Samsung Exec: Blu-ray Will Be Gone in 5 Years

[Oddiophile]

4,000 resolution TV's will be hitting the market soon.

If the Blu-Ray association can get 200GB disk's working in production and update the players processing to handle 4K, maybe Blu-Ray can go longer then five years.

[Bobby Henderson]

I'm not holding my breath for 4,000 line televisions or movies in 4K format to arrive in home anytime soon.

For one thing, the 4K format is still very rarely used for CGI and digital intermediates of major movie projects. The vast majority are still produced at only 2K. You need a very healthy supply of 4K-based content before you can launch a video format designed to play back such content.

As far as monitors go, I can see high end computer monitors increasing their resolution more and more. Graphics and engineering programs can make great use such monitors. D-SLR cameras are upping their pixel counts and demanding higher resolution displays for editing purposes. On the HDTV front, that "platform" will be set at 1920 X 1080 for quite a long time.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

I'm not holding my breath for 4,000 line televisions or movies in 4K format to arrive in home anytime soon.

For one thing, the 4K format is still very rarely used for CGI and digital intermediates of major movie projects. The vast majority are still produced at only 2K. You need a very healthy supply of 4K-based content before you can launch a video format designed to play back such content.

As far as monitors go, I can see high end computer monitors increasing their resolution more and more. Graphics and engineering programs can make great use such monitors. D-SLR cameras are upping their pixel counts and demanding higher resolution displays for editing purposes. On the HDTV front, that "platform" will be set at 1920 X 1080 for quite a long time.

Pro monitors have 3840x2400 resolution already along with 12bit colour reproduction. They cost a lot of money though...

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

4,000 resolution TV's will be hitting the market soon.

If the Blu-Ray association can get 200GB disk's working in production and update the players processing to handle 4K, maybe Blu-Ray can go longer then five years.

Do you have $30,000 and enough room for a 90"+ TV in your house. That is what you would need for 4k. No point in it until you get to that kind of size, just like 1080p being useless at sizes smaller than 46"...

[Oddiophile]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Do you have $30,000 and enough room for a 90"+ TV in your house. That is what you would need for 4k. No point in it until you get to that kind of size, just like 1080p being useless at sizes smaller than 46"...

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

Not mainstream!

[jangofett]

Oh Snap!

[Branden]

link?

it seems to me that the writer knows nothing of what he's writing about, which is why the article makes no sense. he doesn't realize that OLED and blu-ray are complementary, not competing technologies.

[mjbethancourt]

We may see the beginning of a new format in five years, that's probable, but I don't see how that will kill blu-ray. People didn't stop buying DVD's four years ago just because HD formats got released.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Branden

link?

it seems to me that the writer knows nothing of what he's writing about, which is why the article makes no sense. he doesn't realize that OLED and blu-ray are complementary, not competing technologies.

Link:

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml

I think Samsung is stating the obvious that in 5 years Blu Ray will not be a money maker for them, just as DVD players are not money makers for the major CE vendors today, and they see OLED as a place where they will be making money in 5 years.

As for what's next, of course Sony, Panasonic, Samsung are working on something that will be some form of replacement for Blu Ray as it exists today. They need a steady stream of new tech / product to sell us.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by blu2

Link:

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml

I think Samsung is stating the obvious that in 5 years Blu Ray will not be a money maker for them, just as DVD players are not money makers for the major CE vendors today, and they see OLED as a place where they will be making money in 5 years.

As for what's next, of course Sony, Panasonic, Samsung are working on something that will be some form of replacement for Blu Ray as it exists today. They need a steady stream of new tech / product to sell us.

That's the engine that keeps the wheel turnin'!

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

so because YOU have a 110" screen, you think a product designed for 90"tvs will become mainstream? right......

[Clark Kent]

This article boils down to one executive's opinion. Lots of "executives" also thought HD DVD would be the winning HD format. If he had said dvd would be gone in five years it might have been believable.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

This article boils down to one executive's opinion. Lots of "executives" also thought HD DVD would be the winning HD format. If he had said dvd would be gone in five years it might have been believable.

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by prerich

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

DVD sales are usually in the 20 BILLION DOLLAR range each year. You're saying in a little over a year, DVD is dead? No way.

Can you name any company that wanted to "pull the plug" on a product that generates billions of dollars in sales each year? I can't.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by prerich

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

While I would not mind if this prediction came true you need to look beyond just the enthusiast market.

Besides the hardware prices (which are falling) the following three issues are going to hold back BD to some degree:

1. BD requires a HD television to truly be appreciated. DVD had the advantage of being compatible with nearly every TV installed. HDTV penetration in American homes is still well under 50%.
2. Software price. While I really only purchase BDs anymore, I find myself being more selective and actively searching for the best price available. If the going street prices were more inline with DVD with a small premium then I think there would not be as much backlash against the format.
3. Difficult and expensive to copy. Not that I advocate piracy, but we all know someone who rips every title they get from Netflix. With AACS and BD+ and the expense of the Hardware and blank BD media, I doubt many consumers are willing to lose that ability. Again I frown upon the practice, but many think there is nothing wrong with doing it.

[Robert R1]

All said and done, the writing is on the wall. Right now BR sales are averaging around 7% of DVD. I'm expecting a large Q4 push from BR. This holiday season there's not new hot CE device and BR can be it.

$200 players and sensible prices on the media can really ramp it up and send BR on it's way to eating away DVD's share in large chunks going forward.

Playing attention to Q4 08 and Q1 09 real numbers (not PR pieces!) should give us a very good idea of whether BR is destined for mass market adoption or to remain a niche product.

If Q4 08 and Q1 are hovering between 15-20, then I'd say it's well on it's way. Anything around 10 or below is a disappointment.

[Anthony P]

You're a niche in a niche in a niche. We're talking mass consumer adoption and you jump in with some very high end ethusiast wants?

1) there are a few people that use FP at ~90"+ and not all of them are enthusiasts. FP is easy to buy and relatively cheap

2) who cares how many have screens ~90"+ today? a few years ago the normal person had ~20" TVs, then ~30", then ~40" now it is 50 or 60.... who knows where it will be in a few years.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Robert R1

If Q4 08 and Q1 are hovering between 15-20, then I'd say it's well on it's way. Anything around 10 or below is a disappointment.

Indeed, the point here being that ANYTHING proposed is battling a popular format (DVD). So, I'm still scratching my head how the unspecified replacement will have already buried Blu-ray in five years.

Gary

[Robert R1]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

You're a niche in a niche in a niche. We're talking mass consumer adoption and you jump in with some very high end ethusiast wants?