81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Seriously, anyone NOT thinking that this is one of the best weeks for BD in the history of the format, is absolutley BANANAS!

The 61:39 was great, but the 1.2:1 for a big neutral title from Warner, not so great. I would have been happier with 55:45 and 1.7:1 for HP5 than 61:39 and 1.2:1. Just calling it like I see it. Both sides had something to be happy about for last week's sales.

And this next week, I would rather see 2+:1 for Blade Runner and 65:35 overall than 1.2:1 for Blade Runner and 75:25 overall.

--Darin

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by makingmusic476

Are there that many dual format owners that could make that much of a difference?

I think it is only part of the reason, so wouldn't say it is the only factor (that the price difference to dual format owners caused the whole difference between 2:1 and 1.2:1). The higher price for the combo also discourages some people buying the combo to get the DVD side, with the plan to get an HD DVD player later. But this is also MSRP. Street prices aren't necessarily the same.

--Darin

[kotton247]

Originally Posted by darinp2

The 61:39 was great, but the 1.2:1 for a big neutral title from Warner, not so great. I would have been happier with 55:45 and 1.7:1 for HP5 than 61:39 and 1.2:1. Just calling it like I see it. Both sides had something to be happy about for last week's sales.

And this next week, I would rather see 2+:1 for Blade Runner and 65:35 overall than 1.2:1 for Blade Runner and 75:25 overall.

--Darin

That might be hard to pull off for Blade Runner, thanks to distribution problems on the blu side

[makingmusic476]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I think it is only part of the reason, so wouldn't say it is the only factor (that the price difference to dual format owners caused the whole difference between 2:1 and 1.2:1). The higher price for the combo also discourages some people buying the combo to get the DVD side, with the plan to get an HD DVD player later. But this is also MSRP. Street prices aren't necessarily the same.

--Darin

Yeah, at my Best Buy, they had both versions of OotP listed as $34.99. Usually combo Warner titles are $35 and non-combos are $30. Instead of dropping the HD DVD price like Warner did, they raised the Blu-Ray price.

Of course, the OotP was on sale for $27 that week, it just wasn't labeled as such.

[Balian]

Originally Posted by makingmusic476

61:39 is fan-frickin-tastic, but only 1.2:1 on OotP? That's very odd.

The Departed had been selling around 1.65:1 on average up until November (after that I stopped keeping track). 300 has been selling 2:1 the entire time, and jumped up to 2.3:1 once Toshiba started including it as a pack-in.

Considering the fact that Ocean's 13 sold 1.66:1 in favor of Blu during Black Friday week (showing that all those new HD standalones weren't making any difference), I would've expected HP to sell just as well on Blu if not better, since people like me (gamers, and people that grew up with Harry) would be more likely to purchase HP than the average HD DVD owner (imo). It really is strange that HP only sold 1.2 in favor of Blu. Are all those new HD DVD owners finally buying movies?

I hope the ratios improve from here on out, because 1.6 down to 1.2 shows a trend heading in a really bad direction. If it was another nature documentary, I wouldn't be too worried, but HP?

I wonder how Blade Runner will do. The sooner we get Warner, the sooner all this ends.

It probably has A LOT to do with the BIG coattails of Bourne Ultimatum and nothing more. Expect the ratio to increase next week. Big exclusives tend to draw consumers to the store and thus they pick up additional titles. HD DVD had one BIG exclusive and Blu-ray had none. Any one small factor could decrease a ratio of 1.6 to 1.2.

[makingmusic476]

Guys over at high def digest are saying that Warner titles usually start off pretty even, but Blu-Ray widens the gap over time. I don't really remember this happening with any other titles, but it would make sense. I can't see most ps3 owners (as in the ones that bought it for gaming instead of movies) running out to buy movies the day they come out like an early adopter standalone owner would.

Does anybody know how Ocean's 13 sold the week of release? I know it sold 1.66:1 during Black Friday week.

[raggarichie]

I'm not surprise about Harry Potter, Harry Potter does not appeal to everyone and it certainly doesn't appeal to gamers or ps3 owners. Instead of reading they are more into games anyway.

