This was a great read. It's so good, I posted the whole thing here, but I encourage everyone to visit the site whenever they get a chance. Bill's been around since the inception of DVD and is pretty respected in the industry...
Quote:
Finally today, I'm tickled to learn that I'm not the only media analyst that's earned the ire of a select group of... shall we say, passionate?... early adopters on the Net. CNet executive editor David Carnoy has apparently been flamed too by HD-DVD enthusiasts online for daring to suggest that HD-DVD may not have a rosy future. You can read his amusing editorial reaction here.
You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.
Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.
I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - all those things I just mentioned above?
As I said earlier, I love both formats. But I just don't see any circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.
Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple.
I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. I think Stephen Colbert said it best: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy."
For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.
It was nice to see this on TDB, but as a long time reader of that site, and as someone, until very recently, was respectful of Bill Hunt, I still have a few problems.
1. The Digital Bits contains no blu-ray reviews whatsoever, but is loaded down with hd-dud reviews - witness yesterday's update with 10 new hd-dud reviews, some of which were available on blu-ray.
2. The old "I really love both formats and hate this format war" stance, which is complete bs. Stat for stat, in catergory after catergory, blu-ray is superior - both on paper and in action. The Digital Bits usually supports superior technology... but won't come out and say it in this case. Which, as a former movie reviewer myself, leads me to believe he doesn't want to upset Universal and stop that flow of free review copies. He, almost grudgingly, gets behind blu-ray, but only because it's got more studio support and is in the ps3 - not because it is the better technology.
3. The comments about how he doesn't like how Sony's arrogance and how they went around the dvd forum. Again, this is another BD hater type of comment... other studios and manufacturers are tied to the dvd forum and make money from both DVD and hd-dud. Sony has the right, with a new technology, to sidestep that. And the studios signed on because of BD is the superior of the two proposed formats. I'm sure if HD-DUD was better, then it would have more support. So these accusations always rub me the wrong way.
Ultimately, I'm tired of the majority of respectable sites like TDB still trying to be so polictically correct and not upset the applecart by actually coming out and saying "gee, this one is better than the other". It's hamfisted to say that BD is superior only because of more support and because it's in the ps3 and therefore selling more. For once, get some balls and say the truth... they are not as good as one another... one is clearly superior to the other! BD is the winner across the board. And if more people had the balls to come out and tell the truth, then the decision for the undecided consumer would have helped to have been made, and the format war would be hastened to an end...
Last edited by Jack Torrance; 02-15-2007 at 04:26 AM.
I think this one line summarises how many BD supporters feel...
Agreed. HD-DVD Wins, the best they can pray for is a LD Style Niche which is laughed at at best.
Blu-Ray wins, with 50+ million BD players in homes just via the PS3 in 3-4 years, has the best chance of taking over DVD or at least becoming mainstream enough to be a very good alternative for studios for revenue and for home theater enthusiasts alike. It is sad how far HD-DVD owners will fight for a format thats destined to end up at a swap meet sale.
Agreed. HD-DVD Wins, the best they can pray for is a LD Style Niche which is laughed at at best.
I'm sure that's what they would like, but when LD was around it was because the video and audio was so much better than VHS. At best HD-DVD can hold it's own with Blu-ray at worst falls behind Blu-ray. LD vanished very quickly when DVD arrived there is only one place for it to hide.
Games - nope
Computer Backup - nope
Movies - nope
Place of honour at a fanboy convention - YEAH
Finally today, I'm tickled to learn that I'm not the only media analyst that's earned the ire of a select group of... shall we say, passionate?... early adopters on the Net. CNet executive editor David Carnoy has apparently been flamed too by HD-DVD enthusiasts online for daring to suggest that HD-DVD may not have a rosy future. You can read his amusing editorial reaction here.
You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.
Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.
I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - namely, ALL those things I just mentioned above? Frankly, the best sales pitch the HD-DVD camp seems to be able to make right now is: "Hey, we've got DVD right in the name! Plus cheap off-brand players are on the way! And porn!" I guess I have to be the guy who states the obvious, but doesn't that seem a little odd to anyone?
The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.
I've also heard people cite universal players as the answer to having two formats. But the problem with universal players is that while they make life easier for early adopters, they do nothing to clear up the mass consumer (or mainstream media) perception of a format war, so those folks still remain on the sidelines. In addition to that, universal players tend to cost more, which again doesn't affect early adopters that much but is one more strike against adoption by consumers at large, who are price sensitive.
