Why Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will NOT be the format of choice in 8 years...

[rimgrund]

It all has to do with AACS giving studios the CHOICE on whether or not they want to adopt the "Image Constraint Token" (i.e. ICT) which will downgrade 1080p analogue output to 540p (half the resolution we paid for!).

With that being said, I am going to make an early prediction as to what's going to happen, and this will be deadly accurate, as time will surely tell. Read on...

1. Major studios WILL in fact downgrade the 1080p signal to 540p for analogue output. Remember: they don't HAVE to; according to AACS, they have the choice.
2. A hacker will find a way to get around the encryption in the HDMI signal. There will be a 'rush' to get this done because hackers realize that once they crack the encyption, they can create discs for analogue TV owners, as they will have the ability to remove the ICT from any disc.
3. At first, only 'downgraded' discs will be bootlegged and will have the ICT removed. Unfortunately, they will sell for slightly more than the regular cost of a Blu-Ray disc because the market is there to do so.
4. Then, more people will discover this crack, the cost of media will come down, and non-analogue HDTV owners will discover this bootleg market. This will create a bootleg market like we've never seen before. In fact, this is the exact opposite of WHY ICT was supposed to be used in the first place!!.
5. Studios will also discover this bootleg market that the ICT created and will be kicking themselves in the butts for years to come.
6. Now the real kicker: since Blu-Ray discs have now been cracked, and there are the two competing formats (HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) will still exist, this will convince ALL of the involved companies in this 'war' to sit down and create a NEW, agreed-upon high definition DVD format. Obviously, this new format will be unlike HD-DVD and Blu-Ray!!

I can see this taking 8 years!

I think most people on here would be hardpressed to tell me I'm wrong with anything in the above statement!!!