81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[JAGUAR1977]

I'm not familiar with Engadget, but the few times I've read articles, it comes across as some kind of heavily biased blog, not a serious journallistic website.

Just when Blu-ray fans thought they'd run away with it, the red camp strikes back with a 58/42 (1.38:1) split according to the Nielsen VideoScan numbers courtesy of Home Media magazine

It's coming to something when 60-40 type losses are now considered HD-DVD wins, is it possible to be anymore desperate?

As for your comments, well what can I say, Blu-ray wins every week, on big weeks the wins are truely thumping, on 'poor' weeks it's a regular 60-40 split, yet the same doom and gloom merchants spin this as impending disaster for Blu-ray. You appear to be going out of your way, like a couple of others, to hype HD-DVD and dampen Blu-ray, for what reason I'm not sure.

HP will be 2-1 or thereabouts, just like every other WB title, the obvious exception being Plante Earth.

[Neo65]

Looking at the numbers, I'm inclined to think that this past week's sales are incredibly low. As to how low it is, this is one of those times where I really wish people would leak one of the unit sales.

Although this is coming off the black friday peak, it's difficult to believe that DH4 would drop to 1/10 of week1, so I'm inclined to think that this week should be 25k for DH4, but that would mean a whole bunch of catalog disks all sold over 10k, and PE would be selling 24k, which is possible, but also at the limits of what is reasonable.

It could just be the post-black-friday is an anomaly as people buy something else other than HDM.

[DealsR4theDevil]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Looking at the numbers, I'm inclined to think that this past week's sales are incredibly low. As to how low it is, this is one of those times where I really wish people would leak one of the unit sales.

Although this is coming off the black friday peak, it's difficult to believe that DH4 would drop to 1/10 of week1, so I'm inclined to think that this week should be 25k for DH4, but that would mean a whole bunch of catalog disks all sold over 10k, and PE would be selling 24k, which is possible, but also at the limits of what is reasonable.

It could just be the post-black-friday is an anomaly as people buy something else other than HDM.

I did not like DH4 to much in theaters and I didn't expect it to do as good as everyone else on here thought. That having been said, I am surprised as hell that Planet Earth HD DVD is beating Pirates 3 Blu-ray on Amazon. The sudden rise of Planet Earth on HD DVD is baffling and I don't think its just people thinking they are buying DVDs.

[JAGUAR1977]

Yes, but Planet Earth has been top 50 for ages, it's regularly beat DH4, Spiderman 3 and many other big day and dates on Amazon, but other than last week, it's sales have been quite low, whereas DH4/SP3 sold close to 100k each.

[The Guardian]

exactly Jaguar, that's why I'm starting to think the people saying it's foreign orders might be on to something. It would explain why it does so much better at Amazon than anywhere else.

[Seretur]

Also, Amazon is currently giving away free titles with the purchase of one of these new-generation HD DVD players (plus they're running a 40% off promotion on select action titles).

I haven't checked the free title offer (as I'm icky that way), but could it be that PE is a part of it?

[Firestreak]

I think Planet Earth is seen as a showcase DVD for people's high def tv/player. Therefore home theater enthusiasts are more likely to buy, while PS3 owners are more regular people who happen to own the gear to play. When you look at it from this perspective, PS3 owners are actually a better indicator of a format than early adopters. The HD DVD guys represent a minority of movie buyers while the PS3 guys are just regular people with normal buying habits. I'd say they're probably mostly male, but then early adopter HD DVD guys are probably mostly male too.

[Razzy]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

It's coming to something when 60-40 type losses are now considered HD-DVD wins, is it possible to be anymore desperate?

Yep, they lose yet they think they've won.

"58-42..well thats close to 55-45. Yep...Damn we're doing ok now. 55-45, geeze y'know, that's prety close to 50-50. OMG!! 1 more percentage point and we've got 'er sewn up!!"

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by Razzy

Yep, they lose yet they think they've won.

"58-42..well thats close to 55-45. Yep...Damn we're doing ok now. 55-45, geeze y'know, that's prety close to 50-50. OMG!! 1 more percentage point and we've got 'er sewn up!!"

Aren't those the four stages of denial? Something like that?

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

exactly Jaguar, that's why I'm starting to think the people saying it's foreign orders might be on to something. It would explain why it does so much better at Amazon than anywhere else.

IMO, the majority of Planet Earth HD-DVD orders are through Amazon, due to cost and the player deals, which even if Planet Earth is not included, it's the one HD-DVD title, along with Transformers, you're most likely to pick up.

Overseas buyers are also a factor, the price is much lower, while shipping costs are very reasonable.

Planet Earth on HD-DVD always ranks significantly higher than the BD version, yet other than last week, sales have been 50/50 on Nielson, suggesting BD shifts more copies in store.

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by roachxp

HP5 will be the new indicator till something better comes along.

I think you're right. If nothing else everyone should hit the HP5 title with a vengence!

We must come out big Dec 11 week!!!

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by patrick99

What was number 2 the previous week, G?

Open Season (thanks to Best Buy PS3 offer).

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by blujacket

No way red sells more Potter.

