Phloyd's Bold (?) Predictions for Year End

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phloyd

That is interesting. Any clues as to when? Before the end of the year?

I also cannot imagine that they will continue to sell the A1 in the US if a new 'not a PC in a box' player is being made.

My guess is that it will be the same price but with more (some?) profit this time.

Haven't heard a peep since this interview hit. Should be next month that we see some announcements hopefully. One of the reasons why I stated that another CE vendor will jump into the fray is this. I'm "guessing" that Toshiba will allow some other vendor to rebage the Euro player and seel it here. I think Toshiba will allow their sales of the A1 to plummet and if it truly is costing them to ship this isn't a bad idea. That's my quartly prognostication here.

Originally Posted by Longshot

Don't you just love how the HD DVD fanboys claim the XBOX add on will sell like hotcakes but the PS3 will have absolutely no impact on the format war because no-one uses a game console for watching movies!

These idiots always put a smile on my face.

I think the initial sales will spike and then the HD DVD addon will have fairly low but consistent sales for the lifecycle of the product. I just don't see there being ongoing demand for this addon. We'll see if I'm right or wrong.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Longshot

Don't you just love how the HD DVD fanboys claim the XBOX add on will sell like hotcakes but the PS3 will have absolutely no impact on the format war because no-one uses a game console for watching movies!

These idiots always put a smile on my face.

I'm pretty F'n one sided with the whole format thing, and even I am 99% positive to be buying an HDDVD add on for my 360. If for universal & weinstein titles only, it's worth it to me. Since I already have a 360...why the heck not?

I think the same rational could be used for the HDDVD crowd who will also be buying a PS3....if only to buy HD discs not available on HDDVD (which is alot: Sony, MGM, Disney,Buenavista, Miramax, Touchstone, Columbia, tristar, Fox, MGM, Lionsgate. You won't get these movies on HDDVD (not anytime soon anyways), and even if they don't look as good as VC-1 encoded HDDVD's they still look night & day better than DVD. The PQ problems have already started to dissapear and I feal as time goes on, better techniques will be used to give the consumer results we are looking for. (ROBOCOP, seems to be the straw that broke the camels back) we'll see!

I wanna have the best of both worlds, and while I will largely support Blu-Ray, I want the ability to have Universal/Weinstein titles in High Def too. And the money's been spent on the 360, and should the add on be only $200 or less, thats a drop in the bucket to get my Fast & the Furious, Ridick, Van Helsing and Jurassic parks in High Def...and then some!

[Longshot]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

I'm pretty F'n one sided with the whole format thing, and even I am 99% positive to be buying an HDDVD add on for my 360. If for universal & weinstein titles only, it's worth it to me. Since I already have a 360...why the heck not?

I think the same rational could be used for the HDDVD crowd who will also be buying a PS3....if only to buy HD discs not available on HDDVD (which is alot: Sony, MGM, Disney,Buenavista, Miramax, Touchstone, Columbia, tristar, Fox, MGM, Lionsgate. You won't get these movies on HDDVD (not anytime soon anyways), and even if they don't look as good as VC-1 encoded HDDVD's they still look night & day better than DVD. The PQ problems have already started to dissapear and I feal as time goes on, better techniques will be used to give the consumer results we are looking for. (ROBOCOP, seems to be the straw that broke the camels back) we'll see!

I wanna have the best of both worlds, and while I will largely support Blu-Ray, I want the ability to have Universal/Weinstein titles in High Def too. And the money's been spent on the 360, and should the add on be only $200 or less, thats a drop in the bucket to get my Fast & the Furious, Ridick, Van Helsing and Jurassic parks in High Def...and then some!

Brian,

Your comments are perfectly reasonable. I would do the same. My problem is with the HD DVD zealots who keep popooing the impact of the PS3 while talking out of their ass about how big an impact the 360 add on willl have.

[Applefiend]

Clerks 2 is coming out on weinstein isn't it? Damn...

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Longshot

Brian,

Your comments are perfectly reasonable. I would do the same. My problem is with the HD DVD zealots who keep popooing the impact of the PS3 while talking out of their ass about how big an impact the 360 add on willl have.

