War will be won by PS3

[Mr.Neutral]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Paramount may allow hd-dvd to stay alive via(com) life support. The PS3 will sell more units this holiday season than hd-dvd players have sold since coming to market.
Hd-dvd exclusives; Universal, probably not for long, and Paramount.
Blu-ray exclusives; Disney, Sony, MGM, Lionsgate, and 20th Century Fox.
Blockbuster will only be renting blu-rays, and Target has stated that the only hd-dvd players that they will carry will be the Xbox 360 add-on unit, while the blu-ray players will get high exposure aisle endcaps.
Paramount can take their kiddie flicks Transformers, and Shrek 3 over to hd-dvd it doesn't bother me.

I think blu-ray does still have the advantage, but I still think its too soon to say things are over or predict any winner.

I am not so sure the PS3 will continue to have much of an affect. I think we've already seen it taper off. Just look at the past few months. Blu-ray got its 2:1 lead and its pretty much kept it since it got it. It hasn't however exceeded it by much. Overall 2:1 is where its been for awhile. During this same time, there has been a ton of positive blu-ray news. Target, Blockbuster..etc. And during all this, still 2:1. Now there's some good HD DVD news. So it just makes me wonder how things will be affected.

The rest of this year will certainly be interesting and will give us all a better indication of where things will go from here.

And just a correction to the above - Blockbuster will rent both Blu-ray's and HD DVD's online. Only new stores carrying HD titles will be blu-ray exclusive. The 250 initial test stores will still carry HD DVD.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by Mr.Neutral

Blu-ray got its 2:1 lead and its pretty much kept it since it got it. It hasn't however exceeded it by much. Overall 2:1 is where its been for awhile.

I disagree with this just based on the number of, what I consider, premium titles coming as Blu-ray exclusive. I'd expect the 2:1 to get much closer to 3:1. I also think there will be massive pull-through this holiday from the PS2 owners that are looking to upgrade and not lose use of all their current stuff. 5 BDs per upgrade!

-CB

[Mr.Neutral]

Originally Posted by CAB

I disagree with this just based on the number of, what I consider, premium titles coming as Blu-ray exclusive. I'd expect the 2:1 to get much closer to 3:1. I also think there will be massive pull-through this holiday from the PS2 owners that are looking to upgrade and not lose use of all their current stuff. 5 BDs per upgrade!

-CB

I'm not sure your disagreeing though You are saying that you expect it to change. I was talking past and present. I think it could change in the future, I'm just saying there's no evidence to back that.

And PS2 owners aren't guaranteed use of their current stuff - the 80GB PS3 is software based backwards compatibility, isn't it?

[jayd]

Originally Posted by Mr.Neutral

I'm not sure your disagreeing though You are saying that you expect it to change. I was talking past and present. I think it could change in the future, I'm just saying there's no evidence to back that.

And PS2 owners aren't guaranteed use of their current stuff - the 80GB PS3 is software based backwards compatibility, isn't it?

It's mainly the older end games from the PS2 that don't work. I can't honestly see someone not buying a PS3 cos they can't play Fantavision or Smugglers Run on the PS3.

[Icemage]

The PS3 has never been aimed to constitute the entire market. Sony certainly doesn't want it to be the premier Blu-ray player; it's too expensive to produce, and does way too many things that most movie watchers don't need.

That said, it still adds its weight to the install base, and it's doing a great job of keeping Blu-ray in the lead for the time being while the BDA gets their rear ends in gear and pushes pricing down to a more mainstream level.