81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Looks like virtually every major retailer is refusing to carry them.

I don't think it'll matter at all

Not half!

Tesco or Carrefour won't take. If WM won't carry it in the US then I doubt Asda will over here.

The only places that will take it are Electronics retailers, and next to a Sony DVD player for $89 why would you buy a no-name player for more money.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

Inception to date, the software lead is about 50%, with the breakdown 61% - 39%. Blu-ray had a huge hardware lead almost immediately after PS3 launch and just lost software support, how does that equate to increasing the lead? The cheap HD DVD players are going to sell, not much, but enough to mean some new consumers will buy software. I can't come up with anything other than the lead shrinks from the YTD 2-1 advantage and settles at or about the ITD number until we get another big announcement. There may be no more really big announcements until the Paramount deal ends.

Chris

With the many different Blu-ray player manufacturers finally selling more stand-alone players than HD-DVD is selling each month (and I'm assuming that will continue) any headway that HD-DVD could be considered to have been making has now been negated. The stand-alone BD player sales now neutralize any new HD-DVD player sales and Blu-ray will extend its BD player advantage by the relentless flow of PS3s into consumer hands. The disparity between BD players and HD players will grow larger and larger each month.

So Chris, if anything the software disparity will continue to grow in Blu-ray's favor. HD-DVD fans will forever be praying for rescue by promised cheap Chinese players. As if HD-DVD isn't already being perceived in the market as "low-end". And that is a reputation that a format does not want to have when it comes to quality video display. Keep your eyes on the trend line for the 8 week moving average. That trend line won't be a favorite of the HD-DVD crowd.

[Neo65]

The movement of the nielsen ratios is mainly a function of the number of releases (especially the value of the releases), with the exception that BD has a base amount that seems to indicate new users buying old releases is much higher than the HD DVD side. Trying to factor in trend lines here doesn't work well. It's following the movie releases and understanding the relative installed base is the key here. So far based on weeks of comparative releases, I suspect the installed base of all BD players vs all HD players is probably just above 2:1, but not significantly higher than that.

The buying of old titles is always an indication of (so far) a healthy number of new buyers of players willing to buy old movies they do not have. With existing owners, the chance of buying a 4 wk old release is much lower, and becomes lower as time passes.

There are exceptions : large sales for example, tend to bring out older owners who will buy a decent old release even if they've seen it before on DVD.\

Things might also change a bit after the Paramount announcement, as people who thought it's already over might hesistate in buying a BD player and wait some more. The end effect is that 2x pricing advantage that BD players have will go down. Maybe to 75% or 50% price premium over HD DVD players.

[navychop]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

Paramount will not even come close to losing 150 million in sales during that 18 month deal.

Think about it.....say by some miracle Transformers would have sold a million copies, Shrek 3 500k, Blades Of Glory 100k, Next 100k....all on Blu-ray. That's about $40 million in lost sales (cost wise since they don't get the retailers margin).

Are you really telling me they are crying over this deal if in fact they got $150 million? The only thing they are worried about I bet is pissing other studios off by prolonging the war.

Yes. And their profit margin may be larger on HD DVD discs due to production costs. But there is another thing they must keep in mind, if they can think that far ahead: After 18 months or so, and if they want to produce Blu-ray discs again- how quickly will they be able to? Blu-ray replicators may have full order books. Who are they likely to give preference to- customers that stuck with them, or someone who cut and ran, and now wants back in? Of course, at the other extreme, maybe there will be plenty of replication capacity, and they can pump out all their titles quickly. I suspect the case will be more like the former scenario.

Originally Posted by Rob Zuber

Due to low volumes, the week to week numbers are dramatically influenced by the specific new releases that week. You're mistaking noise for signal.

Actually, it wasn't low volume. It was high enough to move the YTD figure by a percentage point. Let's not kid ourselves. This will be a prolonged war, and could end with both surviving- or both remaining niche products.