I think it's amazing they think the PS3 will have little to no impact on the adoption of Blu Ray...

IMO PS3 is the flagship for the format.

If PS3 fails to launch Blu-Ray...than Blu Ray has no hope...and if Blu Ray has no hope then HDDVD really has no hope.

But fear not, I'm sure both formats will be around for a while with DVD.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Longshot

Brian,

Your comments are perfectly reasonable. I would do the same. My problem is with the HD DVD zealots who keep popooing the impact of the PS3 while talking out of their ass about how big an impact the 360 add on willl have.

I have honestly never seen ANY piece of consumer electronics EVER receive the amount of FUD, propoganda, and months of misinformation directed against it so deliberatley like the PS3 has been.

Ya think someone's nervous?

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by JTK

I have honestly never seen ANY piece of consumer electronics EVER receive the amount of FUD, propoganda, and months of misinformation directed against it so deliberatley like the PS3 has been.

Ya think someone's nervous?

Just a bit.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Regardless of whether the EU gets involved or not the current state of Studio support is not going to exist as is for much longer. Given a decent amount of sales the longer some studios like BA/Disney and Lionsgate and Fox hold out the more fishy it looks.

Personally I don't see this happening any time soon.

Fox and Disney chose Bluray it seems largely due to better content protection.

These two also chose Divx over DVD for the same kinds of reasons. And that format was more hated than Bluray. Does anyone recall how long they supported Divx over DVD? It was at least some number of months, for a format that was just ludicrous.

In any case, they will only change if they see sales of their discs flounder on the Bluray format. Since they have not released anything yet, I think this will all be some ways off - probably mid next year - before they even consider cutting their losses and running with HD DVD.

Just my opinion...

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Personally I don't see this happening any time soon.

Fox and Disney chose Bluray it seems largely due to better content protection.

These two also chose Divx over DVD for the same kinds of reasons. And that format was more hated than Bluray. Does anyone recall how long they supported Divx over DVD? It was at least some number of months, for a format that was just ludicrous.

In any case, they will only change if they see sales of their discs flounder on the Bluray format. Since they have not released anything yet, I think this will all be some ways off - probably mid next year - before they even consider cutting their losses and running with HD DVD.

Just my opinion...

Universal was right along side Fox & Disney in that Format tiff (wasn't even a war or a battle) Remember Jurassic park didn't come out on DVD until late 2000.

Even if sales "Flounder" on Blu Ray that doesn't mean they'll go HDDVD, they may just hold off on all HD formats if that happens, losing confidence in the market all together and sticking with DVD.

We'll see.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Personally I don't see this happening any time soon.

<snip>
In any case, they will only change if they see sales of their discs flounder on the Bluray format. Since they have not released anything yet, I think this will all be some ways off - probably mid next year - before they even consider cutting their losses and running with HD DVD.

Just my opinion...

Oh definitely. I could see Fox being stubborn and not shipping any HD DVD titles until 2008 if both formats are still battling by then. Disney "will" fall before xmas 2007 by then there will be over a million HD DVD and Blu-Ray players in each respective format. That's too much money to pass up for most companies and Iger has already stated that "he" thought they'd end up supporting HD DVD. Fox is far more negative on HD DVD and their websites like IGN contain HD DVD bashing articles so I don't expect them to come around until Blu-Ray is on life support.

Lionsgate will probably come across as well. The studios have tried to prevent the war but it's clear that Toshiba has done enough to warrant the right to exist and Sony has enough studio/CE support to warrant the right to exist. There will be no quick victories.

[phloyd]

Hmm... someone has been reading this thread and stealing my ideas heheh.

HD Beat Why Bluray Will Win

hm - it would be interesting to see what level of install base of HD DVD players would be needed for studios to consider doing both formats in order to lose potential profit. Of course they would only want to consider how many HD DVD player owners do not have the aboility to play Bluray discs. Which may not be all that many by the end of 2007...?

[BTBuck1]

^ I share the same opinions as the writer on that link.