As for porn... I've addressed that issue in the past, and you saw the Newsweek story posted above. Unlike the situation back in the days of VHS versus Betamax, cheap porn is already available everywhere on DVD and online. Porn is not going to decide this format war.
As I've said before, I like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc. They're both great - they both deliver the goods. But there just isn't room for TWO great formats. And at this point, I just don't see any likely circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.
Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. I'm tired of talking to reps for studios that are sitting on the fence or straddling both formats, who gamely spout the diplomatic company line about how great both formats are on the record, but off the record tell you how sick they all are of the situation and how much more hassle and headache it's caused them having to support THREE formats (including standard DVD). And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple. They don't want to have to worry about having to buy the red box, or the blue box... or even the red AND blue box.
I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. All you enthusiasts that have trenched in to support your particular format of choice come hell or high water had better enjoy the movies you're getting now, because if both formats fizzle out, forget about ever getting deep catalog, or older classics that cost money to restore for HD - money that would have come from software sales that aren't happening because too many people stubbornly stuck to their guns and the format war dragged out until nobody cared anymore. I think Stephen Colbert said it best when predicting the future of the HD format war: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy." There could be a lot more "truthiness" in that statement than some want to believe.
For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.
For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.
Oh, see the first paragraph where Bill refers to Dave Carnroy of CNET and his response to this madness?
It was nice to see this on TDB, but as a long time reader of that site, and as someone, until very recently, was respectful of Bill Hunt, I still have a few problems.
1. The Digital Bits contains no blu-ray reviews whatsoever, but is loaded down with hd-dud reviews - witness yesterday's update with 10 new hd-dud reviews, some of which were available on blu-ray.
2. The old "I really love both formats and hate this format war" stance, which is complete bs. Stat for stat, in catergory after catergory, blu-ray is superior - both on paper and in action. The Digital Bits usually supports superior technology... but won't come out and say it in this case. Which, as a former movie reviewer myself, leads me to believe he doesn't want to upset Universal and stop that flow of free review copies. He, almost grudgingly, gets behind blu-ray, but only because it's got more studio support and is in the ps3 - not because it is the better technology.
3. The comments about how he doesn't like how Sony's arrogance and how they went around the dvd forum. Again, this is another BD hater type of comment... other studios and manufacturers are tied to the dvd forum and make money from both DVD and hd-dud. Sony has the right, with a new technology, to sidestep that. And the studios signed on because of BD is the superior of the two proposed formats. I'm sure if HD-DUD was better, then it would have more support. So these accusations always rub me the wrong way.
Ultimately, I'm tired of the majority of respectable sites like TDB still trying to be so polictically correct and not upset the applecart by actually coming out and saying "gee, this one is better than the other". It's hamfisted to say that BD is superior only because of more support and because it's in the ps3 and therefore selling more. For once, get some balls and say the truth... they are not as good as one another... one is clearly superior to the other! BD is the winner across the board. And if more people had the balls to come out and tell the truth, then the decision for the undecided consumer would have helped to have been made, and the format war would be hastened to an end...
I think this has been debunked up down and sideways: PQ depends on the codec and quality of the transfer, etc. and not which optical disk it was on.
That isn't completely decided yet. How can anyone say for sure that a given VC-1 title wouldn't be improved if it was encoded with peak bitrates beyond HD DVD's capability?
We haven't been given a chance to see yet, so we don't know. Warner only has a porting utility for VC-1. They don't have a BD-specific VC-1 encoder. That is, Warner encodes for HD DVD and then uses a Microsoft supplied utility to fix up the stream for BD (e.g. remove the interlace flags).
It's probably safe to say that average bitrates are completely sufficient for VC-1 on either format. But, I would need some proof that every complicated scene can be rendered equally well with peaks below 28Mbps (30.54Mbps - audio) or less versus having up to 40Mbps.
And, then there is how much effort is required to get the scene working at below 28Mbps, versus being able to throw some bits at it without any concern.
The dirty little secret of HD DVD is that it is VERY expensive to encode for. And there are lots of complaints about the current encoders, but nobody can talk about it in public because Microsoft supplies the encoder and demands an NDA be signed.
Gary
Last edited by dialog_gvf; 02-15-2007 at 06:48 PM.
It was nice to see this on TDB, but as a long time reader of that site, and as someone, until very recently, was respectful of Bill Hunt, I still have a few problems.
1. The Digital Bits contains no blu-ray reviews whatsoever, but is loaded down with hd-dud reviews - witness yesterday's update with 10 new hd-dud reviews, some of which were available on blu-ray.
2. The old "I really love both formats and hate this format war" stance, which is complete bs. Stat for stat, in catergory after catergory, blu-ray is superior - both on paper and in action. The Digital Bits usually supports superior technology... but won't come out and say it in this case. Which, as a former movie reviewer myself, leads me to believe he doesn't want to upset Universal and stop that flow of free review copies. He, almost grudgingly, gets behind blu-ray, but only because it's got more studio support and is in the ps3 - not because it is the better technology.
3. The comments about how he doesn't like how Sony's arrogance and how they went around the dvd forum. Again, this is another BD hater type of comment... other studios and manufacturers are tied to the dvd forum and make money from both DVD and hd-dud. Sony has the right, with a new technology, to sidestep that. And the studios signed on because of BD is the superior of the two proposed formats. I'm sure if HD-DUD was better, then it would have more support. So these accusations always rub me the wrong way.
Ultimately, I'm tired of the majority of respectable sites like TDB still trying to be so polictically correct and not upset the applecart by actually coming out and saying "gee, this one is better than the other". It's hamfisted to say that BD is superior only because of more support and because it's in the ps3 and therefore selling more. For once, get some balls and say the truth... they are not as good as one another... one is clearly superior to the other! BD is the winner across the board. And if more people had the balls to come out and tell the truth, then the decision for the undecided consumer would have helped to have been made, and the format war would be hastened to an end...
I feel ya buddy. As IMO, I see the better durability of Blu-ray discs a HUGE draw and advantage along with better and more trusted CE brands behind it, as well as the more support it gets from the IT brands, the greater capacity reality and potential, and the greater throughput of data. All these, besides the studio advantage are what makes Blu-ray simply better.
1. The Digital Bits contains no blu-ray reviews whatsoever, but is loaded down with hd-dud reviews - witness yesterday's update with 10 new hd-dud reviews, some of which were available on blu-ray.
Like all sites with multiple contributors, there will be differing politics. Bill Hunt would be rather a hypocrite if he banned HD DVD reviews, right? And it looks like Barrie Maxwell is an HD DVD fanboy.
I would be interesting to see the mail between those too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Torrance
2. The old "I really love both formats and hate this format war" stance, which is complete bs. Stat for stat, in catergory after catergory, blu-ray is superior - both on paper and in action. The Digital Bits usually supports superior technology... but won't come out and say it in this case. Which, as a former movie reviewer myself, leads me to believe he doesn't want to upset Universal and stop that flow of free review copies. He, almost grudgingly, gets behind blu-ray, but only because it's got more studio support and is in the ps3 - not because it is the better technology.
In defense, look at the crap Bill Hunt has to put up with at it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Torrance
3. The comments about how he doesn't like how Sony's arrogance and how they went around the dvd forum. Again, this is another BD hater type of comment... other studios and manufacturers are tied to the dvd forum and make money from both DVD and hd-dud. Sony has the right, with a new technology, to sidestep that. And the studios signed on because of BD is the superior of the two proposed formats. I'm sure if HD-DUD was better, then it would have more support. So these accusations always rub me the wrong way.
Some people liked the DVD Forum as an example of a more open method to handle these formats. But, unfortunately Toshiba decided it had to own another generation and got the votes behind it to make putting BD before the DVD Forum a waste.
I see know obvious evidence that the BDA was the result of only Sony. Matsushita and Philips were big on it too. Basically, the DVD+R/RW group continued into another form.
But as for arrogance. Arrogance is demanding that one trade organization have the power to decide what products the consumer will see. Arrogance is the Microsoft/Toshiba Model-HD DVD: You can have any player and any codecs as long as it is Toshiba + VC-1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Torrance
Ultimately, I'm tired of the majority of respectable sites like TDB still trying to be so polictically correct and not upset the applecart by actually coming out and saying "gee, this one is better than the other". It's hamfisted to say that BD is superior only because of more support and because it's in the ps3 and therefore selling more. For once, get some balls and say the truth... they are not as good as one another... one is clearly superior to the other! BD is the winner across the board. And if more people had the balls to come out and tell the truth, then the decision for the undecided consumer would have helped to have been made, and the format war would be hastened to an end...
As I said, Bill has had a lot of slander and libel thrown his way as it is. Goodness knows what would happen if he fully spoke his mind.
Would peace be possible even in his own home (the TDB site)?
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Digital Bits: HD-DVD Fanboy Smackdown
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