If HD DVDs are so easy to produce, why haven't the HD DVD exclusive studios been pumping out huge numbers of titles? Could we have a surprise awaiting us as the holidays approach? Could the HD DVD camp release more titles in Q4 than have already been announced?

[scott1256ca]

With the many different Blu-ray player manufacturers finally selling more stand-alone players than HD-DVD is selling each month (and I'm assuming that will continue)

Assuming it, meaning the sales lead, continues assumes that the Para/Dream news won't have much affect on player sales. That news will reduce BD player sales and increase HD DVD player sales relative to what it would have been in the absence of the news. The question remains, how much difference. I hope you are correct and the sales lead continues to swing in favour of BD, but it is not a guarantee.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by navychop

Actually, it wasn't low volume. It was high enough to move the YTD figure by a percentage point.

Not to nitpick, but mathematically that doesn't really mean anything. Due to rounding, a one percentage point of movement can mean the actual change was something like 0.0000001%.

enjoy
gandalf

[Blu Titan]

I think that the Blu-Ray media sales will continue to increase at a much faster rate than HD DUD. The PS3 will continue to sell well into the holiday season (especially after the price of the new 80G with motorstorm is reduced). The selection and consequent competition of Blu-Ray standalones will become much more noticeable in the holiday season. Consumers want variety and having to choose between three different Toshiba players is not reassuring. Toshiba has priced their players so low that other manufactures are prohibited from making and selling HD DVD players. The "natural" competition in the Blu-Ray standalone market will lead to better products, and lower prices for the consumer. More standalone players, incresed penetration of the gaming market by the PS3, and better movie releases will assure that the Nielsen's yearly and since inception numbers will continue to increase in BLU-RAY'S favor.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Not to nitpick, but mathematically that doesn't really mean anything. Due to rounding, a one percentage point of movement can mean the actual change was something like 0.0000001%.

enjoy
gandalf

And, in fact, was clearly barely over the line considering the history.

[Proteus]

I re-iterate what I said before... This is _huge_ news for Blu-ray.

You won't see a lot of Blu-ray advertising in media right now for one simple reason: There's nothing to sell.

The smart marketer, at this point, would hold their cards until after Halloween (and let the cards fall on Transformers to see the real numbers to aid in their plan). Market when consumers are a) ready to buy (holidays) and b) you have products flooding the marketplace (15 new players at least).

Each Blu-ray manufacturer will undoubtedly run their own ad campaigns for their units and buy their own end caps and promotional spots based on their own budgets. Having 15+ manufacturers with 15+ marketing budgets is far greater than one manufacturer with a marketing budget (too bad only Toshiba has a budget in the HDDVD camp).

You'll see some Blu-ray tie-ins on movie releases advertised in the short term, but the real money will get spent closer to holiday season. HDDVD will get slaughtered by the buying power of all the major CE manufacturers and studios Blu-ray has.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by scott1256ca

Assuming it, meaning the sales lead, continues assumes that the Para/Dream news won't have much affect on player sales. That news will reduce BD player sales and increase HD DVD player sales relative to what it would have been in the absence of the news. The question remains, how much difference. I hope you are correct and the sales lead continues to swing in favour of BD, but it is not a guarantee.

I think this might be true for standalone sales but not for the PS3. After twelve years of Playstation the brand is so strong that the PS3 will continue to sell regardless of which studios happen to support its disc format. I was trying to suggest earlier that all that's required for greater software market share is that present hardware sales trends continue: ignoring BD standalones, c. 75,000 PS3s per week (and rising) vs how many HD-DVD standalones / Xbox add-ons per week (which are probably not rising at a corresponding rate).

