81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers - Page 136 - Blu-ray Forum

docjan_uk · 10-13-2007, 11:59 AM

urm yeah, considering it comes out December, it's a little pointless using those figures really...

gandley · 10-13-2007, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

urm yeah, considering it comes out December, it's a little pointless using those figures really...

yeah thats true, the preorders tend to jump up in number closer to the release date.

What i wonder is why all these preorders for the Transformers UK hddvd when you can buy it now from the USA, dont they know there format is region free??

aygie · 10-13-2007, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gandley

yeah thats true, the preorders tend to jump up in number closer to the release date.

What i wonder is why all these preorders for the Transformers UK hddvd when you can buy it now from the USA, dont they know there format is region free??

this is true for DVD but the trend i've been seeing is that blu & HD-DVD owners pre-order immediately. Spiderman boxset has been around 800-900 for about 3 three weeks and transformers has been around 400-500 for about 3 weeks.

When you will see the influx in sales is about a week after the release date, now should i put these numbers up as well....

WickyWoo · 10-13-2007, 02:58 PM

I think these facts are inescapeable.

1- Transformers will sell 75-100,000 copies week 1, and will continue to sell well throughout the holiday season, probably reaching 125-150,000 by Christmas (little over half of existing and poor poor fool new owners) similar to 300. They WILL win next week, no matter how many buy-a-thons we have. And all we can say to them is "Hooray for you, you're 1 for 42"

2- Even though it's weeklies will likely match 300, its overall effect will be at best half that because of the onslaught of Blu whose volume will crush it good. Spidey for example will outsell it in 2 weeks by as much as 10-1. Spidey's effect WILL be diminished by the several hundred thousand giveaway copies in PS3s.

3- The big key is going to be new owners picking up key new titles. They're going to buy the Potter box set, or Phoenix, they're not picking up singles. Pirates may be an easier sell as singles

Jish · 10-13-2007, 03:54 PM

The numbers this week surprised me a bit - 5:1 win for FF:ROTSS but only 68:32 win for Blu... I thought about it a bit and came up with a bit of a theory.

Assume there are a certain number of people who buy Blu discs and a certain number of people who buy HD DVD. Forget whether they are PS3 owners and all that...

Let's say that approximately 62% of people who buy HDM buy Blu and approximately 38% buy HD DVD. If there was a week with no releases for either system and we assume on average the same number of people from those two camps will buy in any given week then you would see approximately 62:38.

The week Knocked Up came out - it outsold the next highest Blu disc 4:1 - you would think this would really blow Blu out of the water but we still won the week 54:46. I think this is because almost ALL the people who are in the 38-ish% who buy HD DVD bought Knocked Up that week, and an average number of the 62-ish% in the Blu camp bought a disc.

Basically it didn't swing wildly over to HD DVD for a week because not a lot MORE HD DVDs were sold, it was more a substitution where all the HD DVD buyers bought that disc that week.

It holds true with the FF:ROTSS week. Blu has more players, more buyers, and outsold the next disc 5:1 but only won the week 68:32. This is because almost ALL Blu buyers bought FF but for many it was instead of another disc. Because more than the average number in the universe of buyers bought FF it shifted the average up but not dramatically.

By this theory, for Transformers week ALL the HD DVD fans will buy it, but many will buy it instead of other discs. If you look at the "dvd wars" site you will see that Transformers is far and away #1, but the lower ranked HD DVDs are more than 2x the sales rank of Blu - this is worse than normal for them. People are ordering Transformers instead of other discs.

I think as long as a good number of the Blu owners buy other discs that week it will only shift to like 52:48 Blu at the worst.

What do people think?

Jim L · 10-13-2007, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jish

. . .
By this theory, for Transformers week ALL the HD DVD fans will buy it, but many will buy it instead of other discs. If you look at the "dvd wars" site you will see that Transformers is far and away #1, but the lower ranked HD DVDs are more than 2x the sales rank of Blu - this is worse than normal for them. People are ordering Transformers instead of other discs.

I think as long as a good number of the Blu owners buy other discs that week it will only shift to like 52:48 Blu at the worst.

What do people think?

I think the biggest factors that will help Blu-ray in next week's numbers will be:

The carryover effect of Silver Surfer and other Fox titles tends to be large
The base sales of BD vs HD is much bigger (when no new releases for either)
B1G1 sales at Target, CC, BB, Amazon

We'll just have to see though, won't we?

Terjyn · 10-13-2007, 04:20 PM

Anything less than 67:33 or so will be devastating for HD-DVDers. Well, really anything less than 80:20 or so shows that HD-DVD has no future.

