I honestly do not believe Warner cares about the Nielsen numbers. The fact that Pirates 3, Die Hard 4 and Spiderman 3 are exclusive to Blu-ray and drive winning Nielsen numbers has no direct benefit to Warner at all. What they do care about is the indirect effect that those exclusives have in terms of driving player sales, and those player sales driving sales of Warner movies. Warner knows exactly how many copies of its own movies it's selling, it doesn't need Nielsen for that. So personally I think it isn't worth getting too obsessed over the overall Nielsen numbers, it's the Warner ratios within them that are the real point of interest to us.
What we have with the Toshiba firesales are opportunities for existing HD DVD owners to expand their software library through the accompanying 5, 10, or 15 free instant movie offer.
I do not believe that HD DVD are gaining new customers. The recent uptick in HD DVD sales is not self-sustaining.
Through the PS3, Blu-ray has a much larger customer base that will grow as more PS3 owners attach HDTVs to their PS3s.
Having Blu-ray players prices below $299 will help drive consumer adoption. Having HD DVD out of the way will remove consumer confusion and allow for exponential consumer adoption. The odds of consumer adoption of an HD packaged media format are grim if WB goes HD DVD. On the merits alone, WB should go Blu-ray.
How am I not supporting it? I am concerned that the victory was closer then normal lately. I believe for blu to win, we need a blow out victory every single week. I think the last year is a wash, it comes down to the last 8 weeks of this year. It's basically cheap $199 players versus a stronger catalog on blu now. If Warner gets any indication that these cheap players are helping to increase HD Dud's traction, I believe it taints the possibility of them going blu exclusive. They don't want to pick a winner in a close ball game, they want 100% assurance that whomever they pick will win.
From what has been posted regarding Warner and their "reviewing" 4th Quarter sales, IMO the powers at Warner are well aware of everything transpiring in the format war. That means not only how well all high-def titles are selling but also how they are being sold whether it is full MSRP pricing or through a BOGO sale. (Maybe the current Amazon BOGO is a test to see how well their blu titles sell at lower costs)
Also for their evaluation purposes I'm sure they are aware that Toshiba dumped their unsold discontinued low-end players below cost to compete against some strong blu-only exclusive titles and that continued the selling of HD-DVD players at that price is not sustainable. In contrast PS3 and blu player sales and profitablity at their current prices are sustainable and are continuing.
Warner also is seeing that retailers are willing to give more and more selling space on their sales floors and inventory for Blu-ray.
Warner has shown they are concerned about sales. In the near future they will have to make one of the following choices:
Go HD-DVD exclusive - with this option they will loose out on where 2/3's of their high-def sales have been to-date. This doesn't end the format war as it will be stalemated.
Remain neutral - keep the status quo and let the format war continue for the time being. Consumers will contine to sit on the sidelines for a little longer time delaying the mass adoptation a single high-def format.
Go Blu-ray exclusive - ends the format war quicker, consumers move en masse to Blu, all studios now have a new disc media to sell their new movies and resell their catalog titles on.
Blu-ray's is in a "win" best case scenario, "tie" worst case with the odds being on win. HD-DVD is in a "tie" for its best and "loose" worst case with the odds being on going the way of 8-tracks and betamax. If Warner, as you say, wants a 100% assurance of a win, what way do you think they will go?
Monthly chart from launch to November 2007. Nice Q4 move to Blu-ray so far.
Interesting chart.
As I've said before, everyone goes crazy with "HD DVD is dead" posts whenever there is a great week. And, we see the hand wringing come out whenever the week is significantly less than the week before.
The chart above shows Blu-ray has gained the last two months, post Paramount. Not huge, but a definite gain.
I honestly do not believe Warner cares about the Nielsen numbers. The fact that Pirates 3, Die Hard 4 and Spiderman 3 are exclusive to Blu-ray and drive winning Nielsen numbers has no direct benefit to Warner at all. What they do care about is the indirect effect that those exclusives have in terms of driving player sales, and those player sales driving sales of Warner movies. Warner knows exactly how many copies of its own movies it's selling, it doesn't need Nielsen for that. So personally I think it isn't worth getting too obsessed over the overall Nielsen numbers, it's the Warner ratios within them that are the real point of interest to us.
I agree with you 100%. I would also like to add that I believe Warner is looking at the actual B&M retail shelves also. Most retailers have 2/3 (or more) of their HDM shelf space dedicated to Blu-ray already. Retail is where the product actually sells. More Blu shelf space equates to a retailer carrying more of Warner's Blu-ray titles than Warner's HD-DVD titles. If Warner were to announce exclusivity to HD-DVD, retail shelf space for HD-DVD would not expand overnight.
I believe that Warner is weighing the pros/cons of a higher red $$$ exclusivity offer vs. the $$$ effect that going Blu exclusive would have on the HD market.
Choice 1:
The safe choice for the near future would be to stay Neutral a bit longer to see how the market shakes out over Q1 2008, possibly even Q2.
