81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[The Don]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Has there been a surge of buys of other HD DVD titles (aside from the limited case of the Amazon BOGO)? If not, and I don't think there has been, then why would we expect one for Planet Earth?

I also said in my theory that this was a title people tended to get when there was nothing hot they wanted to buy. I believe it's a big "we have to pick that up some time" type of title.

If the Oprah theory is true, then explain why the numbers didn't change dramatically right when her site was corrected instead of slowly moving toward parity as the chart shows.

I personally think there is some truth to the theory that people were mistakenly buying HD DVDs as Christmas gifts, not realizing they weren't normal DVDs. I could somewhat buy into the theory that Oprah pushing Planet Earth to a bunch of older women who thought it would make a nice gift caused that to happen more frequently before Christmas. But I don't buy the main theory which is by mistakenly showing the wrong disc and having the wrong link for a short time it had this massive, long-last impact on HD DVD sales.

This chart is just for Amazon, right? So this should show the "Oprah effect" in all its glory, and it should show a massive dropoff in HD DVD sales exactly when they fixed the link. Do you see any such dropoff? I don't see any dropoff at all until 12/21, well after the link had been fixed.

Neilsen numbers support that theory as well..

[JasonR]

Is DV predicting tonight?

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by The Don

a lot of people posted on these sites as having confused the HD-DVD version as something that could be played in their DVD player...

right after Oprah plugged PE to everyone and having the HD-DVD version advertised the sales spiked....and then after christmas there is a sudden downward spike like you wouldn't believe on Amazon for PE...

like it or not...Oprah had a hand in PE skyrocketing on HD-DVD for those 2 weeks or so..

nothing else was selling close to those numbers on their format..

Like it or not? I don't watch Oprah, and if she screwed up and/or maliciously drove HD DVD, I wouldn't really feel the need to defend her. I'd "like" it just fine if it were proven that she did have a big impact.

But I'm just not buying the theory. Re-read what you wrote, and see if it matches this graph:

Originally Posted by The Don

right after Oprah plugged PE to everyone and having the HD-DVD version advertised the sales spiked....and then after christmas there is a sudden downward spike like you wouldn't believe on Amazon for PE...

Where on earth do you see an upward spike for the HD DVD version of PE on that chart? It looks pretty steady to me. And where is this downward spike just for HD DVD? It looks to me like Blu-ray and HD DVD both dropped down at similar rates.

What you are saying does not match the chart. What the chart shows is HD DVD sales strong and steady for this title, with Blu-ray titles starting off slow and steadily climbing until they match the HD DVD sales, and with both taking an expected post-Christmas dive. If anything, the story of the chart is the change in the Blu-ray title, which is much more dynamic than these fantasy spikes in the HD DVD title.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Like it or not? I don't watch Oprah, and if she screwed up and/or maliciously drove HD DVD, I wouldn't really feel the need to defend her. I'd "like" it just fine if it were proven that she did have a big impact.

But I'm just not buying the theory. Re-read what you wrote, and see if it matches this graph:





Where on earth do you see an upward spike for the HD DVD version of PE on that chart? It looks pretty steady to me. And where is this downward spike just for HD DVD? It looks to me like Blu-ray and HD DVD both dropped down at similar rates.

What you are saying does not match the chart. What the chart shows is HD DVD sales strong and steady for this title, with Blu-ray titles starting off slow and steadily climbing until they match the HD DVD sales, and with both taking an expected post-Christmas dive. If anything, the story of the chart is the change in the Blu-ray title, which is much more dynamic than these fantasy spikes in the HD DVD title.

It's probably because you are not seeing the month of November, that's when it started REALLY jumping up there, and then dropped back out of the stratosphere after Christmas.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Like it or not? I don't watch Oprah, and if she screwed up and/or maliciously drove HD DVD, I wouldn't really feel the need to defend her. I'd "like" it just fine if it were proven that she did have a big impact.

