Download or buy a disc?

[jdub905]

downloads are cool for like rentals and maybe shows, but for movies that take up quite a bit of space id go disc. I like collecting them anyway, and also you probably wouldnt get any special features with downloads anyway.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Kristin Simard

I think you are right, downloads are coming, but I don't think they will replace discs. Not in video anyway, and not for a very long time if at all. It will be an option. The consumer will decide ultimately what they want. I think there will be a demand for discs for a long enough time to not worry about buying into something obsolete for now. Downloads can become obsolete, too. (Hardware changes, Format changes, etc.)

THANK YOU!

I think we'll have some sort of disc/media in stores for a long time coming, however the stock will continue to get smaller as time goes on as people start to embrace dl's.

[photorebel]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Yes, enthusiasts will prefer a higher quaility DISC that will still be around for some time. However, like CD's, mp3's are not always the same quailty. In fact, on Itunes (THE MOST POP MUSIC DL SITE), they are of a lesser quality in most cases, yet people buy them up buy the thousands daily. People want the conveinence versus quality.

:

Convenience over quality, you're exactly right! Although I'd add "inexpensive" to go along with convenience, in that both are preferred over quality by the mass market.
I think the HD disc market will be around for sometime, but the download..direct to your TV rental model will probably take off, displacing current rental models. (brick and mortar stores, Netflix and any other online).

BTW, I have an iPod, and have never purchased a single song from iTunes. I still buy CDs, upload them to my iTunes and listen to them on my iPod, because it's convenient. If I want a quality listening section, I have a decent home theater setup with good speakers. So I still have a choice.
I like the idea of renting a movie via internet, direct to my TV. If I really like it, I'll buy it on BluRay. If I hate the movie, I'm only out a couple of bucks. That's the way I see it.

[BlurayManiac]

i will only nuy discs never download them

[Kristin Simard]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

I think we'll have some sort of disc/media in stores for a long time coming, however the stock will continue to get smaller as time goes on as people start to embrace dl's.

I agree with the first half of that sentence, I would not bet on the second part right now. Why? You can walk into a store and buy 20 BDs in 5 minutes. How long would it take to download that much?

Not to mention all the possible restrictions on DLs.

[Kayne314]

I think what Microsoft is advocating isn't really a movie download service, but instead a Video on Demand service, where you get to see the movie, but not own it, and no physical data dump is required. The data remains on the Microsoft server, and you access it when you want to see it, at a fee.

There are a lot of systems already set up to do this across North America and the the rest of the World. Increasing this to HD quality is definitely feasible.

If one wants to "own" the movie, an extra fee could be paid to initiate a record function at the same time the video is streamed to the set-top box. Where it is stored on the hard-drive or copied to a HD/BD burner. Microsoft's contribution will be to create DRM software that prevents copying of the VOD if the extra fee isn't paid.

I already have SD VOD in my home. Let me say this. IT SUCKS. The VOD crashes if there are too many people accessing it at one time. The Video quality is well below that of even DVDs. The sound is usually a 2.1 Dolby mix that sounds like it came out of the South end of a North bound donkey. It has NONE of the features DVD or Blu-Ray give me, and I rarely use it.

If this is the unstoppable future of High Def Movies, then I really can't see it catching on to the point it crushes Blu-Ray. They've got a LONG LONG way to go before they can have this up to Blu-Ray quality. They can't even replicate DVD quality. Maybe in 10 years it will be feasible, but not before.

VOD is already here, and has been for years. It hasn't affected DVD sales. It hasn't even affected rentals. I don't see anything to worry about.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Kristin Simard

I agree with the first half of that sentence, I would not bet on the second part right now. Why? You can walk into a store and buy 20 BDs in 5 minutes. How long would it take to download that much?

Not to mention all the possible restrictions on DLs.

I use CD's as a reference for this. Years ago, best buy had rows and rows of CD's in stock. Online purchasing made it feasable for Best Buy to still offer the rare but not popular titles from their online store. As itunes and sites like Napster back in the day cut into CD profits, they have steadily reduced the amount on hand in their store. They will still carry most movies but instead of having 10 copies, maybe its only 5 as DL's become more popular.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Kayne314

VOD is already here, and has been for years. It hasn't affected DVD sales. It hasn't even affected rentals. I don't see anything to worry about.

It hasn't had in impact because they only offer the most recent titles.

Imagine now, having access to ALL the movies Netflix offers, but now I can watch instantly!!

Yes, it is a maturing process. I suspect it won't even be HD at first , but they are laying down a solid map. LG is just a pawn for netflix, if they show that this is even remotley successful, I see it being integrated into the ps3.

