BD v HD-DVD Predictions - Blu-ray Forum

Blu-Ray Buckeye · 05-04-2007, 02:33 PM

A professor at Kansas University created a quasi-financial security to try to predict what people really believe regarding whether BD sales will outpace HD-DVD sales in 2007. Basically it's similar to an options contract.

If BD outsells HD-DVD in '07 then your contract would be worth $100. If BD does not win then it would be worth $0. The implication is that if this were an even battle the price of the option should be exactly $50. Instead the contract is currently trading at $82 and has been rising since it started trading a few months ago. Pretty much no one is willing to bet on the HD-DVD side.

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/...etailID=474416

Matt X · 05-04-2007, 02:56 PM

is this actually trading on the market, or is the professor running a simulation where active securities traders can weigh in on this speculation by fake investing as if it WAS real? either way for those non-financial types out there, volume/directional readings on REAL options trading can give a good picture on what investors think will happen in the market in the future. Options #'s are a good gauge of "consumer sentiment" (consumers in this case being investors) - so if this is an exercise that involves investors/speculators that are studying this BR/HDDVD market from the "outside" (as investors who want to make a bet on the direction of a war to make a profit, not as fanboys), these #'s in favor of BR are VERY interesting.

Blu-Ray Buckeye · 05-04-2007, 03:09 PM

I think it is a simulation. If it were real money I think we'd all be throwing $$ at it to lock in that easy $18 return on our $82 investement. Still it is very telling, essentially saying that people will bet $82 for a possible $100 on BD and only $18 for their chance at $100 on HD-DVD.

05-04-2007, 02:33 PM	#1
Blu-Ray Buckeye Power Member Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Virginia	BD v HD-DVD Predictions A professor at Kansas University created a quasi-financial security to try to predict what people really believe regarding whether BD sales will outpace HD-DVD sales in 2007. Basically it's similar to an options contract. If BD outsells HD-DVD in '07 then your contract would be worth $100. If BD does not win then it would be worth $0. The implication is that if this were an even battle the price of the option should be exactly $50. Instead the contract is currently trading at $82 and has been rising since it started trading a few months ago. Pretty much no one is willing to bet on the HD-DVD side. https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/...etailID=474416

Similar Threads
thread	Forum	Thread Starter	Replies	Last Post
Transformers 3 predictions	Movies	onemorechance	57	08-25-2009 07:12 AM
MS PS3 predictions	PS3	partridge	1	07-27-2007 09:07 AM
TV Predictions article - "Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Roll the Credits" (18.06.07)	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	goodstuff	7	06-18-2007 10:40 PM
Seven tech predictions for '07	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	marzetta7	4	01-23-2007 08:59 PM
2007 general tech predictions, not BD/HD DVD related	General Chat	Maximus	0	01-12-2007 04:56 PM

05-04-2007, 02:56 PM	#2
Matt X Senior Member Member since:Feb 2007	is this actually trading on the market, or is the professor running a simulation where active securities traders can weigh in on this speculation by fake investing as if it WAS real? either way for those non-financial types out there, volume/directional readings on REAL options trading can give a good picture on what investors think will happen in the market in the future. Options #'s are a good gauge of "consumer sentiment" (consumers in this case being investors) - so if this is an exercise that involves investors/speculators that are studying this BR/HDDVD market from the "outside" (as investors who want to make a bet on the direction of a war to make a profit, not as fanboys), these #'s in favor of BR are VERY interesting.

05-04-2007, 03:09 PM	#3
Blu-Ray Buckeye Power Member Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Virginia	I think it is a simulation. If it were real money I think we'd all be throwing $$ at it to lock in that easy $18 return on our $82 investement. Still it is very telling, essentially saying that people will bet $82 for a possible $100 on BD and only $18 for their chance at $100 on HD-DVD.

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals