Nielsen Prediction Thread for 04.04.08 (due Wednesday 02.04.08)

[Winn]

HD DVD's wind down is in full swing as the pickings get increasingly slim. There are no major studio releases at all this week as only opus Arte and Vanguard have titles out.

Blu Ray fairs better with Bonnie and Clyde from the Brothers Warner.

The titles, however, are not the big news of the week. The big news is that Best Buy has completely stopped selling HD DVD.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on April 4th will cover sales from March 24th-March 30th, inclusive.


HD DVD
The Lowlife: Director's Cut (Vanguard Cinema)
Disco Pigs (Vanguard Cinema)
Verdi: Il Trovatore (Opus Arte)

Blu-ray
HDScape: Blu-Ray Sampler (DVD International)
Steep (Sony)
Bonnie & Clyde (Warner)
Naked Beneath the Water (Phoenix Group)
Mendelssohn: A Midsummer Night's Dream (Opus Arte)

[Winn]

Nielsen contest results for 03/28/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 88:12

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
mystiksuicide       83:17          7         3.86
jwbbud              84:16          1         4.00
SGRSBSKIER          86:14         10         4.20
subgun              87:13          9         4.67
Squozen             79:21          3         4.67
grovey              85:15          8         4.75
pokerface           85:15          5         4.80
digibob             85:15          8         4.88
Winn                83:17         10         5.10
BluWave             83:17          9         5.11
FFObsessed          81:19          8         5.13
Slapper             90:10          9         5.44
unreal1080p         88:12         10         5.50
patrick99           81:19         10         5.60
Rup_Muk             82:18          9         5.78
Pellaeon            80:20         10         5.80
Blu-raider          77:23          5         6.00
horseflesh          82:18          4         6.00
Clark Kent          87:13          9         6.33
Ispoke              84:16          9         6.33
sj001               77:23         10         6.40
Jackietreehorn      77:23          8         6.50
klac                80:20         10         6.60
reider              86:14          4         6.75
coolmilo            78:22          4         6.75
blindcat87          86:14          9         7.00
gand41f             80:20         10         7.10
blurayboy           81:19          8         7.38
iNCREDiPiNOY        80:20          2         7.50
TheRealBob          91:9           9         7.89
Goodguy818          80:20          7         8.29
bbg                 85:15          5         9.00
danay82             79:21          1         9.00
GregBlu5            82:18          9         9.33
MadScientist        89:11          7         9.57
the nine hells      76:24          2        10.00
Rolo71              79:21          7        10.29
Ops2p               91:9           8        10.88

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
4	124	14	91 (10) [41]	81	67 (14) [69]	80.24	80	80
5	121	0	99* (26) [121]	73	78 (-5) [0]	86.88	86	85
6	66	2	95 (18) [56]	77	68 (9) [8]	82.88	82	81
7	58	6	94 (19) [42]	75	69 (6) [10]	79.49	79	80
8	38	1	86 (21) [37]	65	65 (0) [0]	78.61	78.5	80
9	49	2	91 (13)	 [33]	78	55 (23) [14]	79.55	81	82
10	38	1	91 (3) [4]	88	76 (12) [33]	82.87	82.5	80

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[sj001]

First in with my guess... 86:14...

[cartman781]

88:12

[coolmilo]

85:15

[reider]

82:18

[iNCREDiPiNOY]

86:10

[Denzelio]

90:10

[blurayboy]

85:15

[GregBlu5]

91-9

[Clark Kent]

84-16

[Rolo71]

92:8

[the nine hells]

90:10

[Joon]

93:7 in favor of DVD. I am loving that there is more and more discussion about DVD and Blu-ray now. You can tell it is getting in the publics eye more and more now. You are seeing good and bad threads about DVD and Blu-ray now. Especially that Blu-ray was at 6% this past week. I expect by next year after Christmas that Blu-ray will be at 20-30% by next Christmas.

[Ops2p]

87:13

Since my 91:9 is used

[Pellaeon]

Well gotta go 92:8

[savage1984]

90:10

[klac]

92:8

[gand41f]

90:10