[jurassic_pork]

Please not only are the broadband penetration rates in the US not as good as advertised keep in mind that the folks that actually do have broadband access don't have the bandwidth to support this on a mass media effort. I mean we can barely get by with trying to run VoIP over DSL and cable modem imagine everyone at home trying to download hi-def movies over the same crappy and limited connections. Unless you are talking about places like South Korea or Japan where everyone has broadband and at killer speeds then this won't happen for a long time.

[Kristin Simard]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Imagine now, having access to ALL the movies Netflix offers, but now I can watch instantly!!

And imagine information about your viewing habits, when, from where, what and how often you watch, which scenes you watch over and over again...etc. all being monitored and tracked by a corporation who does God-knows-what with that information.

- not for me, thank you

[crystal_sun]

Buy a disc..movie is my hobby. I like to go out to the store/order online...to buy my movies.

I can download movies today for free if I want to, but I don't since I hate it.

If they decide to offer download, then the studio will see a decline in their sales figure.

I find those Pay Per View funny...never ever going to pay those services.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Kristin Simard

And imagine information about your viewing habits, when, from where, what and how often you watch, which scenes you watch over and over again...etc. all being monitored and tracked by a corporation who does God-knows-what with that information.

- not for me, thank you

Do you still write checks too instead of Debit cards?

There are a lot more important places that Big Brother has already poked his nose in!!

[Kayne314]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

It hasn't had in impact because they only offer the most recent titles.

Imagine now, having access to ALL the movies Netflix offers, but now I can watch instantly!!

Yes, it is a maturing process. I suspect it won't even be HD at first , but they are laying down a solid map. LG is just a pawn for netflix, if they show that this is even remotley successful, I see it being integrated into the ps3.

As I said, anything feasible will be probably 10 years off. They'll start with SD yes. They will be able to show off their SD content and convenience in about 3 to 5 years time. By that time Blu-Ray will be the dominant movie choice for consumers. Consumers will be comparing the new service with that technology.

SD < HD Everyone will be able to see that. So it will struggle to gain acceptance in an increasingly HD world. SD will be fine for portable media, but not home theater. In another 3 to 5 years they'll be ready to go full bore with HD content... IF they survive their stint into SD.

By that time there may be an even better alternative to Blu-Ray. (3D Movies?)

Bottom Line, they should have started this 5 years ago, to even have a chance of catching the runaway train that is Blu-Ray. IF they are talking about a pure download like Itunes, then they have a GIGANTIC hurdle to overcome. 5 Mb stereo sound Verses 50 Gb 7.1ch Surround + 1080p Video. I can't even do the math at the ratio of change they'll have to leap to.

SD is their Achilles heel. When they are ready to show off their technology, HD will be dominant. When they are ready to go HD, consumers may have lost interest.

[Grisle]

Originally Posted by Bolaar

BUY BUY BUY...Why?
When my hard disk die.
It will make me cry,
as I will have to re-buy.

This made me laugh...nice little poem.

[Kristin Simard]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Do you still write checks too instead of Debit cards?

There are a lot more important places that Big Brother has already poked his nose in!!

There is something a little more invasive about monitoring DLs. With credit and debit cards you have a choice (cash, check, etc.) and unless you order online, you are already out in the public. In any case, it's by choice. If a DL is your only option, you have no choice.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Kayne314

As I said, anything feasible will be probably 10 years off. They'll start with SD yes. They will be able to show off their SD content and convenience in about 3 to 5 years time. By that time Blu-Ray will be the dominant movie choice for consumers. Consumers will be comparing the new service with that technology.

SD < HD Everyone will be able to see that. So it will struggle to gain acceptance in an increasingly HD world. SD will be fine for portable media, but not home theater. In another 3 to 5 years they'll be ready to go full bore with HD content... IF they survive their stint into SD.

By that time there may be an even better alternative to Blu-Ray. (3D Movies?)

Bottom Line, they should have started this 5 years ago, to even have a chance of catching the runaway train that is Blu-Ray. IF they are talking about a pure download like Itunes, then they have a GIGANTIC hurdle to overcome. 5 Mb stereo sound Verses 50 Gb 7.1ch Surround + 1080p Video. I can't even do the math at the ratio of change they'll have to leap to.

SD is their Achilles heel. When they are ready to show off their technology, HD will be dominant. When they are ready to go HD, consumers may have lost interest.

DUDE!! Have you read the news today? Google Netlfix on news. SD content from Netflix on boxes is 6 months away. They already do this on the pc now. Amazon unbox does it as well. I used my TIVO to dowload Battlestar Gallactica episodes in less then a half hour and the quality was that of DVD. I'm not sure if it was DD, cause it was on my bedroom tv, but this is already going on now.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by camper

That's because most people who think it's the wave of the future, usually don't know what they're talking about. You can't squeeze and elephant down a toilet, no matter how much you want to, or how hard you try. And if do build a big enough toilet to accomodate said elephant, if the sewage line can't accomodate it then it doesn't friggin matter.