What's surprising is if this number holds up, HD DVD lost a week that they had Jason Bourne out and many buy one get one sales going on. If Bourne does not appeal to HD DVD owners, or if they did not win this week, just give up already. They gave away HD DVD players for $99 and still lost a week when BD had no other noteworthy exclusive out other than Lost.

This is no longer a war. I consider a war as I fire shots and the other side retaliate, not one side winning all the battles and the other side holding on for dear life.

[blindcat87]

Frankly, with the disc mixup on the HP box, I think we were lucky that the returns and order cancellations didn't knock red sales above BD. Never heard if there were reciprocal errors or not. But I know several people who either cancelled orders or decided to wait until the problem was taken care of to buy. So, all things considered, I see no reason that this victory is not a victory. Everyone is entitled to their opinions though.

Chris

Originally Posted by kotton247

That might be hard to pull off for Blade Runner, thanks to distribution problems on the blu side

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by Neo65

The bad news is that HP's genre of children fantasy appears to have not done well. This means that every single movie that has done well (around or > 100k in week1) is a blockbuster action with more violence targeted at > 20yrolds. 300, TF, Bourne, CR, DH4, PotC3 - these are violent movies. Spidey3 is the tamest of them. (Well maybe TF too).

Family and Teenage fare appear to still face a sales hurdle in HDM.

"Hairspray" was in the "Top 10" releases for 2/3 weeks if I'm not mistaken, "Ratatouille" has been in the "Top 10" since it's been released, if I'm not mistaken. I expect HP5 to be in the "Top 10" for Blu-ray for a while as well.

These titles just don't appear to be moving as much in a week as the others. Also, something to take into account is that I don't remember these types of films doing so well at the start of DVD (some of the biggest hits for DVD were "Air Force One" and "The Matrix", etc...).

I'm still surprised by HP5 though...

~Alan

[makingmusic476]

Originally Posted by raggarichie

I'm not surprise about Harry Potter, Harry Potter does not appeal to everyone and it certainly doesn't appeal to gamers or ps3 owners. Instead of reading they are more into games anyway.

What's surprising is if this number holds up, HD DVD lost a week that they had Jason Bourne out and many buy one get one sales going on. If Bourne does not appeal to HD DVD owners, or if they did not win this week, just give up already. They gave away HD DVD players for $99 and still lost a week when BD had no other noteworthy exclusive out other than Lost.

This is no longer a war. I consider a war as I fire shots and the other side retaliate, not one side winning all the battles and the other side holding on for dear life.

Why wouldn't Harry Potter appeal to gamers? Especially ps3 owners? Most ps3 owners are hardcore games (as they were the most willing to spend 5-600 on a system just months ago), who tend to be a bit on the nerdy side, and, imo, would be more likely to read than the average joe. Especially a fantasy series like Harry Potter. I know I sure as love to read, especially the LotR and HP. Hell, people even write books revolving around more popular game franchises (Devil May Cry comic books in Japan, Halo novels here in the US), and they sell well enough.

Also, I think that the people like me would be the perfect fit to buy HP. Guys around my age (I'm 19) grew up reading HP, and often have a sentimental attachment to the series. Most of the people I know that love the series are also avid gamers, and fantasy fans in general. Gaming and fantasy go hand in hand, imo.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by darinp2

The 61:39 was great, but the 1.2:1 for a big neutral title from Warner, not so great. I would have been happier with 55:45 and 1.7:1 for HP5 than 61:39 and 1.2:1. Just calling it like I see it. Both sides had something to be happy about for last week's sales.

And this next week, I would rather see 2+:1 for Blade Runner and 65:35 overall than 1.2:1 for Blade Runner and 75:25 overall.

I think I posted somewhere in here that I expected 60/40, so I was pretty close... but I was wrong about how we got there. I agree with your statements above.

I have my copy of BR (shipped from the WB store last week), but with the shortages of BR at the stores, I'm not sure what kind of ratio we're going to get with that title. That being said, I expect "The Simpsons", T3, and residuals to push us to a much bigger ratio next week... I'm thinking around 70/30... but I guess we'll see...

