AVS Forum's HDTVFAN0001: "Blu-ray to die next"

[grip24]

Hey guys ...i just read this and want it to share...........lol


HD DVD demise is just Phase 1 - Blu Ray next

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With the HD DVD platform going south in a hurray now, look for the other shoe to fall in the months ahead - Blu Ray will also fail. While BD will surely gloat that they have won the format war - the fact is, they will have won the battle, but will become a casualty of the overall war themselves - the SD to HD disk conversion war.

There are 4 main reasons:

1) The main objection to Blu Ray is its higher price, and there are no signs to indicate this will change in 2008 - in fact, the next generation units will remain at least in the $400 - $700 price range for some time.

2) Since there are now about 850,000 Blu Ray players out there (excluding PS3 untis), and ALL of those are incapabile of supporting the next generation v1.1 Java, some of the new audio codecs, and certainly anything around (lack of Ethernet connectivity and downloads, that means there will be about 850,000 semi-orphaned owners out there who will be less than pleased that a number of features of upcoming BD disks 6 months from now simply won't work on their boxes. Buyers remorse will make folks gun shy to get another still another (expensive) replacement BD unit.

3) Adoption of Blu Ray and HD DVD disks combined (for the past year through right now) still is virtually microscopic when compared to standard DVDs. When a new blockbuster comes out, HD disks in both HD DVD and Blu Ray sell a couple hundred thousands copies, while their SD counterpart sells Millions and Millions. In short - no one seems to have any incentive to switch, especially with all the upconverting players out there and disks selling for sub-$13 all the time.

4) While there are indeed several Million PS3 units in the market, and they (unlike their dedicated Blu Ray player counterparts) are not as adversely affected by the new v1.1 standards (most can be migrated to PS3) - these people to date have been renters of disks as opposed to buyers of disks by exponential margins. And the renting has not been all that aggressive in numbers either, but they have been better than purchases of BD. That won't keep the studios happy for very long.

When you add all this up...you have the formula for Blu Ray following in HD DVD's footsteps in relatively short order.

Unless next generation Blu Ray players sell in the sub $200 range before year end, and unless the BD disks sell for sub $20 (which Sony has repeatedly publically said they would NOT do), look for Sony to pull the plug by the end of this year or very early after the holiday season because of floundering sales of both players and disks.


heres the link http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=995200