Something we can't afford to have happen, rather we have to blow them away with a 3:1

[WickyWoo]

I don't think there's a single chance in hell that HD will even come close. I'm sure there's a few thousand fanboys buying singles, but with next week's onslaught of Blu, they'll be lucky to keep it below 65

[blu2]

I'll go out on a limb and predict a sub-60 week for Blu Ray, and possibly a very marginal Blu Ray win.

I believe some may be underestimating the performance of the Bourne movie, and overestimating Potter.

[Esox50]

I think the initial ratio of Harry Potter will be something like 1.5:1 in favor of Blu, but over time it will creep up to the 1.8:1 or 2:1 range. It's just like anything else except Planet Earth: HD DVD comes strong out of the gate and then fades into oblivion.

For those "complaining" about a lower winning ratio for BD and/or HD DVD fanboys saying that with all of the releases BD has that BD should be winning by more, you guys are missing something. Remember that there is a segment of customer that has a budget, and this is probably a decent percent of both HD DVD and BD supporters, especially the younger ones. That budget reduces the effect of the disparity in the the number of BD and HD DVD releases. If a BD supporter can spend $300 on discs in 4Q, that's 10 BD discs (using MSRP) no matter the number of releases. The mirror image is an HD DVD supporter with $300, thats's also HD DVD 10 discs (using MSRP) no matter the number of releases. HD DVDers just don't have as big a choice of new releases upon which to spend their paper route money.

[edgebsl]

Theres not so much a way to combat the flawed logic that would chalk these numbers up as victory.

When you have those who's reasoning tells them that a 72% week means nothing of consequence for their enemy and that simply achieveing close to parity for one week means a turning of the tides.

When in fact if they truly turned the table and won every week next year with similar consistency of ratio as we did...well their own reasoning that wouldnt mean hd dvd was winning at all? They'd be in the same boat we are?
With no declaration of dominance to be justified by the enemy?

What a long path to victory the hd dvd camp have when you look at it like that. The phrase "blind optimist" comes to mind.

Oh wait , they dont want to win, they want both formats to fail...well, no wonder not losing so bad is a victory then! Depends on what your goals are eh?

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Here is Engadgets take on this weeks numbers:

Just when Blu-ray fans thought they'd run away with it, the red camp strikes back with a 58/42 (1.38:1) split according to the Nielsen VideoScan numbers courtesy of Home Media magazine. The fun part is trying to figure out what everyone bought. Looking at the top ten list, we can only assume that all those new HD-A2 owners have finally started buying movies -- either that or everyone went out and bought a second copy of Planet Earth. The most interesting thing, is that even though HD DVD almost sold as many titles as Blu-ray, only three made the top ten, and none of them were released the same week. This tells us that a lot of people bought a wide array of titles, which is good news for red. This isn't the best they've done since we've been tracking, in fact when Transformers was released it was 55/45. We can't wait to check out the numbers next week, to see if red's new legs can hold up against the latest installment of Pirates.

Now, before I'm accused of being a troll I want to say that I had similiar thoughts of this article when seeing the 58:42. I know there can be an "Oprah" effect, and maybe alot of people bought the wrong format. Another thing to consider is that sony sold a ton of ps3's in the last couple of weeks and I don't see how this is paying off in an increase of titles sold where it seems to be happening for the A2 crowd. This next week with HP is going to be the most crucial week and I believe the conditions are favorable for Dud to pull off a win with HP.

greekster, did you write the Endgadget's article? Looks like it came from the same talking points you use.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

I'm not familiar with Engadget, but the few times I've read articles, it comes across as some kind of heavily biased blog, not a serious journallistic website.

Agreed. Engadget is definitely not a serious website. Almost all of the Blogsmith group's blogs present about 2% fact to 98% ass-holish sarcasm.
Ben Drawbaugh, who covers the format war on EngadgetHD, always delivers some FUD when HD-DVD "appears" to get one foot out of the grave. He says stuff like: "Those 90,000 A2 owners are finally showing up, look out Blu-Ray!"

However, he fails to note the #'s are for the week after the biggest shopping week of the year, when they got trounced by relatively 70%. Black Friday week means a hell of a lot more since it's the biggest shopping week of the entire year, period.

I personally think it's pretty bad when you get beat 58-42 on residual sales alone, especially whenever your install base supposedly just increased by a couple hundred thousand. Then again, maybe it's actually good for them, as I only see the world through tinted Blu glasses.....

[Thegide]

I'm totally surprised by the fear many users are feeling in wake of this week's numbers.

Why have so many people missed the big point here? Sales volume across the board was low. I'm willing to bet total units moved on both sides hardly scratches the volume numbers from last week's Black Friday domination. A 58:42 win with so little discs factored in certainly couldn't have had a big impact on the YTD or SI numbers. Yet Black Friday alone was enough to move the SI another point (that's two points alone in the last 4-5 weeks).

Let's not forget this week's mediocrity was anticipated for quite some time. Possibly the weakest week in Blu's calendar. To see 58:42 when Blu is flying pretty much off of residuals is actually encouraging. Kind of like beating a man in a fight with your hands tied behind your back.

Just my thoughts...