Phloyd's Bold (?) Predictions for Year End

[JTK]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Anyways, it is fun to stir up the AVS folks with this notion... (am I a bad person?)

Yeah, but we like ya anyways.

[Psiweaver]

The most in interesting thing in all this to me is that while things will continue to improve it will be mainly toshiba doing the research to improve the picture quality unlike with Blu-ray where many ce companies can divy up the cost. I also think that since only one company wants HD DVD drives we will see cost on blu-ray drives fall much faster than HD DVD drives.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

The most in interesting thing in all this to me is that while things will continue to improve it will be mainly toshiba doing the research to improve the picture quality unlike with Blu-ray where many ce companies can divy up the cost. I also think that since only one company wants HD DVD drives we will see cost on blu-ray drives fall much faster than HD DVD drives.

This arguement falls flat for a variety of reasons.

VC-1- Managed by SMPTE and improved by Microsoft.
AVC- Managed by MPGLA and improved by a number of vendors.
Chipset- Broadcom, Intel, and other various suppliers
Optics- Toshiba, NEC and soon to be Lite-On

I think Blu-Rays cost will drop faster but it needs to drop significantly in order to catch up with with HD DVDs natural advantages.

It'll be interesting to see how the PS3 affects component supply and pricing.

[theknub]

natural advantages or subsidized advantages?

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by theknub

natural advantages or subsidized advantages?

Natural advantage in that the numerical aperture and disc structure align with Red Laser DVD. Thus the lens assembly and disc pressing are cheaper and the lack of 50GB DL discs bear this out.

I think Blu-Ray can close the gap but I'm betting that if there are any subsidy on the Toshiba players (which has never been confirmed and was denied by a Toshiba executive) the PS3 will most certainly have more subsidy.

[theknub]

the natural advatage does exist in that they rely upon a technology that has been around for ten-twelve years at least. we seem to be getting down on BD for distributing a completely new technology. while i can easily be wrong, in ten years will we still use DVD technology or might we be talking about BR as the format to replace? generationally, DVD red laser technology is long overdue for a replacement and BR can very well be that. i'm not saying it is, but it has a better chance as a replacement than anything else in the current marketplace.

as far as subsidy, ps3 obviously has not been proven either to have any. and remember, from what most of us have discussed, it's hard to count the ps3 as a player. it seems to be a product that is used for some arguments but readily discounted for others. in this case, if we're talking just standalone players, im willing to bet that toshiba has much more subsidy than the sony, sammy, pioneer and the rest of the gang. but now we're talking a standalone player next to a gaming platform (or a player... take your pick). as you say many times, all that matters really is price. so if the ps3 is the same price, does it matter if it is subsidized?

[BTBuck1]

I was talking to my GM the other day at work. He doesn't know anything about Blu Ray. He asked me if i knew when ps3 was comming out, i told him...he then started saying how it would be the same price as 360, i had to correct him, I also told him it's a blu ray player too. He nodded his head and then said..."So why are they charging $1000 for just a player, who wouldnt buy a ps3 he said."

was funny because he is someone who I would never in a million years think would buy a game console over a stand alone but here he was saying you'd be nuts not to buy a ps3 over a stand alone.

Now I didn't get to explain the decoding in the players and everything, but I don't think he'd care nor do I think the average joe would either. Audio has never been the complaint of DVD, it's mostly been the soft picture on HD sets.

[hmurchison]

What you're going to find is that as a BD player the PS3 is likely going to be an inferior movie player.

Sony had to calm the fears of the CE vendors and the best way is to assure them that the PS3 will increase the opportunity for all but that in direct comparison it will not be up to the quality standards of a standalone BD player.

You heard it here first. The PS3 will be good for the games and it'll be a decent BD player but it's not going to be close to an A1 in overall quality for movies.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

What you're going to find is that as a BD player the PS3 is likely going to be an inferior movie player.

You heard it here first. The PS3 will be good for the games and it'll be a decent BD player but it's not going to be close to an A1 in overall quality for movies.

Can you please explain why you think that the PS3 will be an inferior BD player and what you mean by inferior and 'overall quality'?

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Can you please explain why you think that the PS3 will be an inferior BD player and what you mean by inferior and 'overall quality'?

Like the PS2 when it came out it was a capable DVD player but it quickly was surpassed by dedicated DVD players and quite honestly I don't think it's going to scale well with the advancements in chips from Broadcom and Sigma and others. When you play a DVD in a PS2 nowadays it clearly looks inferior. I expect the same scenario will play out with the PS3. It's optimized for games and the movie performance will quickly be ursurped.

