Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[The_Donster]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Just some chum for thought.

You know it’s feeding time for some of the usual suspects

[octagon]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

Regardless of what format you support, it is a fear of loss that seems to be a great motivator to some. Tech is ever evolving and the market will evolve with it. So enjoy it and stop worrying about an uncertain future.

This. If physical media sales were at DVD era peak levels would we have access to more catalog BD releases. Yeah, I think that's pretty obvious.

But it is what it is. Moping about the fact that other people are spending their time and their money on the things they want instead of things that would benefit me and my hobby is silly. Do I wish more people were lining up to buy catalog titles on BD? Sure. That would be good for me.

But they're not so catalog titles cost a little bit more than might have otherwise and they get restored and remastered and released more slowly.

That's life.

At least that's what people say.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by octagon

This. If physical media sales were at DVD era peak levels would we have access to more catalog BD releases. Yeah, I think that's pretty obvious.

But it is what it is. Moping about the fact that other people are spending their time and their money on the things they want instead of things that would benefit me and my hobby is silly. Do I wish more people were lining up to buy catalog titles on BD? Sure. That would be good for me.

But they're not so catalog titles cost a little bit more than might have otherwise and they get restored and remastered and released more slowly.

That's life.

At least that's what people say.

Catalog titles on blu-ray are actually being released in close to the same quantities each year from 587 titles in 2015, 543 titles in 2016, 541 titles in 2017, and 514 titles in 2018. As of June 28, 2019 there have been 301 catalog titles released this year and that is on track to exceed last year's number.

Catalog releases on DVD have shown steady growth until this year: 1438 titles released in 2016, 1509 in 2017, and 1837 in 2018. Catalog releases on DVD for 2019 are lagging, though, at just 544 as of June 28.

http://www.dvdandblurayreleasereport.com/pdf/28.pdf

I have found catalog disc prices to be very stable. I have not noticed any significant price increases for them and seeing how often I do buy them, I think I would have been among the first to beech about it if I had.

Aside from the above, the whole "Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be" philosophy is a healthy one to have. Constant hand wringing likely burns more calories, though, and that could help reduce the coming "ass tax."

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Catalog titles on blu-ray are actually being released in close to the same quantities each year from 587 titles in 2015, 543 titles in 2016, 541 titles in 2017, 514 titles in 2018. As of the end of June 2019, there have been 301 catalog titles released this year and that is on track to exceed last year's number.

And my belief if that all those of those numbers would have been higher if demand for physical media had remained at DVD heyday levels.

Now, in one sense I'm arguing a counterfactual. If disc sales had stayed at a certain level it would have had this effect on number of titles remastered and released and that effect on prices.

But the numbers part is almost true definition. Think about it, I'm basically saying 'if sales had stayed at their highest levels they'd be higher than they are now'. That's pretty much a 'well duh' kind of thing.

Originally Posted by Vilya

I have found catalog disc prices to be very stable. I have not found any significant price increases for them and seeing how often I do buy them, I think I would have noticed.

That has not been my experience. Catalog prices have been inching up over the past few years. Titles that might have otherwise gotten wide studio releases are being licensed to smaller labels and they cost a little more. Retailers aren't running the deep sales they used to. Even Black Friday isn't the disc bonanza it used to be.

And again, what has been happening over the past few years doesn't exactly speak to my 'what might have been' theory.

DVDs - even catalog titles - used to move tens or even hundreds of thousands of units. Discs don't post those kinds of numbers anymore.

Whether 2019 is a lot softer or just a little softer or about the same as 2016 doesn't really speak to the bigger picture. Those numbers are all softer than they would have been had disc sales not taken the hit they did after the DVD peak.

But they did.

Originally Posted by Vilya

Aside from the above, the whole "Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be" philosophy is a healthy one to have. Constant worrying likely burns more calories, though, and that could help reduce the coming "ass tax."

If only.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by octagon

And my belief if that all those of those numbers would have been higher if demand for physical media had remained at DVD heyday levels.

Now, in one sense I'm arguing a counterfactual. If disc sales had stayed at a certain level it would have had this effect on number of titles remastered and released and that effect on prices.

But the numbers part is almost true definition. Think about it, I'm basically saying 'if sales had stayed at their highest levels they'd be higher than they are now'. That's pretty much a 'well duh' kind of thing.



That has not been my experience. Catalog prices have been inching up over the past few years. Titles that might have otherwise gotten wide studio releases are being licensed to smaller labels and they cost a little more. Retailers aren't running the deep sales they used to. Even Black Friday isn't the disc bonanza it used to be.

And again, what has been happening over the past few years doesn't exactly speak to my 'what might have been' theory.