They can talk about small victories and coming back and such all they like, but Toshiba can not lay out 150 million dollars and get just a single 60:40 week.

aphex · 10-13-2007, 07:40 PM

hey so do these weeks start with sales on Monday? or does the sale week start when movies come out, Tuesday?

navychop · 10-13-2007, 08:16 PM

Monday. Home Media Magazine always labels their Nielson reports as "Week ended" and a date that's always a Sunday.

gand41f · 10-14-2007, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim L

I think the biggest factors that will help Blu-ray in next week's numbers will be:

The carryover effect of Silver Surfer and other Fox titles tends to be large
The base sales of BD vs HD is much bigger (when no new releases for either)
B1G1 sales at Target, CC, BB, Amazon

We'll just have to see thought, won't we?

There's one at Amazon too?

enjoy
gandalf

MOONPHASE · 10-14-2007, 08:54 AM

Another helpful one is Best Buy's $14.99 sale

oldmike · 10-14-2007, 09:03 AM

i just fear if they do win the week they make a big PR out of it and as networks love a underdog they do a big "hd-dvd comeing back to win"
or "no end for the format war" crap
last thing we need to have is more ppl coned into backing HD-DVD

Anthony P · 10-14-2007, 04:55 PM

Quote:

I mean, c'mon. If you were responsible for investing millions of dollars in other people's money in that format, how would you spin this at the end of the year? "Hey, we won...a week! This year! And we did it because everybody who's ever going to buy Transformers bought it at the same time!"

Joe, obviously you don't work in marketing and spin

my guess it will be

"HD DVD has gained ground and now it can and has outsold BD X:Y"

WriteSimply · 10-14-2007, 07:08 PM

Lots of places are having a sale. Come Monday, I'll be ordering five discs (four from BVHE) with another five (SPHE) for next week.

Now if only Lionsgate and Fox would have a sale, as well as Playstation games.

I guess this is the BDA fighting back Transformers. Who here says that the BDA is doing nothing?

fuad

GreenScar · 10-14-2007, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Lots of places are having a sale. Come Monday, I'll be ordering five discs (four from BVHE) with another five (SPHE) for next week.

Now if only Lionsgate and Fox would have a sale, as well as Playstation games.

I guess this is the BDA fighting back Transformers. Who here says that the BDA is doing nothing?

fuad

Toys R Us IS having a video game sale (including PS3) Buy 2 get 1.

WriteSimply · 10-14-2007, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonbird

Toys R Us IS having a video game sale (including PS3) Buy 2 get 1.

I already have the two that I want.

I'm waiting for Lego Star Wars, Ratchet & Clank Future and Uncharted. Now if they could only still have the sale until then.

fuad

The Guardian · 10-16-2007, 03:16 AM

So, with Pirates 1 & 2 outselling TF on Amazon... and lots of other BDs selling as well... that might make things more interesting for Transformers trying to win its week?

If everywhere else is selling like Amazon (which is showing an overall drop on all HD DVDs other than Planet Earth and TF, and massive gains for many blu-rays) is it possible that this week would not even be a blip, but remain in the SI or YTD range?

pro-bassoonist · 10-16-2007, 03:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Guardian

If everywhere else is selling like Amazon (which is showing an overall drop on all HD DVDs other than Planet Earth and TF, and massive gains for many blu-rays) is it possible that this week would not even be a blip, but remain in the SI or YTD range?

No yet, it is a long way! You have to remember that because of the lack of region-coding quite a few international HDDVD supporters will be chiming in as well.

As far as I am concerned consistent buying is needed all the way through Saturday. And that is all we could do, the rest is not in our hands.

Pro-B

clarkbar · 10-16-2007, 04:05 PM

Does anyone know if Fry's is included in Nielsen numbers. I always want my purchaces to be counted, so no Wal-Mart.

dialog_gvf · 10-16-2007, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Guardian

So, with Pirates 1 & 2 outselling TF on Amazon... and lots of other BDs selling as well... that might make things more interesting for Transformers trying to win its week?

If everywhere else is selling like Amazon (which is showing an overall drop on all HD DVDs other than Planet Earth and TF, and massive gains for many blu-rays) is it possible that this week would not even be a blip, but remain in the SI or YTD range?

Transformers is now ahead.

But 17 BD titles are currently ahead of HD DVD's #2 (Planet Earth at DVD #66). And HD DVD #3 (Top Gun) is DVD #227. That's pretty terrible. The entire HD DVD quarter is riding on this one title.