[theknub]

at the time the ps3 came out, it was a solid DVD player. it did what was asked of it and did it pretty well. no one is saying it was gods gift to man, but it did a great job of getting DVD's into homes.

the ps3 will be the same IMO. it will be better than the sammy, but won't be the pioneer elite. it will get BR into the homes of america, people will be able to enjoy it. then, as prices come down, people will purchase a standalone player.

[GaS]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Like the PS2 when it came out it was a capable DVD player but it quickly was surpassed by dedicated DVD players and quite honestly I don't think it's going to scale well with the advancements in chips from Broadcom and Sigma and others. When you play a DVD in a PS2 nowadays it clearly looks inferior. I expect the same scenario will play out with the PS3. It's optimized for games and the movie performance will quickly be ursurped.

Have you seen the PS3's BD output?

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by GaS

Have you seen the PS3's BD output?

Is it necessary for me to see the output to make a "prediction"?

The PS3's architecture will have fundamental architecture differences that are aimed at gaming and then movie playing. We'll see if my thoughts are correct in the future.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Is it necessary for me to see the output to make a "prediction"?

The PS3's architecture will have fundamental architecture differences that are aimed at gaming and then movie playing. We'll see if my thoughts are correct in the future.

come on now. for as much as some of us like to talk about some things being only vapor ware, like to discount product dev, or even a product because it is not based on dvd red laser, it is impossible to predict the output of a movie in a gaming platform.

do you know for a fact that the output will be significantly skewed to gaming?
no

do you know video output (for video) will be less than the sammy, pioneer, sony, etc?
no

do you know even the video will be better than the 360?
no

for as much as some people speak or vapor wear, the ps3 still is. for all we know, the ps3 may be a reference level player. but, we wont know till launch. lets not make to many conclusions till then.

[phloyd]

I think it is ok to make predictions - this is a prediction thread after all.

My understanding of H.264 at least is that there is only one way to decode it - ie all decoded versions of the data should be identical. Add to that a direct digital path to the display and all H.264 players should look identical.

Perhaps similar is true of the VC-1 content? I am not sure.

With the MPEG2 would it be possible to see a slight difference in decode quality even?

However other factors could affect the viability of the box as a BD player - such as throughput and horsepower. If the box does not have dedicated hardware codecs, which seems likely, it may have issues producing fluid motion. Of course whether it will be ok or not for this falls into the wild conjecture category IMHO

I guess it will be a case of we shall see - and the performance as a BD player will largely factor into when I get a standalone box as well...

[Psiweaver]

my guess is that the PS3 will be pretty good for the first couple of years but after that will be crap as better decoding chips come out and better components go into making the blu-ray players.

[phloyd]

bumped to fill in some of the outcomes.

[thunderhawk]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

my guess is that the PS3 will be pretty good for the first couple of years but after that will be crap as better decoding chips come out and better components go into making the blu-ray players.

After those couple of years, price drops will probably make it a lot easier to purchase a standalone player.
I mean, it's way easier for people to buy a $200 player, then a $800 player.

[hmurchison]

My predictions

The PS3 will cause an uptick in movie sales and be very popular. It's quality will be slightly below standard players. It will be loud.

Microsoft will sell a surprising amount of HD DVD add ons for the xbox 360. By mid 2007 they will have integrated HD DVD drives right into the player itself. This is important because the xbox 360 is a Media Centre Extender. Having HD DVD support there is key.

Pioneer, Sony, Philips, and Panasonic will launch their players. The enthusiasts will jump in but the rank and file middle class will merely look at them as very expensive players.

Toshiba will enter with their 2nd generation A2/XA2 players which will be supported by 150 million in marketing and be more plentiful. RCA will announce a 2nd generation unit for $399 with limited distribution.

CES 2007 will have Blu-Ray players come down to $500. $700 will be the going price for Tier 1 vendors like Sony, Panny and Pioneer.

HD DVD will pick up some new partners in China and perhaps Onkyo jumps in with a higher end product. Denon is still a hold out. HD DVD uses CES 2007 as a launch for their recorder initiative. More authoring tools and more PC drives are available for the PC inititive.

By June Lionsgate announces neutrality. By Sept Disney/BVHE announces Neutrality. LG is shipping their BD player and Liteon is shipping their HD DVD player.

Blu-Ray has a lead in movies but smaller studios are focusing more on the lower cost of HD DVD. HD DVD has wooed many adult film studios over. They like the interactivity and web enabled features in addition to lower costs .

We still argue about what format is going to survive.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

We still argue about what format is going to survive.

That last one is a given (unless someone wins soon which I think only AVS fanatics believe anymore).

I promised to not make more predictions but we can keep revisiting this thread for 'predictions proven true or false' and then maybe add more after the end of the year (ie, all my predictions should be met or refuted)...