Official 87th Academy Awards Prediction and Discussion Thread (February 22nd 2015)

[Foggy]

It's around about the time that the Oscars start to prepare new rules and guidelines for the next years entries, and some films begin to slip out and get into the race early. Here's the latest set of rules they've added and/or changed:

In the Acting categories, studios and production companies must now limit eligibility to a maximum of 10 actors and 10 actresses for each film, and must submit those names on the Official Screen Credits (OSC) form. The Academy's annual Reminder List of Eligible Releases will now list actors and actresses separately for each film. Actors Branch voters would still make their own determinations about whether a performance should be considered under the Leading Role or Supporting Role category on their nominations ballots.

In the Animated Feature Film category, DVD screeners are now required as part of a film's submission.

In the Documentary Feature category, films must now screen a minimum of four times daily during their qualifying theatrical releases in both New York and Los Angeles. The screenings must begin between noon and 10 p.m., and at least one screening daily must begin between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m.

In the Music (Original Song) category, songwriters from established musical groups may now have the option to request that their song submission be considered under their group name. If the request is approved and the song wins the Original Song award, the group would receive a single statuette.

In the Best Picture category, in determining the number of producers on a motion picture who are eligible for nomination, a two-person producing team shall be considered a single "producer" if the individuals have had an established producing partnership for at least the previous five years and have produced as a team at least two previous theatrically released feature films, instead of a minimum five theatrically released feature films.

A rule change in the Production Design category will allow the branch greater flexibility in recognizing the achievements of the principal artists responsible in creating the environment for the story. When the environment of a film is substantially composed of animation and digital artistry, a digital artist who is primarily responsible for the achievement may now be considered for the Production Design award. Previously, only "production designers," "art directors" and "set decorators" were named as eligible for Awards recognition.

In the Animated Short Film and Live Action Short Film categories, films that have received prior nontheatrical public exhibition or distribution may now qualify for Academy Awards consideration by winning a festival award on the Short Films Qualifying Festival List. Without a festival win, the nontheatrical distribution prior to a theatrical release would still disqualify a short film's eligibility.

For the first time, the Gold, Silver and Bronze Medal award-winning films in the Alternative, Animation, Narrative and Foreign Film categories at the 2014 Student Academy Awards will all be eligible for Oscar® consideration in the Short Film categories. Similarly, the Gold, Silver and Bronze winners in the Documentary category at the 2014 Student Academy Awards will be eligible for consideration in the Documentary Short Subject category.

Nothing major, just cracking down on certain loopholes and opening opportunities for smaller films. Upon that they've also added 271 new members this year, including Jason Statham, apparently to add more diversity into the voting system.

So what do you guys think will have a chance this year at the Oscars, I'll begin working on a list of possible considerates for the race, some that may have an outside chance at some smaller awards and technical awards, and some that are outright not going anywhere.

[Foggy]

Strong contenders

The Grand Budapest Hotel (by Wes Anderson)
Boyhood (by Richard Linklater)
The Drop (by Michaël R. Roskam)
Gone Girl (by David Fincher)
Birdman (by Alejandro González Iñárritu)
Interstellar (by Christopher Nolan)
Foxcatcher (by Bennet Miller)
The Imitation Game (by Morten Tyldum)
Wild (by Jean-Marc Vallée)
Mr. Turner (by Mike Leigh)
Inherent Vice (by Paul Thomas Anderson)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (by Ridley Scott)
Big Eyes (by Tim Burton)
Unbroken (by Angelina Jolie)

Smaller films chances

Life Itself (by Steve James)
Mood Indigo (by Michel Gondry)
Alive Inside (by Michael Rossato-Bennett)
A Most Wanted Man (by Anton Corbijn)
Calvary (by John Michael McDonagh)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them (by Ned Benson)
The Good Lie (by Philippe Falardeau)

Technical awards/Songs/Animation

The LEGO Movie (by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller)
Muppets Most Wanted (by James Bobin)
Captain America: The Winter Solider (by Anthony Russo and Joe Russo)
Rio 2 (by Carlos Saldanha)
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (by Marc Webb)
Belle (by Amma Asante)
Godzilla (by Gareth Edwards)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (by Bryan Singer)
Maleficent (by Robert Stromberg)
Edge of Tomorrow (by Doug Liman)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (by Dean DeBlois)
Transformers: Age of Extinction (by Michael Bay)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (by Matt Reeves)
Guardians of the Galaxy (by James Gunn)
The Boxtrolls (by Graham Annable and Anthony Stacchi)
Big Hero 6 (by Don Hall and Chris Williams)
Fury (by David Ayer)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 (by Francis Lawrence)
The Penguins of Madagascar (by Eric Darnell and Simon J. Smith)
The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies (by Peter Jackson)

[Foggy]

Reserved for winners.