Choice 2:
Here's the really interesting question: How much [more] money would it take from the red camp to go exclusive? This is the very real possibility that I see Warner execs debating over. The HD DVD backers right now are probably willing to throw SO MUCH money at them, that, indeed, they have to look at the tremendous short-term benefits over the long-term set-backs of stalling HD adoption by consumers if they split the format war down the middle. It's not a matter of "if" the deal has been offered. Rather, I see it as Warner waiting to see if Blu-ray can build up a substantial-enough software advantage to vindicate the decision of NOT taking such a sweet deal and staying neutral or going Blu. That is what my instincts are telling me.
I think the HD-DVD camp has put such a sweet offer on the table, that Warner is waiting to see what happens.
Interestingly, I can see the reds making a very lucrative $$$ offer that obligates Warner to stay format neutral for x amount of months/years. Why would Warner not seriously consider that?
Choice 3:
Warner goes Blu and loses its red consumers. The hope is this action ends the format war and everyone's profits skyrocket in the long term.
What's the source for this data/chart? Or is this your own chart and did you simply average the weekly data (which would not necessarily be accurate)?
Look at the legend. It says "based on data from Nielsen Videoscan."
The chart is based on 100 points of market share, and not absolute numbers. Unfortunately, we don't have absolute numbers which would be interesting to see how many copies of what was sold.
I'll not contribute to the Warner talk because I believe their execs are smart enough.
It could be that Warner is merely using the red camp to force Blu to up the ante... for all anyone knows they intended to go Blu all the way but this way they can get the best deal possible to do what they want to do anyway.
It would be like being really tired, but suckering someone into paying you to go to sleep
It could be that Warner is merely using the red camp to force Blu to up the ante... for all anyone knows they intended to go Blu all the way but this way they can get the best deal possible to do what they want to do anyway.
It would be like being really tired, but suckering someone into paying you to go to sleep
This is a new "Theory", but very logical and NOT out of the question. However, we are all kinda driving ourselves a little nutty. I have never seen so many responses in this thread, like we have experienced the last three days.
Look at the legend. It says "based on data from Nielsen Videoscan."
The chart is based on 100 points of market share, and not absolute numbers. Unfortunately, we don't have absolute numbers which would be interesting to see how many copies of what was sold.
fuad
I saw the legend. I wanted to know if this was actual monthly share as tabulated by Nielsen or someone's interpretation/averaging of weekly data.
It's fine to throw up a chart, but unless the source data is understood it's not terribly useful.
I saw the legend. I wanted to know if this was actual monthly share as tabulated by Nielsen or someone's interpretation/averaging of weekly data.
It's fine to throw up a chart, but unless the source data is understood it's not terribly useful.
You do have a point. If it is merely an averaging of the weekly numbers it wouldn't be accurate. But, that doesn't work out by either week-ending or reporting averages (Oct: 62 and Nov: 67)
DEC. 7 | High-def hardware achieved huge Black Friday gains, but still lags behind the sales pace of standard-definition DVD players.
HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc stand-alone players sold 57,000 units during the week ended Nov. 24, the day marking the official kick-off to the holiday season. That contrasts to the 600,000 units sold of standard-def DVD players, according to market analyst DisplaySearch.
DisplaySearch released these figures during a Black Friday Webinar on Friday.
HD DVD commanded the lion’s share of unit sales for stand-alone high-def disc players, scoring a 62% unit share; Blu-ray held 37%. Due to higher price points, Blu-ray hardware cornered 52% of the revenue; HD DVD, 47%.
Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD DVD market research at DisplaySearch, said that HD DVD’s retail pricing, which on average was 50% cheaper than Blu-ray stand-alones, spurred its Black Friday sales for the format. The most popular high-def models were Toshiba’s HD-A3, which many retailers sold for $199, and the Sony and Samsung Blu-ray players and PS3 model that sold for $399.
Each format significantly hiked its sales from week directly preceding the Black Friday frame. HD DVD unit sales jumped 454%; Blu-ray, up 189%. In revenue, HD DVD was up 272%; Blu-ray, up 176%.
Due to strong promotion around its new $399 40GB model, PlayStation 3 sold between 160,000 and 170,000 units, DisplaySearch estimates.
HD DVD might have sold more units during the Black Friday period, but the Blu-ray Disc Assn. nevertheless said it hit a new milestone—2.7 million players sold since launch—over the period. The figure encompasses both Blu-ray-capable gaming devices and Blu-ray set-top players, but the Blu-rayA declined to break down sales.
The HD DVD camp earlier said its total sales of set-top players and gaming devices reached 750,000 units following widespread holiday retail sales, notably including $99-priced players at Wal-Mart and Best Buy.
The BDA last week also trumpeted its continuing lead in Blu-ray software sales, which in the weeks leading up to Black Friday had been outpacing HD DVD titles by a two-to-one ratio. During the Black Friday period, Blu-ray titles made up 72.6% of all high-def purchases, with HD DVD totaling 27.4%, according to Nielsen/VideoScan figures cited by BDA.
