TVPredictions: "HD DVD - 5 Ways It Can Survive" (A pro Blu-ray piece)

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Pretty good article actually. Don't be deceived by the title... it's actually about how much of a longshot HD DUD is to survive at all (see the Vegas style odds in the article).

http://www.tvpredictions.com/hddvd020608.htm

News Analysis
HD DVD: 5 Ways It Can Survive
The high-def format will have to take some risks.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 6, 2008) -- Is HD DVD dead?

Listen to the pundits (including yours truly) and you would think that Blu-ray had already won the high-def disc format war. Some publications (again, including this one) have predicted that the war will officially be over by year's end.

It's easy to make such declarations. Five major studios are now supporting Blu-ray, compared to two for HD DVD. And new sales figures show that Blu-ray player and disc sales are easily outpacing HD DVD.


While it's difficult now to see how HD DVD can compete in the long run, things do change. Just ask this year's candidates for president.

So, here are five ways that HD DVD can survive in the high-def format war in 2008 -- and beyond.

1. Get the Endorsement of a Major Studio
Warner Bros.' decision last month to endorse Blu-ray exclusively was a major blow to HD DVD. However, if Toshiba, the biggest supporter of HD DVD, could persuade one of the Blu-ray studios to switch sides, it would change the dynamic of the contest.
Odds: 20-1.
Worried about declining DVD sales, the studios are anxious to end this war and, therefore, are unlikely to do anything now that might prolong it.

I think they got the odds right on 1) 2) and 4) but the odds on 3 should be 2-1 as prices will probably fall to 49$... it just won't be Toshiba that will be doing it... it will be the stores trying to get rid of those POS. As for 5)... the odds on that one should be 100-1 as Sony will NEVER release or agree to a dual format player.