[Talal86]

the academy have a very short term memory, so I doubt anything that will get nominated for the big awards is already out

speaking of the academy awards, I'm planning to go through all the best picture winner soon! pretty excited

[Scottie]

From the known films thus far, I'd say Inherent Vice and Interstellar have the best chance of winning the Best Picture.

[Darth Marcus]

I'm wondering if Michael Mann's Cyber will get a limited release before the New Year for an awards push. Right now it has a release date of January 16th, 2015. I've haven't heard anything about the project. All I know is IMDb lists the status as "completed".

And I don't expect it to win, but if The Grand Budapest Hotel were to at least get a BP nom, that would be just fine with me.

[stvn1974]

My prediction is that 4 films that only 12 people have seen and one mild successful film get nominated for Best Picture.

[Astro Zombie]

Originally Posted by Darth Marcus

I'm wondering if Michael Mann's Cyber will get a limited release before the New Year for an awards push. Right now it has a release date of January 16th, 2015. I've haven't heard anything about the project. All I know is IMDb lists the status as "completed".

And I don't expect it to win, but if The Grand Budapest Hotel were to at least get a BP nom, that would be just fine with me.

Agreed

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Talal86

the academy have a very short term memory, so I doubt anything that will get nominated for the big awards is already out

The fan guesses are traditionally lame and desperate usually around October, before the studio's November/December push.
And it's JUNE.

In the Animated Feature Film category, DVD screeners are now required as part of a film's submission.

Now, if only they could make WATCHING them required, Disney would have had two Oscars.

[Kevin Holly]

A nomination for Cage's work in Joe would be great.

[MrBlonde]

Scarlett won't get a nomination for Under the Skin and I will cry.

[newginafets]

Whats the chance The Raid 2 will be nominated?

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by newginafets

Whats the chance The Raid 2 will be nominated?

Let's just say the odds aren't favourable.

[bootsy]

Originally Posted by newginafets

Whats the chance The Raid 2 will be nominated?

I would like to see it get some technical nom but as Foggy said odds are slim.

[Astro Zombie]

Originally Posted by newginafets

Whats the chance The Raid 2 will be nominated?

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Original Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Original Screenplay

[Show spoiler]In a perfect world

[vader4]

I don't think Inherent Vice will get a Best Picture nomination. The Master was mostly overlooked primarily because of the film's strange nature and the novel on which this film is based is by Thomas Pynchon whose work is widely acknowledged as strange while at the same time brilliant. Inherent Vice has a pretty good chance of being my top film this year, but I'm almost certain it won't be nominated for Best Picture.

Interstellar has a better chance, but it's still unlikely from my perspective. Nolan has only be for three oscars; two for Inception (mind you that this was in one of their 'grab the younger audience years') and one for Memento. Avatar, Inception, and Gravity have certainly opened the door for more sci-fi to be nominated so it could make the cut, but I'm still not sure.

Of course everyone knows that Foxcatcher and Unbroken will be nominated.

[Foggy]

83 countries submit films for consideration:

• Afghanistan, A Few Cubic Meters of Love (dir. Jamshid Mahmoudi)
• Argentina, Wild Tales (dir. Damián Szifrón)
• Australia, Charlie's Country (dir. Rolf de Heer)
• Austria, The Dark Valley (dir. Andreas Prochaska)
• Azerbaijan, Nabat (dir. Elchin Musaoglu)
• Bangladesh, Glow of the Firefly (dir. Khalid Mahmud Mithu)
• Belgium, Two Days, One Night (dir. Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne)
• Bolivia, Olvidados (dir. Carlos Bolado)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina, With Mom (dir. Faruk Lončarević)
• Brazil, The Way He Looks (dir. Daniel Ribeiro)
• Bulgaria, Bulgarian Rhapsody (dir. Ivan Nitchev)
• Canada, Mommy (dir. Xavier Dolan)
• Chile, To Kill a Man (dir. Alejandro Fernández Almendras)
• China, The Nightingale (dir. Philippe Muyl)
• Colombia, Mateo (dir. Maria Gamboa)
• Costa Rica, Red Princesses (dir. Laura Astorga)
• Croatia, Cowboys (dir. Tomislav Mrsic)
• Cuba, Behavior (dir. Ernesto Daranas)
• Czech Republic, Fair Play (dir. Andrea Sedláčková)
• Denmark, Sorrow and Joy (dir. Nils Malmros)
• Dominican Republic, Cristo Rey (dir. Leticia Tonos)
• Ecuador , Silence in Dreamland (dir. Tito Molina)
• Egypt, The Factory Girl (dir. Mohamed Khan)
• Estonia, Tangerines (dir. Zaza Urushadze)
• Ethiopia, Difret (dir. Zeresenay Berhane Mehari)
• Finland, Concrete Night (dir. Pirjo Honkasalo)
• France, Saint Laurent (dir. Bertrand Bonello)
• Georgia, Corn Island (dir. Giorgi Ovashvili)
• Germany, Beloved Sisters (dir. Dominik Graf)
• Greece, Little England (dir. Pantelis Voulgaris)
• Hong Kong, The Golden Era (dir. Ann Hui)
• Hungary, White God (dir. Kornél Mundruczó)
• Iceland, Life in a Fishbowl (dir. Baldvin Zophoníasson)
• India, Liar's Dice (dir. Geetu Mohandas)
• Indonesia, Soekarno (dir. Hanung Bramantyo)
• Iran, Today (dir. Reza Mirkarimi)
• Iraq, Mardan (dir. Batin Ghobadi)
• Ireland , The Gift (dir. Tommy Collins)
• Israel, Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem (dirs. Ronit Elkabetz and Shlomi Elkabetz)
• Italy, Human Capital (dir. Paolo Virzì)
• Japan, The Light Shines Only There (dir. Mipo Oh)
• Kosovo, Three Windows and a Hanging (dir. Isa Qosja)
• Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanjan Datka: Queen of the Mountains (dir. Sadyk Sher-Niyaz)
• Latvia, Rocks in My Pockets (dir. Signe Baumane)
• Lebanon, Ghadi (dir. Amin Dora)
• Lithuania, The Gambler (dir. Ignas Jonynas)
• Luxembourg, Never Die Young (dir. Pol Cruchten)
• Macedonia, To the Hilt (dir. Stole Popov)
• Malta, Simshar (dir. Rebecca Cremona)
• Mauritania, Timbuktu (dir. Abderrahmane Sissako)
• Mexico, Cantinflas (dir. Sebastian del Amo)
• Moldova, The Unsaved (dir. Igor Cobileanski)
• Montenegro, The Boys from Marx and Engels Street (dir. Nikola Vukcevic)
• Morocco, The Red Moon (dir. Hassan Benjelloun)
• Nepal, Jhola (dir. Yadavkumar Bhattarai)
• Netherlands, Accused (dir. Paula van der Oest)
• New Zealand, The Dead Lands (dir. Toa Fraser)
• Norway, 1001 Grams (dir. Bent Hamer)
• Pakistan, Dukhtar (dir. Afia Nathaniel)
• Palestine, Eyes of a Thief (dir. Najwa Najjar)
• Panama, Invasion (dir. Abner Benaim)
• Peru, The Gospel of the Flesh (dir. Eduardo Mendoza de Echave)
• Philippines, Norte, the End of History (dir. Lav Diaz)
• Poland, Ida (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)
• Portugal, What Now? Remind Me (dir. Joaquim Pinto)
• Romania, The Japanese Dog (dir. Tudor Cristian Jurgiu)
• Russia, Leviathan (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)
• Serbia, See You in Montevideo (dir. Dragan Bjelogrlić)
• Singapore , My Beloved Dearest (dir. Sanif Olek)
• Slovakia, A Step Into the Dark (dir. Miloslav Luther)
• Slovenia, Seduce Me (dir. Marko Santic)
• South Africa, Elelwani (dir. Ntshavheni wa Luruli)
• South Korea, Sea Fog (dir. Shim Sung-bo)
• Spain, Living Is Easy with Eyes Closed (dir. Spanish)
• Sweden, Force Majeure (dir. Ruben Ostlund)
• Switzerland, The Circle (dir. Stefan Haupt)
• Taiwan, Ice Poison (dir. Midi Z)
• Thailand, Teacher's Diary (dir. Nithiwat Tharathorn)
• Turkey, Winter Sleep (dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
• Ukraine, The Guide (dir. Oles Sanin)
• United Kingdom, Little Happiness (dir. Nihat Seven)
• Uruguay, Mr. Kaplan (dir. Álvaro Brechner)
• Venezuela, The Liberator (dir. Alberto Arvelo)

20 animated films put into consideration

1. Big Hero 6
2. The Book of Life
3. The Boxtrolls 3D
4. Cheatin'
5. Giovanni's Island
6. Henry & Me
7. The Hero of Color City
8. How to Train Your Dragon 2
9. Jack and the Cuckoo-Clock Heart
10. Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return
11. The LEGO Movie
12. Minuscule – Valley of the Lost Ants"
13. Mr. Peabody & Sherman
14. Penguins of Madagascar
15. The Pirate Fairy
16. Planes: Fire & Rescue
17. Rio 2
18. Rocks in My Pockets
19. Song of the Sea
20. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

[Doomnaut]

Originally Posted by MrBlonde

Scarlett won't get a nomination for Under the Skin and I will cry.

Maybe at BAFTA or Independent Spirit.

[Kevin Holly]

Joe deserves a bunch of nominations, if for no other reason than the unrelated 1970 film of the same name got brutally shafted.

[chris_sc77]

I'll be rooting for Boyhood and interstellar and captain America 2 .
Found Birdman to be extremely overrated so I will be rooting against that one s o far.