WB Con Job?

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

On the flip side, HD DVD needs to keep Warner to survive. And Microsoft needs the war to stagnate the physical market and allow their download goals the time to catch on.

You'll note Amir is now using the limitted life argument against Blu-ray. HD DVD is cheaper to deal with for the limitted remaining life of physical media.

But, of course, it's based on a premise many consider nonsense. There is no indication right now that consumers are interested in downloads replacing the physical.

Gary

Correct. As has always been the case and will continue to be: HD-DVD can afford to lose nothing whatsoever.

[darinp2]

And BTW. Blu-ray needs Warner and New Line (I think they go together). Having Lord of the Rings come out on HD DVD exclusively would hurt Blu-ray a lot, much like I hope it gets released for Blu-ray exclusively and helps end this war.

--Darin

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Barnum

I can see them staying as is since they are pulling money from both sides. If they picked one over the other they lose that other segment of business. After all it is all about the money.

This is shortsighted. They will make more money in the long run by going blu only. The reason is simple. If their going blu-exclusive essentially ended the format war it would massively accelerate broad adoption of next-gen. Warner, like all studios, badly needs next-gen HD media to overtake DVDs whose margins are eroding radpily every qtr.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I believe there is a good chance that one reason somebody started a fake rumor about Warner going to Blu-ray was so that if they did at least start the process of moving to Blu-ray later and word got leaked, some would see it as the same thing or similar enough to get dismiss it. Penton-Man downplayed the last rumor, but not this one. I think that other rumor gives this one more credibility because he downplayed it and showed he wouldn't just play up a Warner rumor because he wanted it to happen.

One thing to note, excluding Penton-Man from the equation (no offense Penton-Man ), is that this whole "We may pick ONE format" actually was started by none other than Ron Sanders himself around CEDIA. It was mentioned AGAIN by Dan Silverberg at the BD festival. The only person denying anything is the official WB spokesman, Jim Noonan.

Keep in mind also that another of the Insiders on this forum recently stated that Ron Sanders is the only reason WB is still releasing on HD DVD...

What it all means...I don't know. But it certainly means something, especially if we add Penton's recent correction of me to being 100% sure that WB will be releasing on BD in 2008.

[badboi]

All I can say is that I'm done ordering Warner titles. I have close to 30 of them now, have all the Potters, pre-ordered Pans Laby, have some pre-orders for January, and that's as far as I'll go for now. All the remaining Warner titles I'm not too interested in, or I'll wait until they re-release them and give them the better audio and video they deserve (not the same as the HD DVD version). If Batman, V for Vendetta and Matrix mysteriously appear before February, I'll snap those up as well (highly doubt that scenario, but one never knows). But really, Warner either needs to doo-doo or get off the pot. You can only drag this game on for so long before people finally get tired of it. Make a decision one way or the other and let's move on with one format please.

[Crackbone]

Like I said in the insider's thread(or asked. ) .. I ask it again here...

How long will the industry as a whole deal with HD DVD's under performance? It's been hammered all year long. It was on its last legs this summer until they bought Paramount. It seems like the supporters want the goalposts moved every time they make a prediction and then fall flat on their rear ends...

Here we are, end of 2007, and @ least it appears that BD will go 51-1 and @ best 52-0 for the entire year.

How long can the HD DVD camp continue to play this T-ball like game where they feel that no one should keep score?

Furthermore, how long is the industry going to stand by and watch it flounder?

[maconomics]

I don't think that Warner has the balls to go Blu exclusive. I think M$ and the HD-DVD group will try to pull another fast one!

[Living Near Shamu]

The way I see it, I don't think they can make an announcement on CES based on the holiday sales, can they? After all, the sales won't officially end until Dec 31st, maybe Jan 2nd. Everyone will try to squeeze something in before the end of the year and everyone will try and spend their gift cards before the end of the year to grab the last big sale. Otherwise they'd have to wait for Memorial Day weekend.

Now, can Warner get enough numbers in 4-5 days to announce it at CES? I think that they have already made their decision, and are waiting on the numbers to continue backing up that decision. If the numbers continue to stay strong they will make their announcement. If the numbers were to go down, they already have prepared a statement saying - we're still neutral, and not going anywhere. Decisions like this, involving billions of $$, are not made up in 3 days.

Now, lets think worst case scenario and they go RED. What does this mean? Could Toshiba be planning a coup de grace against the Blu camp? If Warner goes RED (ugh) and lets say DISNEY announces neutrality - as long as their 51G disc is out - What does this mean to the rest? Will Sony continue battling this war? Will Fox have enough on its catalog to support Blu with Sony?

The no-change scenario. Warner continues to say they're neutral. Disney sees this doesn't change, realizes that, whether we like it or not, there are almost 1M Red players out there and that everyone is a potential 2-3 HDM customer, and changes stance to neutral (again, thinking the 51G disc pans out).

Best case scenario, is Warner goes blu, as expected, and soon thereafter Paramount and Universal switch stance or Toshiba gives it up. The question is, people that bought a Red player, will they be willing to dish out another $100+ to pay for another player, in this case, the blu-ray disc?

I love being blu, I have tried to convert coworkers, friends, family to go blu, educating them on the media, why its best compared to the Red side, etc. I have already bought 20+ blu-ray discs and I haven't even seen one yet (PS3 for xmas). I have parties scheduled for late December to show off the PS3 its blu-ray capabilities and the gaming side of it, as well as the internet portion of the entertainment center. But I have to agree I don't want to see the blu side fail, and I'm skeptic about Warner coming full-time on board with us. I can only hope God can prove me wrong.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Crackbone

Furthermore, how long is the industry going to stand by and watch it flounder?

My personal view is that if Warner really is leaning toward going exclusively to Blu-ray if things don't change, then if Harry Potter and Blade Runner don't show a good shift toward HD DVD, it will pretty much be over (Warner and New Line moving to Blu-ray). If HD DVD can get the ratio for the new Harry Potter to closer than 1.3:1 for Blu-ray then that could stop a move and 1.5:1 or greater for Blu-ray would keep Warner leaning toward going to Blu-ray (if that is where they've been leaning from sales numbers up until this point). If Warner and New Line move to Blu-ray then I don't see much that Toshiba could do to stop an eventual win for Blu-ray, other than things which would be poor business decisions (not worth nearly as much as it would cost them).

Shorter answer: If things don't move HD DVD's direction soon, then I think the industry (mostly Warner) will stop being patient, but one good showing for them on a big neutral title and they could get a reprieve for a while.

--Darin