I believe that the phenomenon of the PLAYSTATION 3 (emphasis on the Playstation brand) could insulate Blu-ray from the setback posed by the HD-DVD exclusive studios. The only thing those PS3 owners have to do is occasionally chip in for a rip-roaring BD like 300, Casino Royale, Robocop etc etc (titles which appeal to the native Playstation demographic) and that will give Blu-ray a major software lead well in advance of mass consumer acceptance of either format.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Proteus

You'll see some Blu-ray tie-ins on movie releases advertised in the short term, but the real money will get spent closer to holiday season. HDDVD will get slaughtered by the buying power of all the major CE manufacturers and studios Blu-ray has.

Around Thanksgiving probably (I would assume) ... At least, if HD-DVD are placing TV spots, I'd expect to see Blu-ray adverts on major channels by November.

[navychop]

Yes, I certainly agree, Proteus. Lot's of players, lot's of ads touting Blu-ray. And lot's of Blu-ray titles.

And I also count 15 players announced. But none of the Blu-ray only players that might actually hit the streets this year, and have an MSRP below $1,000, seem to be profile 1.1 compliant. This is not good news. Who wants to pay $1,000 or more dollars for a BD player that will likely be replaced by something better for half the cost in a very few months? I don't expect $200 players anytime soon, but $500 or $600 is a more realistic price for most of us. That's why I'm basically being pushed into buying a PS3, even though I'm not a gamer.

Daewoo DBP-1000/DBP-2000..Q1 2008 maybe..MSRP est: $500-$1,000 ..profile 1.1/2.0: Yes

Denon DVD-3800BDCI............Fall release.......MSRP $2,000..................profile 1.1: Yes Profile 2.0: No

Denon DVD-2500BTC.............Fall release.......MSRP $1,000..................profile 1.1: Yes? Profile 2.0: No

Funai.................................Q1 2008...........all other info UNK

JVC...................................completely unknown

LG BH200...........................Oct release........MSRP $1,000...........HDMI 1.3.....dual format....profile 1.1/2.0: Yes

Loewe...............................Europe, U.S. entry unknown..............HDMI 1.3

Marantz.............................completely unknown

Philips BDP7100...................Europe, U.S. entry unknown

Pioneer BDP-95FD................Oct release........MSRP $1,000...........HDMI 1.3.........................profile 1.1/2.0: UNK

Samsung BD-UP5000............Q4....................MSRP $1050............HDMI 1.3.....dual format....profile 1.1/2.0: prob not

Samsung BD-UP2400............Nov release........MSRP $600..............HDMI 1.3........................profile 1.1/2.0: prob not

Sharp BD-HP20U.................Sept release........MSRP $550.............HDMI 1.3.........................profile 1.1/2.0: prob not

Sony BDP-S2000ES.............Fall release..........MSRP $1300...........HDMI 1.3.........................profile 1.1/2.0: prob not

Sony BDP-S500..................Fall release..........MSRP $700.............HDMI 1.3.........................profile 1.1/2.0: prob not

Have I missed anything above? Can anybody add to it, particularly any info on profile compliance?

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by navychop

...
I don't expect $200 players anytime soon, but $500 or $600 is a more realistic price for most of us. That's why I'm basically being pushed into buying a PS3, even though I'm not a gamer.

I think you will not regret it. Lots of people on this forum have a PS3 and no games. Just make sure you get the Bluetooth remote for an extra $25.

[navychop]

Absolutely. And I think I'll try for the 60GB, as I have no need for MotorStorm (80GB version) and I might put that extra $100 toward BDs or a future larger HDD. Although, I wonder if the 80GB would have enough of a larger future resale value to make the extra $100 worth it. Probably not.

[BluOgre]

Those of you who suddenly think just because this week it was closer as a % than it has been in months need to look at the big picture.

Sales are mainly driven by the New Releases just like DVD. This week had zero new releases for BR and 2 huge titles for HD.

Those of you who are banking on the future to be much like this last week need to look at the releases in Oct. In Oct it doesn't even matter that the HD side has Transformers anymore. BluRay beats them hands down with almost double digit boxoffice movies exclusive to them. You could very well see the break down for that month (even with transformers) be 80:20 in favor of BR. That's how little of title support they have in Oct.

