, you ran out of Weinsteins total output!

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

So all Universal needs to do is to dump 252 titles to keep HD DVD level.

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps Universal can create 200 versions of KK to fill that void somewhat?

Well Universal has lots of old titles, but I can see Fullframe Open Matte Kong, Fullframe Pan/Scan Kong, Extended Kong (OAR), Extended Fullframe Open Matte Kong, Extended Fullframe Pan/Scanned Kong, Fullframe Open Matte Unrated Kong, Fullframe Pan/Scan Unrated Kong, Extended Unrated Kong (OAR), Extended Fullframe Open Matte Unrated Kong, Extended Fullframe Pan/Scanned Unrated Kong, American Pie Kong, Unrated American Pie Extended Kong Fullframe Open Matte American Pie Kong, Fullframe Pan/Scan American Kong, Extended Fullframe Open Matte American Pie Kong, Extended Fullframe Pan/Scanned American Pie Kong, Extended Fullframe Open Matte American Pie Kong Unrated, Extended Fullframe Pan/Scanned American Pie Kong Unrated, Deluxe Box Set with several of the previous variations mentioned thrown at random inside Kong, Deluxe Box Set with one each of the previous variations mentioned thrown inside Kong, etc, etc