According to the Blu-ray camp, total Blu-ray disc sales in the U.S. since launch topped 4 million units in November, about the same time HD DVD software sales passed just 2.5 million units.
DisplaySearch predicts Black Friday trends will continue through the rest of the year. By the end of 2007, 678,000 HD DVD stand-alones will have shipped into retail since launch, it said. Blu-ray players will have shipped 461,000 units. PS3s will stand at 2.5 million units, and Xbox 360 HD DVD drive at 270,000 units.
Keeping with previous predictions, DisplaySearch estimates that 4.76 million high-def stand-alones will have shipped to retail by year-end 2008.
Based on the numbers provided in the article:
w/e 11/24 stand-alone sales
Total sales: 57,000
Sales Ratio: 62:37
HD DVD: 35,340
Blu-ray: 21,090
w/e 11/17 stand-alone sales*
Total Sales: 13,677
Sales Ratio: 53:47
HD DVD: 6,379
Blu-ray: 7,298
* [Numbers derived from percentage increase in stand-alone sales from previous week reported in the article (HD DVD - 454% and Blu-ray - 189%)]
Very interesting to see that blu-ray stand-alones outsold HD DVD stand-alones prior to Black Friday week. It also shows just how weak HD DVD stand-alone sales are without very aggresive promotional pricing.
Blu-ray sales increased 189% with revenue up 176% while HD DVD sales increased 454% while revenue was only up 272% indicating heavy discounting as compared to blu-ray.
Combine that with strong PS3 sales (165,000) with an approximate BD user rate of between 30-40% (49,500 - 66,000) and blu-ray is starting to pull away from HD DVD again despite their very aggresive pricing. I think these numbers look very favourable for Warner to choose blu-ray over HD DVD if the decision is indeed to be made soon.
Last edited by Dave J; 12-09-2007 at 09:58 AM.
Reason: Corrected mathematical error
* [Numbers derived from percentage increase in stand-alone sales from previous week reported in the article (HD DVD - 454% and Blu-ray - 189%)]
Thanks. I hadn't realized that Blu-ray outsold HD DVD for hardware for the week before based on the numbers in the article. Good point. As far as the numbers though, I took it that sales were up that percentage. So, Blu-ray would have had to have been 2.89 times the previous week and HD DVD 5.54 times the previous week, to be up those percentages. Your numbers only had Blu-ray up 89%. They might have a made a mistake in the article though and it might have been 89% up and 354% up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave J
It also shows just how weak HD DVD stand-alone sales are without very aggresive promotional pricing.
I also think this is something Warner should be taking a look at. Warner said they were going to watch Q4 and if those numbers for players sold are right, I just don't see that being viewed as a positive for HD DVD in Warner's eyes. Q4 is the time the HD DVD camp has been pointing to for months as the time they would shine and those player sales don't look that good to me. Not that the Blu-ray standalone sales are setting the world on fire either, but Blu-ray had the lead for how well discs were selling going into Q4 and it has been HD DVD's job to change the status quo. With Warner pretty much saying that consumers weren't making a decision and they felt like they might need to make a move themselves to get things to change, I think the low standalone sales hurt HD DVD as far as that goes a lot more than they hurt Blu-ray. We pretty much know here that if neither side sold any standalones Blu-ray would kill HD DVD even more, given the PS3 (which way more than holds its own against the XBOX360 add-on), so HD DVD is the one that most needs those standalone sales to go to another level.
I wonder about Europe where the PS3 is continuing to sell. If HD DVD only sold maybe 7k players in the whole US the week before Black Friday week, they probably aren't doing very well for standalone player sales in Europe.
Thanks. I hadn't realized that Blu-ray outsold HD DVD for hardware for the week before based on the numbers in the article. Good point. As far as the numbers though, I took it that sales were up that percentage. So, Blu-ray would have had to have been 2.89 times the previous week and HD DVD 5.54 times the previous week, to be up those percentages. Your numbers only had Blu-ray up 89%. They might have a made a mistake in the article though and it might have been 89% up and 354% up.
Ah yes, you are correct. The article is stating sales increased 454% and 189% rather than sales were 454% and 189% that of the previous week.
So, the numbers should be:
w/e 11/17 stand-alone sales*
Total Sales: 13,677
Sales Ratio: 53:47
HD DVD: 6,379
Blu-ray: 7,298
What's the source for this data/chart? Or is this your own chart and did you simply average the weekly data (which would not necessarily be accurate)?
Nielsen last published a monthly chart in June (for data up to the end of May).
We can compare what they published Jan - May with what I originally estimated based on Nielsen weekly data. The chart above has been corrected with published Nielsen monthly data where known (ie: up to May 2007).
The left figure is Nielsen then my estimate followed by the error value (only Blu-ray data is shown)
All countries
Argentina
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Chile
China
Colombia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
Denmark
Finland
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
India
Latvia
Lithuania
Malaysia
New Zealand
Norway
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
Linear Mode