The next 2-3 weeks will probably be 60:40 and then completey change in favor of BR in Oct. If it wasn't for Transformers that number would probably be 90:10 or worse.

[Proteus]

Profile 1.0 vs 1.1 vs 2.0 doesn't matter.

Why?

Because the average consumer doesn't care. To the average person they just look like price points. Why? Because that's all they really are. Pay more, get PiP, pay less and don't get PiP. Whoopy doo... If anyone would make a buying decision between HDDVD and Blu-ray based on PiP of director commentaries (I still don't see why anyone cares about seeing the director talk instead of just hearing it), then my whole faith in humanity has been completely shattered.

Though, I do agree that as 'word gets out' the PS3 will emerge as the best, most future proof, Blu-ray player available at this time.

This can only be good though. As stated the Playstation brand is massive. People often underestimate it which is a mistake. I stand by my statements that the real reason the PS3 hasn't taken off is because the PS2 is not yet obsolete. When PS2 support ends and new games disappear for it... PS3 will _really_ explode.

For the guy a few posts up... Yes, buy the 60gb!!! Get one while you can. The only difference as far as perception is an easily upgradeable harddrive; however, the _real_ difference is the 60gb still has hardware support for PS2 and PS1 games. The 80gb is dependent on software emulation routines (like Euro PS's). If you can get a hardware emulation based console still, DO IT! Upgrading the harddrive later is nothing compared to near 100% compatibility.

[navychop]

Yep. Just bought the 60GB (even though we're not gamers). Checking out of Amazon with their 3 free now, 5 free later program did not work as described on the site, but I did get it thru. Free shipping to boot- although I may not see it until near the end of the month. $499.99 for the player and 3 movies totaling about $80.

But the HDMI cables and HDMI switcher were cheaper via Monoprice. I couldn't believe the prices on Newegg! I'd bought from them before, but these prices today were way high! I got 2 cables and a 3 way switch for much less than the switch alone at Newegg.

I already own 6 BDs. Soon, 10-12 more. And there's a bunch of them on my Xmas list- wife's too!

Thank you.

[The Guardian]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

The next 2-3 weeks will probably be 60:40 and then completey change in favor of BR in Oct. If it wasn't for Transformers that number would probably be 90:10 or worse.

90-10 might be a little extreme, until the war is effectively over anyway

I note for this week on DVD Empire - which normally tilts towards HD DVD - they have BD winning around 66-34, almost back up to the 2:1 ratio. This is probably due to Heroes tailing off a bit?

And the BD releases weren't exactly spectacular this week, I can't wait for October!

[T-Wrecks]

And I'll re-iterate MY x-factor when it comes to market saturation:

1080p TVs.

People need the TV before they are willing to throw cash at a BD player or BD movies. THAT is how you will get saturation.

I have NO IDEA (AS IN SOMEONE NEEDS TO NOTIFY THEM) why Sony hasn't started offering rebates/coupons for higher-end TVs with a PS3 purchase and vica-versa.

Imagine a rebate of $100.00 additional off the PS3 purchase if you buy a Sony/Samsung HD 1080p TV or vica versa.

I know there are many like me out there who are just itching to upgrade from 1080i/720p to 1080p TVs with a size upgrade to take full advantage of blu-ray tech.

I MEAN COME ON SONY. STOP RESTING ON YOUR LAURELS. You and Samsung need to partner up and realize that a marketing triumvirate is what will win this war.

1. TVS/Projectors
2. BD Hardware (PS3 and stand-alone)
3. BD software/movies

For those like me who own a PS3 for its Blu-ray specs? Well, that's the price of being an early adopter. I just hope the price point on TVs continues to fall, because that's when my BD buying spree starts.

[Jamh]

Actually, I've heard of several promotions where you could buy a HDTV and get a PS3 for free. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of a combo deal going on right now.