81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Blu-dock Saint]

Let's hope for monday, doubt we'll see anything this weekend.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

While we're waiting let's recap....

these numbers will include July the 10th which saw Blu-ray release zero titles and HD DVD release 4 catalog titles, correct?

Yes and it will include the first days of the lower price for the PS3. So the very earliest of the increased PS3 sales will begun to have an influence. Of course there will be some lag because of shipment time for online orders and human procrastination. But things could start to get interesting. Unless of course Microsoft bought out Nielsen this week.

[Fozziwig]

As we aren't getting Nielsen numbers this week I thought I'd post numbers for the next 18 months..

Month    Units	        HD	BD	 HD DVD	        Blu-ray
May	 600,000 	36%	64%	 216,000 	 384,000 
June	 400,000 	35%	65%	 140,000 	 260,000 
July	 350,000 	33%	67%	 115,500 	 234,500 
Aug	 450,000 	30%	70%	 135,000 	 315,000 
Sep	 575,000 	28%	72%	 161,000 	 414,000 
Oct	 725,000 	25%	75%	 181,250 	 543,750 
Nov	 1,000,000 	20%	80%	 200,000 	 800,000 
Dec	 1,800,000 	18%	82%	 324,000 	 1,476,000 
Jan	 1,200,000 	15%	85%	 180,000 	 1,020,000 
Feb	 1,300,000 	12%	88%	 156,000 	 1,144,000 
Mar	 1,450,000 	10%	90%	 145,000 	 1,305,000 
Apr	 1,600,000 	8%	92%	 128,000 	 1,472,000 
May	 1,650,000 	8%	92%	 132,000 	 1,518,000 
Jun	 1,500,000 	7%	93%	 105,000 	 1,395,000 
Jul	 1,695,000 	7%	93%	 118,650 	 1,576,350 
Aug	 1,800,000 	6%	94%	 108,000 	 1,692,000 
Sep	 2,100,000 	5%	95%	 105,000 	 1,995,000 
Oct	 2,600,000 	4%	96%	 104,000 	 2,496,000 
Nov	 3,100,000 	3%	97%	 93,000 	 3,007,000 
Dec	 4,500,000 	3%	97%	 135,000 	 4,365,000

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

As we aren't getting Nielsen numbers this week I thought I'd post numbers for the next 18 months..

Month    Units	        HD	BD	 HD DVD	        Blu-ray
May	 600,000 	36%	64%	 216,000 	 384,000 
June	 400,000 	35%	65%	 140,000 	 260,000 
July	 350,000 	33%	67%	 115,500 	 234,500 
Aug	 450,000 	30%	70%	 135,000 	 315,000 
Sep	 575,000 	28%	72%	 161,000 	 414,000 
Oct	 725,000 	25%	75%	 181,250 	 543,750 
Nov	 1,000,000 	20%	80%	 200,000 	 800,000 
Dec	 1,800,000 	18%	82%	 324,000 	 1,476,000 
Jan	 1,200,000 	15%	85%	 180,000 	 1,020,000 
Feb	 1,300,000 	12%	88%	 156,000 	 1,144,000 
Mar	 1,450,000 	10%	90%	 145,000 	 1,305,000 
Apr	 1,600,000 	8%	92%	 128,000 	 1,472,000 
May	 1,650,000 	8%	92%	 132,000 	 1,518,000 
Jun	 1,500,000 	7%	93%	 105,000 	 1,395,000 
Jul	 1,695,000 	7%	93%	 118,650 	 1,576,350 
Aug	 1,800,000 	6%	94%	 108,000 	 1,692,000 
Sep	 2,100,000 	5%	95%	 105,000 	 1,995,000 
Oct	 2,600,000 	4%	96%	 104,000 	 2,496,000 
Nov	 3,100,000 	3%	97%	 93,000 	 3,007,000 
Dec	 4,500,000 	3%	97%	 135,000 	 4,365,000

I think that once BD hits around 75% it will be harder for it to get to 80 and then pass it....

so instead of accelerating, the sales should slip just a little...

we'll go up 2% instead of 3 and 1% instead of 2...

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

As we aren't getting Nielsen numbers this week I thought I'd post numbers for the next 18 months..

Your own estimates?

It will soon see if it fits. It says BD will start accelerating away from HD DVD sales in August.

Gary

[The Don]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Your own estimates?

It will soon see if it fits. It says BD will start accelerating away from HD DVD sales in August.

Gary

I would say october/november...

once the average Joe gets to see spiderman series and a few others on BD....the demand will set in..

[Rup_Muk]

Originally Posted by The Don

I think that once BD hits around 75% it will be harder for it to get to 80 and then pass it....

so instead of accelerating, the sales should slip just a little...

we'll go up 2% instead of 3 and 1% instead of 2...

I think the projections can be a double-edged sword. If trends continue, I think The Don is right...

However, one cannot discount the effect of a "feed-forward" cycle: i.e. once sales hit a certain threshold (say, 75% BD), more people buy into BD - thereby accelerating the proportionate purchases of BDs...

Can we place friendly wagers? While we wait for Nielsen...

Rup.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by The Don

I think that once BD hits around 75% it will be harder for it to get to 80 and then pass it....

so instead of accelerating, the sales should slip just a little...

we'll go up 2% instead of 3 and 1% instead of 2...

What was previous resistance set at? BD should rocket to 75-80 once it brakes out of resistance.

A good breakout would also signify that Blu-ray is gaining wider acceptance with the general public

[LeoneFan]

Does anyone know what's going on? Have they missed a week before? This is strange.

[dialog_gvf]

As the percentage gets higher, smaller percentage changes mean big multiple swings. So the percentage change should decrease.

60% - 1.5:1
67% - 2:1
75% - 3:1
80% - 4:1
83.3% - 5:1
90% - 9:1
91% - 10:1

Gary

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Rup_Muk

I think the projections can be a double-edged sword. If trends continue, I think The Don is right...

However, one cannot discount the effect of a "feed-forward" cycle: i.e. once sales hit a certain threshold (say, 75% BD), more people buy into BD - thereby accelerating the proportionate purchases of BDs...

Can we place friendly wagers? While we wait for Nielsen...

Rup.

it shouldn't speed up drastically for another 3-6 months IMO...

wager on..

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Your own estimates?

It will soon see if it fits. It says BD will start accelerating away from HD DVD sales in August.

Gary

Yes, they are my own - just a bit of idle speculation really.

My view is that Blu-ray needs to bring all its resources together and deliver a hammer blow to HD DVD in the run up to Christmas. A few factors that will help deliver this include:

The PS3 selling strongly (remaining at $499 or less).
Increased range of standalones with prices starting from $349.
All the Blu-ray exclusive studios delivering a decent number of titles to boost the Blu-ray catalogue to 500+ by Christmas.
Every major theatrical hit released on Blu-ray (theatrical releases up to August can make the Christmas release date).
Blockbuster expanding Blu-ray to every store.
More retailers going either Blu-ray exclusive or showing a strong in-store preference for Blu-ray.

That will, IMO, be enough to push Blu-ray up to and slightly beyond the 80% market share point. To go significantly beyond that will require a few more dominoes to fall. The major one being Universal starting to release Blu-ray titles.

If Blu-ray does consistently hit 80% market share then GE will FORCE Universal to release on Blu-ray (and probably fire Graffeo in the process).

GE clearly don't mind being made to look like fools, but I expect they will draw the line at being made to look like morons.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Does anyone know what's going on? Have they missed a week before? This is strange.

Maybe they are having a big argument whether the Memento and Resident Evil: Apocalypse numbers reported by Amazon should be included or not.

enjoy
gandalf

[dobyblue]

I tell you the week ending December 30th will probably be BD90 : HD 10

It's going to be a massacre. (Q4 altogether)

[BillCable]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

GE clearly don't mind being made to look like fools, but I expect they will draw the line at being made to look like morons.

LOL!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I tell you the week ending December 30th will probably be BD90 : HD 10

It's going to be a massacre. (Q4 altogether)

You can already hear the river in Egypt club: 70% to 90% is only 20% more!

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

You can already hear the river in Egypt club: 70% to 90% is only 20% more!

I sure can hear that and I bet it will be in a thread started by 2007's "Most deluded HD DVD fanboy" award recipient Lee Stewart.

[paulb]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Does anyone know what's going on? Have they missed a week before? This is strange.

They did some mid-week issues covering the EMA so they probably didn't have any time to put together next week's issue.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Maybe they are having a big argument whether the Memento and Resident Evil: Apocalypse numbers reported by Amazon should be included or not.

If the Memento and RE:A number are relevant overall, that is really bad news for HD DVD since a player was sold with every copy they gave away!

[MrBogey]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Maybe they are having a big argument whether the Memento and Resident Evil: Apocalypse numbers reported by Amazon should be included or not.

enjoy
gandalf

Well if Amazon made the deal then it's a sale. HD DVD had the same thing go on at brick and mortar joints where the player would ring up at about 120$ cheaper than list and then 120$ of movies were added. Someone on AVS bragged about how the clerk screwed up and he got the player for cheaper because the clerk let him pick cheaper flicks than listed.

So yea, they should count... especially since Amazon bought those discs from the distributors for the intention of selling them.