DVDs - even catalog titles - used to move tens or even hundreds of thousands of units. Discs don't post those kinds of numbers anymore.

Whether 2019 is a lot softer or just a little softer or about the same as 2016 doesn't really speak to the bigger picture. Those numbers are all softer than they would have been had disc sales not taken the hit they did after the DVD peak.

But they did.

Again, I have never denied the obvious that disc sales are declining, especially with DVD, but the number of titles being released on disc has grown, not declined. The number of catalog titles on blu-ray are essentially steady year over year and on DVD they have grown each year since 2016 up until this year where they definitely are lagging...so far.

If discs sold better, would we get even more titles? Well, that is indeed a "duh" question. I am discussing the number of titles that are being released, not sales figures. I am very well aware of the decline in sales. Despite that, though, we are seeing more titles being released on disc, not less.

I have not noticed any significant price increases for catalog releases; maybe I'm a shrewder shopper than you in this category? Upcoming Warner Bros. catalog releases are selling for just $17.99; some upcoming Kino Lorber discs are selling for $20 ( just ordered one minutes ago), Arrow titles can be had for about $23 on Amazon and about the same with Criterion. Barnes & Noble is currently running a 50% off sale on titles from both of these distributors. Shout/Scream titles are customarily about $25-$30, but even these go on sale. Mill Creek releases, while bare bone, are often in the $10 range. Many catalog titles drop to the $10-$15 range if you wait and watch for such opportunities. All of these prices are in line with what I have been accustomed to paying.

Black Friday/ Cyber Monday has been a disappointment across many product categories and not just with physical media. More hype than substance in my opinion.

As for your concluding remark, I certainly can not argue against your contention that if discs had sold more units than they did the sales figures would have been better. Sales results would have been higher if they hadn't dropped; who could have guessed this?

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Vilya

The number of titles released has gone UP every year since 2016. This year is on track to beat 2018 as well.

Those who insist that physical media is in deep trouble ALWAYS ignore the fact that we are getting more titles each year, not less. Seems peculiar to see more releases on physical media each year if the market for physical media is in freefall like they insist.

Like ZoetMB said, it's all about ROI, just because Titles are coming out doesn't mean the Studios are making their money back at the Profit Margin they want. With Physical Media the Studios are scrambling to squeeze every penny out before the collapse of The Disc!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Like ZoetMB said, it's all about ROI, just because Titles are coming out doesn't mean the Studios are making their money back at the Profit Margin they want. With Physical Media the Studios are scrambling to squeeze every penny out before the collapse of The Disc!

Wish you would have told me sooner, I have just spent £50 on two discs!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Like ZoetMB said, it's all about ROI, just because Titles are coming out doesn't mean the Studios are making their money back at the Profit Margin they want. With Physical Media the Studios are scrambling to squeeze every penny out before the collapse of The Disc!

Ever more titles are coming out; try to get it right just once.

So, by your astounding logic more titles are being released on disc because those companies that do so are masochists? They do it because they enjoy making trivial returns on their investment? There is so little demand for physical media that their business strategy is to offer even more of it?

The disc market is in no more danger of collapsing than there is of you ever making an intelligent comment. Try not to lose any fingers or toes if you are handling fireworks tonight.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Wish you would have told me sooner, I have just spent £50 on two discs!

You should have offered to pay more lest the studios wind up on the public dole. I used a British expression there just for you.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

You should have offered to pay more lest the studios wind up on the public dole. I used a British expression there just for you.

How about Dolewaller? I hate them type of people.

How about this paragraph? This is from my part of the world.

Alchav is proper wrang like. There is nee way Disc is going to Die. A knaw nee one has said Disc is thriving but there is nee way its ganning away like.
Divn’t Believe him. Haway man, it’s not even on life support, do you knaw what I mean? Reet, off for a cup of hot chocolate, good neet marra.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

How about Dolewaller? I hate them type of people.

How about this paragraph? This is from my part of the world.

Alchav is proper wrang like. There is nee way Disc is going to Die. A knaw nee one has said Disc is thriving but there is nee way its ganning away like.
Divn’t Believe him. Haway man, it’s not even on life support, do you knaw what I mean? Reet, off for a cup of hot chocolate, good neet marra.

I can almost hear it as if you were speaking it.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I can almost hear it as if you were speaking it.

I drop back into this when I finish work!

[Derb]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

There is no collapse of disc coming. The studios are just diversifying their income streams. As long as they can make a profit on DVDs, Blu-ray Discs, digital purchases, digital rentals, and subscriptions they will continue to support all of them.

