Nielsen Prediction Thread for 08.02.08 (due Wednesday 06.02.08) - Blu-ray Forum

Winn · 02-01-2008, 06:36 PM

January is behind us and February is here. It brings with it an increase in the number of new releases. However, HD DVD continues its slow start with one title, Strauss: Die Fledermaus, from Opus Arte. It will still be a few weeks before HD DVD gets its next big title.

Blu-ray has a larger lineup this week. They get their timed exclusive on Invation from Warner this week (though some stores are breaking the street date on the HD DVD). Sony has a trio of titles the first season of the Damages TV show, Daddy Day Care and Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Wait, Life of Brian is out? Ok, gotta hurry up so I can head to the store.

There are also three neutral titles this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 8th will cover sales from January 28th-February 3rd, inclusive.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/08/2008

Code:

NAME                BD:HD
papi4baby           90:10
jason_grumpy        90:10
The Don             89:11
Evashun             89:11
Dalese              88:12
cabezon1184         88:12
desmond             88:12
Iceman713713        88:12
Living Near Shamu   88:12
Sporty              88:12
stockstar1138       88:12
cartman781          88:12
WriteSimply         88:12
blujacket           87:13
GregBlu5            87:13
gand41f             87:13
gre8t1              87:13
Grisle              87:13
cvm                 87:13
Fozziwig            86:14
tiger roach         86:14
fomoco04            86:14
Titan               86:14
Jim L               86:14
Sonar5              86:14
blurayboy           86:14
RickD               86:14
Carbon_Le           86:14
Whytewash           86:14
Xcom_Cheetah        86:14
TheRealBob          85:15
gearyt              85:15
mhussung            85:15
Zotar               85:15
jtconnolly          85:15
UTVOL06             85:15
Jim Morrison        85:15
GarettP             85:15
josurr              85:15
Y3k Bug             85:15
sj001               85:15
atrofast            85:15
Rike255             85:15
Storm               85:15
bkbluray            85:15
Craig Ruchman       85:15
Dew                 85:15
The Lurker          85:15
bbg                 85:15
The Big Blue        84:16
CGYBLU              84:16
Mastrodisastro      84:16
jimsch42            84:16
woldymoldy          84:16
patrick99           84:16
whoelse             84:16
Goodguy818          84:16
waled               84:16
LynxFX              84:16
Lou-Cipher          84:16
bajor27             84:16
JPEncarnac          84:16
NexusFX             84:16
Slapper             84:16
jknuss01            84:16
marzetta7           84:16
Ops2p               84:16
Uxi                 84:16
MarekM              83:17
Elandyll            83:17
klac                83:17
AnthonyP            83:17
richterbon23        83:17
TheWave             83:17
ottscay             83:17
Glow007             83:17
jkwest              83:17
kolasi              83:17
Nathan P            83:17
Razzy               83:17
darkwing            83:17
bassbone57          83:17
Mr_Bester           83:17
BillCable           82:18
jsb hburg           82:18
blindcat87          82:18
kjacobs03           82:18
goodstuff           82:18
AVBill              82:18
Kairav              82:18
DetroitSportsFan    82:18
FFObsessed          82:18
Irishwiseguy2006    82:18
Rup_Muk             82:18
Jackietreehorn      82:18
DJeffries           81:19
unreal1080p         81:19
CptGreedle          81:19
Sonny               81:19
LorSofPerfect?      81:19
Clark Kent          81:19
Denzelio            81:19
digibob             81:19
subgun              81:19
Pellaeon            81:19
Mote                81:19
cory                81:19
jubaiweaponx        81:19
mainman             81:19
Zazou               81:19
dobyblue            80:20
horseflesh          80:20
bluskies            80:20
Ispoke              80:20
shug7272            80:20
BlueNeon            80:20
tuku                80:20
zmadMonk            80:20
Aygie               80:20
IfeelBlu            80:20
grovey              80:20
JasonR              80:20
Mikeesracing        80:20
Neo65               80:20
JAGUAR1977          79:21
Winn                79:21
SGRSBSKIER          79:21
Carmien             79:21
HDPerfection        79:21
reider              78:22
glenn22             78:22
york weir           78:22
mystiksuicide       78:22
Blubaru             78:22
darkprime           78:22
xmositox            77:23
JadedRaverLA        77:23
BluWave             76:24
davidPS3            75:25
w tanoto            75:25
talbers23           75:25
Lee Christie        74:26
Imakida             74:26
bageleaterkkjji     72:28
Scrapanatchi        69:31

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

HD DVD
Strauss: Die Fledermaus (Opus Arte)
King of California (First Look)
Garden (Warner Music Group)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square

Blu-ray
Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)
Damages: The Complete First Season (Sony)
Justin Timberlake: Live at Madison Square Garden (Sony BMG)
Invasion (Warner)
King of California (First Look)
Garden (Warner Music Group)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square

Irishwiseguy2006 · 02-01-2008, 06:38 PM

82:18

Winn · 02-01-2008, 06:38 PM

Our perfect picks:

JAGUAR1977
Imakida
Kairav
JadedRaverLA
jknuss01
Rup_Muk

Nielsen contest results for 02/01/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 82:18

Code:

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
JadedRaverLA        82:18          1         0.00
jknuss01            82:18          1         0.00
Rup_Muk             82:18          1         0.00
mystiksuicide       84:16          2         1.00
ottscay             84:16          2         1.00
sj001               84:16          2         1.00
Kairav              82:18          2         1.00
jkwest              83:17          1         1.00
JPEncarnac          83:17          1         1.00
Mote                83:17          1         1.00
Aygie               81:19          1         1.00
bajor27             81:19          1         1.00
cobwebb             81:19          1         1.00
DetroitSportsFan    81:19          1         1.00
FFObsessed          81:19          1         1.00
Firestreak          81:19          1         1.00
gandley             81:19          1         1.00
Glow007             81:19          1         1.00
Irishwiseguy2006    81:19          1         1.00
kolasi              81:19          1         1.00
Nathan P            81:19          1         1.00
NexusFX             81:19          1         1.00
Razzy               81:19          1         1.00
Slapper             81:19          1         1.00
SGRSBSKIER          84:16          2         1.50
Pellaeon            83:17          2         1.50
LorSofPerfect?      85:15          2         2.00
quexos              81:19          2         2.00
BlueNeon            80:20          2         2.00
4saken              84:16          1         2.00
areofast            84:16          1         2.00
bageleaterkkjji     84:16          1         2.00
BluWave             84:16          1         2.00
cabezon1184         84:16          1         2.00
Lou-Cipher          84:16          1         2.00
m_tyson             84:16          1         2.00
subgun              84:16          1         2.00
talbers23           84:16          1         2.00
wakeboredb          84:16          1         2.00
Clark Kent          80:20          1         2.00
Denzelio            80:20          1         2.00
digibob             80:20          1         2.00
josurr              80:20          1         2.00
merrick97           80:20          1         2.00
tuku                80:20          1         2.00
Y3k Bug             80:20          1         2.00
TheWave             84:16          2         2.50
Imakida             82:18          2         2.50
Elandyll            87:13          2         3.00
gand41f             87:13          2         3.00
GarettP             87:13          2         3.00
patrick99           85:15          2         3.00
shug7272            85:15          2         3.00
whoelse             85:15          2         3.00
klac                84:16          2         3.00
fomoco04            81:19          2         3.00
AnthonyP            85:15          1         3.00
Blu-Ray Buckeye     85:15          1         3.00
goodstuff           85:15          1         3.00
gre8t1              85:15          1         3.00
waled               85:15          1         3.00
fattyslimslim       79:21          1         3.00
Goodguy818          79:21          1         3.00
mressler12          79:21          1         3.00
richterbon23        79:21          1         3.00
unreal1080p         88:12          2         3.50
Winn                88:12          2         3.50
Jim Morrison        86:14          2         3.50
york weir           78:22          2         3.50
HeavyHitter         87:13          2         4.00
Zotar               86:14          2         4.00
Azumi               86:14          1         4.00
Dalese              86:14          1         4.00
DJeffries           86:14          1         4.00
gordon cunningham   86:14          1         4.00
Ispoke              86:14          1         4.00
jimsch42            86:14          1         4.00
jtconnolly          86:14          1         4.00
kjacobs03           86:14          1         4.00
Luis_A51            86:14          1         4.00
spicynacho          86:14          1         4.00
UTVOL06             86:14          1         4.00
woldymoldy          86:14          1         4.00
xmositox            86:14          1         4.00
mhussung            87:13          2         4.50
UlicBelouve         87:13          2         4.50
blindcat87          86:14          2         4.50
JAGUAR1977          82:18          2         4.50
tiger roach         78:22          2         4.50
AranhaHunter        75:25          2         4.50
MarekM              88:12          2         5.00
papi4baby           86:14          2         5.00
Petra               84:16          2         5.00
w tanoto            80:20          2         5.00
GregBlu5            87:13          1         5.00
MATTYBLU2           87:13          1         5.00
Pestilence          87:13          1         5.00
Rovic               87:13          1         5.00
SpaceDog            87:13          1         5.00
Mastrodisastro      77:23          1         5.00
nokia6250tank       77:23          1         5.00
Fozziwig            88:12          2         5.50
blujacket           88:12          1         6.00
BluMonster          88:12          1         6.00
BluStar88           88:12          1         6.00
CGYBLU              88:12          1         6.00
gearyt              88:12          1         6.00
SolidBlu            88:12          1         6.00
Tizflizz            88:12          1         6.00
venusiansky         88:12          1         6.00
krinkle             76:24          1         6.00
TheRealBob          89:11          2         6.50
dobyblue            89:11          1         7.00
The Big Blue        89:11          1         7.00
aristotles          84:16          2         7.50
eat_me_cool         90:10          1         8.00
hharrizons          90:10          1         8.00
Weez_Dawg           90:10          1         8.00
GTP                 91:9           1         9.00
jadedeath           91:9           1         9.00
Lee Christie        99:1           2         9.50
PrinceLH            69:31          2         9.50
Amel                99:1           1        17.00
trublu707           99:1           1        17.00

Weekly Stats

Code:

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Jim Morrison · 02-01-2008, 06:38 PM

85:15

Winn · 02-01-2008, 06:39 PM

You guys are too bloody quick.

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

RickD · 02-01-2008, 06:39 PM

I am thinking 86:14

Rick

GregBlu5 · 02-01-2008, 06:42 PM

I'm backing this (live) horse again: 87-13.

patrick99 · 02-01-2008, 06:43 PM