Microsoft and Apple's digital download war

[partridge]

Listen, ANYONE claiming that downloads are going to kill physical media any time soon is wrong.

Downloaded music sales have yet to match CD sales, they're not expected to until at least 2009. Even when they do, is the music industry going to stop making and selling CDs? Of course not.

With music we are talking very small file sizes, hardly any time to download at all. Yet the CD is alive and well. Given this, how on Earth are the DVD and blu-ray discs at risk? They are not.

Physical discs will be with us for a very long time; media companies aren't going to kill off a revenue stream until, like VHS, it is soundly beaten by something else. However, with VHS and DVD one type of player was replaced by another, it was a like for like swap.

The online distribution of movies is entirely dependent on the internet, which is nowhere near ready to takeover from standalone players. For years now experts have predicted internet meltdown from the increase in video over the net. What has happened to deal with that? Nothing. Add to that, more and more ISPs offer capped monthly allowances to deliberately limit the amount of data consumers access each month.

The blu-ray disc is the future for movies at home. There are alternatives, but these are niche and of no consequence or threat.

The reason MS and Apple push these online services is not because they are the future, not because they are any good (in no way do they match the image and sound quality of a DVD), but simply because the internet is their market and they both need new revenue streams.