But I'm just not buying the theory. Re-read what you wrote, and see if it matches this graph:





Where on earth do you see an upward spike for the HD DVD version of PE on that chart? It looks pretty steady to me. And where is this downward spike just for HD DVD? It looks to me like Blu-ray and HD DVD both dropped down at similar rates.

What you are saying does not match the chart. What the chart shows is HD DVD sales strong and steady for this title, with Blu-ray titles starting off slow and steadily climbing until they match the HD DVD sales, and with both taking an expected post-Christmas dive. If anything, the story of the chart is the change in the Blu-ray title, which is much more dynamic than these fantasy spikes in the HD DVD title.

I was talking about the chart on eproductwars.com

[The Don]

Originally Posted by JasonR

Is DV predicting tonight?

he has stopped...

last week was the last time apparently..

[sj001]

Originally Posted by The Don

he has stopped...

last week was the last time apparently..

Thank god, I'm tired of of hearing his name, he should stick to reviewing movies... in a non-biased fashion.

[JasonR]

It is nice to see Blu wipe the floor with HD DVD a couple days early. I don't care if a turd, ie David Vaughn, was telling me as long as they were right...

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by The Don

he has stopped...

last week was the last time apparently..

I believe I read he is reporting this week as well.

Let me find it.

[JasonR]

I thought this was his last too...

[Sonar5]

Ok found it.

DV Posted 12/27
http://forums.highdefdigest.com/show...&postcount=408

Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

[SGRSBSKIER]

DV said he would do this week and next, which is good as HMM probably will not give us next weeks numbers and they should heavily favor BD.

[BillCable]

Originally Posted by DV

Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

Doesn't that imply knowledge that WB is going Blu-ray exclusive? If they stay neutral or go HD DVD exclusive, then the numbers will still be critical for a very long time. The only case in which the numbers will no longer matter would be if WB goes Blu, because the format war would be over.

[Ops2p]

Quote:
Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

Could someone please explain this

Warner goes Red so it doesn't matter.

Or Warner goes Blu so it doesn't matter.

Or am I just reading into something thats just not there.

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by Ops2p

Quote:
Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

Could someone please explain this

Warner goes Red so it doesn't matter.

Or Warner goes Blu so it doesn't matter.

Or am I just reading into something thats just not there.

Bill hit the nail on the head right above you. Either DV mispoke or indeed his comment appears to mean Blu, if they went HD DVD the numbers sure as hell would matter.. more so than ever before.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Ops2p

Quote:
Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

I noticed this too... hard to say if it's a simple mistake, or if the slip means he knows something about them going Blu.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by BillCable

Doesn't that imply knowledge that WB is going Blu-ray exclusive? If they stay neutral or go HD DVD exclusive, then the numbers will still be critical for a very long time. The only case in which the numbers will no longer matter would be if WB goes Blu, because the format war would be over.

Good catch! I don't see how even the most optimistic HD DVD supporter could think a Warner flip would mean an instant defeat for Blu-ray, so much so that they wouldn't want to see the numbers for at least a few months. If nothing else, they'd at least want to see HD DVD win for a few weeks, right?

But if Warner goes Blu, game over. Yeah, it would be kind of fun to watch the numbers for a while, but not a big deal and probably no real clamoring to get them early.

[blitz6speed]

Winn leaked the #s i believe, 54:46, which means 52 strait weeks of blu-ray victories.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Winn leaked the #s i believe, 54:46, which means 52 strait weeks of blu-ray victories.

If that's true it was way tighter than I thought. But, with huge giveaways at Best Buy and Amazon on HD DVD, that's a pretty solid win for Blu-ray.

And, as you say, 52 out of 52 for 2007.

[makingmusic476]

Originally Posted by sj001

I noticed this too... hard to say if it's a simple mistake, or if the slip means he knows something about them going Blu.

He's been saying he thinks Warner will go one way or the other either at CES or during the week prior. Which way, however, he knows not.