When will Blu-ray take over? - Blu-ray Forum

blu-ray fan002 · 01-24-2008, 01:17 AM

When will Blu-ray take over the DVD? I know Blu-ray is still new but when should people start transferring from DVD to Blu-ray?

bkbluray · 01-24-2008, 01:34 AM

It will take a while. I predict that sales should pick up as more and more people watch Blu-rays for the first time. That's all it took for me... I saw the display at Best Buy, and I instantly wanted a Sony XBR TV and a Blu-ray player. I ended up with a 720p Samsung and a PS3, and couldn't be happier.

#1 Rush fan · 01-24-2008, 01:51 AM

I'm going to guess 5 years. That may seem like a along time, but keep in mind that DVD is the "hot" thing with general public and in 5 years time, many millions of people will have upgraded and got an HDTV. Although HDTV is really selling well, a lot of people still have older sets and will continue to have them for years...the extra cost of Blu-ray players and movies is basically a waste without an HDTV.

Anthony P · 01-24-2008, 02:35 AM

I think people should start already

but when will BD be around 50%? my guess is taht it could be by some point in 2010.

Minimejer05 · 01-24-2008, 02:36 AM

Hopefully within 5 to 7 years.

BluBee · 01-24-2008, 03:16 AM

I agree with Anthony P: two years and change until Blu-ray starts out-selling DVD. If things break right in 2008, the holiday buying season will be huge for Blu-ray, and critical mass will really be rolling in 2009. Most people will come to see DVD as an archaic format. Sometime in 2010, we should have crossover (more Blu-ray disc sales than DVD sales). Of course, all this is predicated on Blu-ray players for $150 or less 18 months from now, good HDTVs for under $400, and a definitive end to the format war (which should come in 2008).

york weir · 01-24-2008, 12:37 PM

The first step would be to get HDTV in an overwhelming percentage of homes. The second step is getting HD broadcasting to those same homes. At that point there stands a chance for Blu-ray to overtake DVD.

It's taken 10 years to get to roughly 30% of homes. The cutoff of analog in 2009 will spur some sales no doubt but I think it will be a while before HDTV sets and broadcasting is above 75%.

Barnum · 01-24-2008, 01:17 PM

I think the first thing that needs to happen is disk prices need to come down. Walmart is getting closer to what the average person will pay but not close enough. Walmart sells tons of 5 dollar DVDs and that is for a reason. People tend to be cheap about movies. I know several people that will not jump on board because of prices. Like I said, people want cheap and until they get it high def disks remain a niche market.

AllenA · 01-24-2008, 01:22 PM

I think that once the price falls some for the movies, it'll really serve to help the format. A lot of people, myself included, can't really afford Blu-Ray yet. Now to be fair when there was the Christmas time sale on the Sony BDP-S300 I caved in and got myself one, however I've only got a couple movies for it. I just don't have the cash (I'm a student, so not exactly rolling in money) for the movies, so I still find myself buying a lot of regular DVD's.

Basic point, give it a few years for the price to come down to what people pay for DVD's, and Blu-Ray will take over.

01-24-2008, 01:51 AM	#3
#1 Rush fan Member Member since:Jan 2008 Location:Philadelphia	My 2 cents I'm going to guess 5 years. That may seem like a along time, but keep in mind that DVD is the "hot" thing with general public and in 5 years time, many millions of people will have upgraded and got an HDTV. Although HDTV is really selling well, a lot of people still have older sets and will continue to have them for years...the extra cost of Blu-ray players and movies is basically a waste without an HDTV.

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01-24-2008, 01:17 AM	#1
blu-ray fan002 Active Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Texas	When will Blu-ray take over? When will Blu-ray take over the DVD? I know Blu-ray is still new but when should people start transferring from DVD to Blu-ray?

01-24-2008, 01:34 AM	#2
bkbluray Blu-ray Guru Member since:Jun 2007 Location:MN Home Theater Gallery:57 Blu-ray collection:185 Blu-ray reviews:25	It will take a while. I predict that sales should pick up as more and more people watch Blu-rays for the first time. That's all it took for me... I saw the display at Best Buy, and I instantly wanted a Sony XBR TV and a Blu-ray player. I ended up with a 720p Samsung and a PS3, and couldn't be happier.

01-24-2008, 02:35 AM	#4
Anthony P Blu-ray Count Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Montreal, Canada	I think people should start already but when will BD be around 50%? my guess is taht it could be by some point in 2010.

01-24-2008, 02:36 AM	#5
Minimejer05 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Dec 2007 Location:Minnesota Home Theater Gallery:14 4K collection:532 Blu-ray collection:1995 Blu-ray reviews:28 Trading Score:6	Hopefully within 5 to 7 years.

01-24-2008, 03:16 AM	#6
BluBee Member Member since:Jan 2008 Blu-ray collection:34	I agree with Anthony P: two years and change until Blu-ray starts out-selling DVD. If things break right in 2008, the holiday buying season will be huge for Blu-ray, and critical mass will really be rolling in 2009. Most people will come to see DVD as an archaic format. Sometime in 2010, we should have crossover (more Blu-ray disc sales than DVD sales). Of course, all this is predicated on Blu-ray players for $150 or less 18 months from now, good HDTVs for under $400, and a definitive end to the format war (which should come in 2008).

01-24-2008, 12:37 PM	#7
york weir Special Member Member since:Nov 2007	The first step would be to get HDTV in an overwhelming percentage of homes. The second step is getting HD broadcasting to those same homes. At that point there stands a chance for Blu-ray to overtake DVD. It's taken 10 years to get to roughly 30% of homes. The cutoff of analog in 2009 will spur some sales no doubt but I think it will be a while before HDTV sets and broadcasting is above 75%.

01-24-2008, 01:17 PM	#8
Barnum Senior Member Member since:Nov 2007 Trading Score:3	I think the first thing that needs to happen is disk prices need to come down. Walmart is getting closer to what the average person will pay but not close enough. Walmart sells tons of 5 dollar DVDs and that is for a reason. People tend to be cheap about movies. I know several people that will not jump on board because of prices. Like I said, people want cheap and until they get it high def disks remain a niche market.

01-24-2008, 01:22 PM	#9
AllenA Junior Member Member since:Dec 2007	I think that once the price falls some for the movies, it'll really serve to help the format. A lot of people, myself included, can't really afford Blu-Ray yet. Now to be fair when there was the Christmas time sale on the Sony BDP-S300 I caved in and got myself one, however I've only got a couple movies for it. I just don't have the cash (I'm a student, so not exactly rolling in money) for the movies, so I still find myself buying a lot of regular DVD's. Basic point, give it a few years for the price to come down to what people pay for DVD's, and Blu-Ray will take over.

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