~Alan

[darinp2]

As far as the all important Q4, we entered Q4 with Blu-ray being up 61:39 in the Since Inception numbers. The HD DVD side was able to get that to 60:39 with Transformers (it was the first really big blockbuster released in this Q4 for either side). However, by last week the SI was up to 62:29 for Blu-ray and with just Friday and 2 more reports, it looks like at the worst Blu-ray will end Q4 with the same 61:39 for SI that it started Q4 with. And that is after Paramount switched, and instead of $199 Chinese players that some HD DVD fans thought would turn things, the HD DVD side got even better than that with $98 and $199 name brand (Toshiba) players, sometimes with multiple free movies besides the 5 or 7.

As far as YTD, Blu-ray started the quarter at 66:34 and last week it was reported to be 65:34. Up through last Friday's numbers the quarter-to-date is probably between 62:39 and 65:34 and with 61:39 for this week, will likely stay in about that range. With how long some on the HD DVD side have been saying to wait until Q4, I think they were expecting much better than Blu-ray beating them 1.5:1 or higher just for Q4 software. Come January or February, if no studio changes have happened and 1.5:1 plus continues, I wonder what those same HD DVD fans will put in the just-wait-until-xxxx. I've lost track of how long Kosty and rdjam have been predicting HD DVD would start leading for software sales, but I think it goes back to at least February.

--Darin

[krispyjala]

Originally Posted by raggarichie

This is no longer a war. I consider a war as I fire shots and the other side retaliate, not one side winning all the battles and the other side holding on for dear life.

But but but...! Just wait cuz there's a cache of weapons hidden somewhere soon to be delivered to the HD DVD side! Then they will be able to turn the tide of the war...

Or wait! The number of bullets that you fire doesn't seem too many to them...that's why they think they're winning!

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by The Don

well, some of the "pansies" are red people trying to create cause for panic...

and the rest are people who don't know how to handle a commanding lead...like MS has some sort of trump card...

..at this point, it's too late for a trump card..

This will be a first (and probably last) for me:

+1

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by makingmusic476

I hope the ratios improve from here on out, because 1.6 down to 1.2 shows a trend heading in a really bad direction. If it was another nature documentary, I wouldn't be too worried, but HP?

Not really. Suppose the sales go from 1.6:1 at 40k:25k to 1.2:1 at 90k:75k. Both sides have increased their sales by 50k, so the losing side isn't catching up, it's just that the same lead is now smaller compared to total sales.

[GregBlu5]

I go to bed thinking there's one set of numbers, and those were good. I wake up and there are even better numbers for Blu, and yet I read so many posts that are spinning yet another Blu victory negatively! "Oh, my, Martha Stewart's Better Living on Blu-ray didn't beat its Red counterpart by 12 to 1. We're doomed!"

What the hell is going on here?!?

Jeeze, I wish I were still a Missile Combat Crew Commander; I'd lob a few ICBMs just to get someone's attention. What's the matter with you people? Don't you love the smell of radiation and burning red flesh in the morning?!?

(There you go, Mystic, no pansies here! Not on my watch!)

-Greg

[bhampton]

Dv says no early numbers any more.

That's ok,.. it's not like we're going to have another week in which HD DUD will stand a chance so I can wait for the Fridays.


-Brian

[The Don]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Dv says no early numbers any more.

That's ok,.. it's not like we're going to have another week in which HD DUD will stand a chance so I can wait for the Fridays.


-Brian

exactly what I thought when I read it..

[Cartesian]

The 1.2:1 on HP could been influenced by:

a) The 'Transformers' effect of HD-DVD not having as many big titles released, so they all rush out & buy when there is one, and

b) certainly some Blu buyers will have been put off by reports of HD-DVD disks in Blu cases. Who wants to deal with little Johnny's tears on xmas morning when he opens it to see that shit? I know it was the box set, but enough for some to delay buying until those affected have been recalled & replaced on the shelves

Watch what the ratio becomes in 3-4 weeks...

[dakota81]

It was just weird to see so many people at AVS - users who stood behind Blu-ray there throughout the whole mess the past summer / fall, weighing in with even 50/50 guesses. I don't know, maybe the format war just has people on edge with an actual chance it could be over in ~3 weeks? Something's changing around the various forums...