Gary

10-13-2007, 03:54 PM	#2705
Jish Member Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:454	Why I don't think HD DVD will win Transformers week... The numbers this week surprised me a bit - 5:1 win for FF:ROTSS but only 68:32 win for Blu... I thought about it a bit and came up with a bit of a theory. Assume there are a certain number of people who buy Blu discs and a certain number of people who buy HD DVD. Forget whether they are PS3 owners and all that... Let's say that approximately 62% of people who buy HDM buy Blu and approximately 38% buy HD DVD. If there was a week with no releases for either system and we assume on average the same number of people from those two camps will buy in any given week then you would see approximately 62:38. The week Knocked Up came out - it outsold the next highest Blu disc 4:1 - you would think this would really blow Blu out of the water but we still won the week 54:46. I think this is because almost ALL the people who are in the 38-ish% who buy HD DVD bought Knocked Up that week, and an average number of the 62-ish% in the Blu camp bought a disc. Basically it didn't swing wildly over to HD DVD for a week because not a lot MORE HD DVDs were sold, it was more a substitution where all the HD DVD buyers bought that disc that week. It holds true with the FF:ROTSS week. Blu has more players, more buyers, and outsold the next disc 5:1 but only won the week 68:32. This is because almost ALL Blu buyers bought FF but for many it was instead of another disc. Because more than the average number in the universe of buyers bought FF it shifted the average up but not dramatically. By this theory, for Transformers week ALL the HD DVD fans will buy it, but many will buy it instead of other discs. If you look at the "dvd wars" site you will see that Transformers is far and away #1, but the lower ranked HD DVDs are more than 2x the sales rank of Blu - this is worse than normal for them. People are ordering Transformers instead of other discs. I think as long as a good number of the Blu owners buy other discs that week it will only shift to like 52:48 Blu at the worst. What do people think?

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10-13-2007, 11:59 AM	#2701
docjan_uk Active Member Member since:Jun 2007 Blu-ray reviews:5	urm yeah, considering it comes out December, it's a little pointless using those figures really...

10-13-2007, 02:58 PM	#2704
WickyWoo Blu-ray Champion Member since:May 2007 Trading Score:2	I think these facts are inescapeable. 1- Transformers will sell 75-100,000 copies week 1, and will continue to sell well throughout the holiday season, probably reaching 125-150,000 by Christmas (little over half of existing and poor poor fool new owners) similar to 300. They WILL win next week, no matter how many buy-a-thons we have. And all we can say to them is "Hooray for you, you're 1 for 42" 2- Even though it's weeklies will likely match 300, its overall effect will be at best half that because of the onslaught of Blu whose volume will crush it good. Spidey for example will outsell it in 2 weeks by as much as 10-1. Spidey's effect WILL be diminished by the several hundred thousand giveaway copies in PS3s. 3- The big key is going to be new owners picking up key new titles. They're going to buy the Potter box set, or Phoenix, they're not picking up singles. Pirates may be an easier sell as singles

10-13-2007, 04:20 PM	#2707
Terjyn Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:122	Anything less than 67:33 or so will be devastating for HD-DVDers. Well, really anything less than 80:20 or so shows that HD-DVD has no future. They can talk about small victories and coming back and such all they like, but Toshiba can not lay out 150 million dollars and get just a single 60:40 week.

10-13-2007, 07:40 PM	#2708
aphex Special Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Scottsdale Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:4	hey so do these weeks start with sales on Monday? or does the sale week start when movies come out, Tuesday?

10-13-2007, 08:16 PM	#2709
navychop Active Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Northern VA	Monday. Home Media Magazine always labels their Nielson reports as "Week ended" and a date that's always a Sunday.

10-14-2007, 08:54 AM	#2711
MOONPHASE Blu-ray Duke Top contributor Member since:Jun 2007 Location:California 4K collection:8 Blu-ray collection:520 DVD collection:820 Blu-ray reviews:18 Trading Score:29	Another helpful one is Best Buy's $14.99 sale

10-14-2007, 09:03 AM	#2712
oldmike Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007	i just fear if they do win the week they make a big PR out of it and as networks love a underdog they do a big "hd-dvd comeing back to win" or "no end for the format war" crap last thing we need to have is more ppl coned into backing HD-DVD

10-14-2007, 07:08 PM	#2714
WriteSimply Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia	Lots of places are having a sale. Come Monday, I'll be ordering five discs (four from BVHE) with another five (SPHE) for next week. Now if only Lionsgate and Fox would have a sale, as well as Playstation games. I guess this is the BDA fighting back Transformers. Who here says that the BDA is doing nothing? fuad

10-16-2007, 03:16 AM	#2717
The Guardian Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Kitchener, ON Blu-ray collection:9 Trading Score:1	So, with Pirates 1 & 2 outselling TF on Amazon... and lots of other BDs selling as well... that might make things more interesting for Transformers trying to win its week? If everywhere else is selling like Amazon (which is showing an overall drop on all HD DVDs other than Planet Earth and TF, and massive gains for many blu-rays) is it possible that this week would not even be a blip, but remain in the SI or YTD range?

10-16-2007, 04:05 PM	#2719
clarkbar Active Member Top contributor Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Chandler, AZ 4K collection:186 Blu-ray collection:1253 DVD collection:19 MA collection:362 Digital collection:158 iTunes collection:124	Does anyone know if Fry's is included in Nielsen numbers. I always want my purchaces to be counted, so no Wal-Mart.

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