A comparative metric for announcements

[Damon Payne]

(This is a "Damon likes to argue" post)
We talk and posture and pontificate on this site fairly regularly about what event or announcment means "progress towards completion" of the high definition optical disc format war. The BDA has been announcing that the war is over for some time now, but obviously that's premature.

Take the case of Japan: supposedly BD has > 95% market share for high definition optical. BD launched there before it did here in the US I believe. Is there 100% content availability on BD in Japan? Are HD-DVD players off the shelves? Have we seen exchanges where victory is claimed and refuted? Is the North American market truly the only market that matters? By this I mean is HD-DVD going to remain on the shelves in Japan until Toshiba can see if it will survive in NA or Europe?

What about Australia, where it seems HD-DVD was DOA due to lack of retailer support? We've seen headlines showing how 10 small independent studios in Europe chose to go HD-DVD only, but is that even a dent in the # of discs that will be sold as millions of PS3s spread across Europe with blockbuster titles?

When do we see these authoritiative statements:
"The format war is absolutely over in Japan"
"The format war is absolutely over in Australia, Aussie's have chosen BD"
"The PS3 made sure Europe is solidly Blu with consistent 20:1 disc sales over HD-DVD"
etc, etc
My argument is that until we see these announcements and more importantly some form of "proof" like 100% content availability on BD in Japan or Australia where BD arguably has a far better position than NA, we can't very well proclaim BD victory here.

[Blubaru]

That’s a defeatist attitude

[Damon Payne]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

That’s a defeatist attitude

Not at all.
Let's take a look at markets (Japan) where BD is doing even better than here in NA, and consider that when those are irrefutably conquered, that that is the herald of impending irrefutable format victory in other markets. This of course requires defining metrics for irrefutable format victory, which I am claiming is 100% content availability. Does Japan have 100% content availability on BD?

[jorg]

north america is the biggest entertainment market but you have to look at it this way so all of north america so about 400 million max only suports hd dvd and the rest of the world suports blu-ray so like ause japan and euro. if that happens dule format players will be the best but that wont happen with blu-ray pritty much killing everything els and having a 2:1 lead in NA then i tinks its clear. if NA dosent make the desision the rest of the world will

[GasCat]

There are still those who mourn the death of the Atari computer. The HD-DVD supporters will blame us for it's failure (some will never admit Blu had it beat). So it goes....