~Camper

+1

People forget just how slow the internet really is. And im talking about "high speed" internet. Now what about people with dialup, or *gasp* no internet?

[camper]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

I can't imagine how early adopters such as yourselve's can be so narrow minded?

10 yrs ago we were still buying floppy's and using dial up. Today we have 100gig disc's and T1 lines and faster. WHy is it so impossible to imagine digital downloads for movies with the fast pace technology is moving at today???

It's not being narrow minded, it's looking at the current architecture and infrastructure required to support it and having a realistic expectation as to what is capable and when.

I will tell you right now, a dedicated T1 will not be enough speed for this to make it feasible. DSL cannot accomodate this. Cable modem service cannot accomodate this. Satellite cannot accomodate this. Not right now, because what is required in order to make it happen the way that it's being proposed will take a massive amount of money, time, and labor to make happen. The only service that is close to providing the bandwidth to the home to make this reasonably feasible is FIOS (Fiber Optic which is close to a T3), and Verizon will not continue to eat the expense to get it out there like they are now. Not to mention the monthly service charges are very high, and the backend expenses would be astronomical to anyone who wants to provide content.

Yes, there is some video on demand that is available right now on cable and satellite, but it is a limited selection. To make a sizeable catalog of films available to the public (in High Definition, no less) that will be strong enough to compete with even standard DVD's selection will take a VERY long time to do and will cost in the billions. We're at least 15 years away from this, despite how fast technology is moving. Hence the analogy of the elephant and the toilet, you might make the surface able accomodate, but if the infrastructure cannot support it then it will not work.

If you're sitting at your computer and on a cable modem, and you are impressed with your blinding speed you're in for a rude awakening once all these downloadable pipe-dreams begin to take hold. There is little demand on most cable networks right now, but bring in voice, data, and TV over that narrow pathway then you will find that it simply cannot accomodate.

From a futurist standpoint, its a clever idea worth pursuing but when you look at what is required in order to make it happen, you find that it is not as simple as you might think.

At a minimum, it will take 5 years for downloadable films to take hold, as 'high speed' access is either DSL which is limited by phone lines, or cable modem service which is a shared connection which suffers high speed degredation when more users are connected or if someone is hogging the pipe.

We're moving towards HD content on TV, almost every tv sold is HD, more and more HD channels are being introduced (and when satellite space opens, carriers will try and bring them on) and the consumer is going to demand more and more as time goes on.

High Def has been introduced, and it is the new bar. Companies should be working to go above that bar, not struggling to provide content at a level equal to what we have now but delivered over the 'net.

To put it in perspective, go to a major metropolitan city on Friday at rush hour, and fit in 10,000 more cars on the already congested highway. That is what main-stream digital downloading is up against.

Should they try to get it to work? Absolutely. Will it replace Blu Ray or HD DVD (or even standard DVD)? Nope. It can't, the elephant is too big to squeeze in the toilet.

~Camper

[Kayne314]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

DUDE!! Have you read the news today? Google Netlfix on news. SD content from Netflix on boxes is 6 months away. They already do this on the pc now. Amazon unbox does it as well. I used my TIVO to dowload Battlestar Gallactica episodes in less then a half hour and the quality was that of DVD. I'm not sure if it was DD, cause it was on my bedroom tv, but this is already going on now.

Every damn technology is always 6 months away. I'll believe it when I see it. I beleive 3 - 5 years is a reasonable assumption based on a system that is convenient and accessable to everyone that can catch on like Itunes. It needs to be ready for MASS adoption. ( 3 to 5 Years just to work out the bugs.)

I can assure you my experience with comparing VOD or downloaded content on my TV, the DVD video is superior, definitely in the sound department. If Amazon is having success with the Unbox or not, I'd be curious to know. How long does the download take? What does it look like? ect...

Either way, by the time it is ready for mass adoption, HD will be the dominant format to compete with. And SD content cannot compete with High Definition when the consumer sees the difference.

[gearyt]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

I can't imagine how early adopters such as yourselve's can be so narrow minded?

10 yrs ago we were still buying floppy's and using dial up. Today we have 100gig disc's and T1 lines and faster. WHy is it so impossible to imagine digital downloads for movies with the fast pace technology is moving at today???

Ahhhh the truth cometh..

Yes 10 years ago.... so maybe 10 years from now. Blu-Ray for 10 years?? ok !, then on to the next step.. BTW. do YOU have a T1 at your home, do your neighbors...?

It took over 10 years to get out of 56K leased lines to what we have today DSL, cable