If most of those thousands of disc releases were actually losing money then the number of releases would have drastically dropped years ago. But it hasn't, it continues to grow. That tells me that most releases continue to be profitable. With the very low cost of pressing discs they don't have to sell discs at a high volume or a high cost to make a profit.

Additionally the per title per person spending on each DVD & Blu-ray is always going to be drastically higher than what people are willing to spend on digital subscriptions. It's in the studios' best interest to continue catering to people who are willing to spend more on each movie and TV show.

No collapse.

Opposite in fact as 8K UHD will likely take form.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

The disc market is in no more danger of collapsing than there is of you ever making an intelligent comment.

One should not be eating or drinking when reading your post. That poster does deserve an award for making the largest number of dumb post in a row.

[Steedeel]

I read that the short form Quibi service will now have exclusive rights to their content and then after two years, they will allow studios and buyers the right to stitch the short form video together to distribute long form. That suggests to me that the rights buyers will focus on Quibi first as it’s a cheaper way of owning film or tv content. The studios will finance the short form with the understanding that they own the rights after two years. in other words, Unless you are Netflix or Apple, it’s extremely hard to own your content so this will be the preferred route (in my opinion) This sounds like a disaster with normally first run long form actually debuting on mobile first.

https://www.slashfilm.com/quibi-cont...become-movies/

Basically, get the rights to a film on the cheap via mobile only. This stinks of disruption I’m afraid. This is the type of thing I have been preaching about.

Why should film makers go the expensive route when they can do it like this? They then get the rights to distribute to ‘legacy’ devices.

[The_Donster]

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

It’s just business sense, isn’t it? Finance a movie by putting it on mobile in short form and then get rights after two years to stitch it all up. I see more and more big profile creators and studios going this route. Unless you can come up with a explanation rather than a extremely tiring gif.

It even says in the article, one director decided to go this route rather than release his film long form.

Give me one good reason why many many industry people wouldn’t go this route.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I read that the short form Quibi service will now have exclusive rights to their content and then after two years, they will allow studios and buyers the right to stitch the short form video together to distribute long form. That suggests to me that the rights buyers will focus on Quibi first as it’s a cheaper way of owning film or tv content. The studios will finance the short form with the understanding that they own the rights after two years. in other words, Unless you are Netflix or Apple, it’s extremely hard to own your content so this will be the preferred route (in my opinion) This sounds like a disaster with normally first run long form actually debuting on mobile first.

https://www.slashfilm.com/quibi-cont...become-movies/

Basically, get the rights to a film on the cheap via mobile only. This stinks of disruption I’m afraid. This is the type of thing I have been preaching about.

Why should film makers go the expensive route when they can do it like this? They then get the rights to distribute to ‘legacy’ devices.

I think they're doing it just to watch your head explode.

If you think the film studios are going to restrict the distribution of their content to Quibi, which hasn't even launched yet, or to any other single distribution method, then your mind is more far gone than I feared.

Studios distribute their content via many various methods to increase revenue. Restricting access to an as yet unlaunched and unproven service, Quibi, would be ridiculous. Licensing their valuable content "on the cheap" to anyone makes no sense at all.

Yes, you do keep preaching, much like someone else here who keeps posting the same old falsehoods, but neither of you through your relentless repetition can make any of it the truth.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I think they're doing it just to watch your head explode.

If you think the film studios are going to restrict the distribution of their content to Quibi, which hasn't even launched yet, or to any other single distribution method, then your mind is more far gone than I feared.

Studios distribute their content via many various methods to increase revenue. Restricting access to an as yet unlaunched and unproven service, Quibi, would be ridiculous.

Yes, you do keep preaching like someone else here who keeps posting the same old falsehoods, but neither of you through your relentless repetition can make any of it factual.

Studios would ALREADY be limiting their content to mobile exclusively for two years. It says so in the article. Let’s say they decide to that route with the next blockbuster or huge franchise? Mobile exclusive window for two years and then other distribution methods.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Studios would ALREADY be limiting their content to mobile exclusively for two years. It says so in the article. Let’s say they decide to that route with the next blockbuster or huge franchise? Mobile exclusive window for two years and then other distribution methods.

The article says that they can edit the content that they licensed for the period of that license. Of course they can do whatever their license permits. It has no bearing on the immeasurable amount of content that they do not own and will not have licensed. You make it sound as if all content will fall under their control and that all future content will be made only for them.

I can't see Disney turning over the Star Wars franchise, or the Marvel Comics Universe, to Quibi.

Quibi is just another entertainment option to choose from, one that may even fail in this increasingly crowded streaming landscape; it will not reduce our other viewing options regardless.