[marzetta7]

Indeed, as do I. The PS3 coupled with the plethora of standalone players from the major players in the CE market will undoubtedly be the proverbial nail in HD DVD's coffin...just wait and see.

[phloyd]

In replying to something on the AVSForum I realised something interesting...

It seems that HD DVD is already maxed out. Aside from the add on for XBox 360 (muted yay) they have nothing new going on at all. They are already at max disc size, nobody else seems to be making players... all studios supporting it (major) are releasing discs...

While the BD haters seem to enjoy telling BD supporters that all the potential is in the future, perhaps they are nervous because HD DVD has reached its potential already and BD has more growth to come.

Just a thought

[hmurchison]

HD DVD is in no way maxed out. In fact today's movies are shipping with VC-1 encoded with a less sophisticated encoder than what Microsoft is shipping today. This old encoder was able maintain excellent quality in Serenity at only 19GB or provide 15GB single layer discs of excellent quality like ATL and Rumor Has It.

The new encoder should be able to maintain this quality at about 4Mbps lower avg bitrate if Amir is correct. So I expect that some releases next year for both platforms will look damn good at about 12-14Mbps avg instead of today's 16-18 with high peaks.

HD DVD has limitations but the size of storage isn't one. The bandwidth issue is more troubling IMO.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by phloyd

In replying to something on the AVSForum I realised something interesting...

It seems that HD DVD is already maxed out.

Key word bolded.

Once again folks: Some of you are missing a word and concept from all of this: Evolution.

Compare DVD's to when they launched vs. where they are now.

If either one, or both of these new HD formats is around for the next 5-10 years, do any of you REALLY think that you will not see things evolve with them?

We're barely out of the starting gates, folks!

[zombie]

Originally Posted by JTK

Key word bolded.

Once again folks: Some of you are missing a word and concept from all of this: Evolution.

Compare DVD's to when they launched vs. where they are now.

If either one, or both of these new HD formats is around for the next 5-10 years, do any of you REALLY think that you will not see things evolve with them?

We're barely out of the starting gates, folks!

Exactly! Both formats will evolve to have much better quality than what you see now. Count on it!!

[Jazar]

"Content is King"

That's all you need to know. He who has the most titles wins.

[phloyd]

I agree that they should be able to compress more with HD DVD, though the bandwidth and disc size would appear to be fixed (unless they work 45 GB discs in and render all our A1 players useless for them??).

I also agree that the bandwidth is more of an issue than the disc size.

I think that the evolution for both formats will be in the interactivity.

To say that the image quality will improve is akin to saying it is not good enough And we all know that the image quality on HD DVD is perfect

Anyways, it is fun to stir up the AVS folks with this notion... (am I a bad person?)

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

HD DVD is in no way maxed out. In fact today's movies are shipping with VC-1 encoded with a less sophisticated encoder than what Microsoft is shipping today. This old encoder was able maintain excellent quality in Serenity at only 19GB or provide 15GB single layer discs of excellent quality like ATL and Rumor Has It.

The new encoder should be able to maintain this quality at about 4Mbps lower avg bitrate if Amir is correct. So I expect that some releases next year for both platforms will look damn good at about 12-14Mbps avg instead of today's 16-18 with high peaks.

HD DVD has limitations but the size of storage isn't one. The bandwidth issue is more troubling IMO.

What I actually expect is that the PQ will get better rather than the compression getting higher and higher and thus the required bandwidth (Mbps) getting lower.

HD DVD has dual layer disks now. Why would they sacrifice bandwidth or quality to shoehorn films onto a single layer disk? I doubt they will.

With more efficient compression methodologies my guess is we will see better and better imagery.

As a point of reference the visual data in 1080i is about 1 Gbps and 1080p about 2 Gbps (of course this depends upon the frame rate). The ITU standard for "studio quality" broadcast using H.264 class compression (they don't define the specific compression standard in their standard, only a class of algorithms) is 110-120 Mbps just for the imagery. (They also allocate 20-30 Mbps for audio and overhead in their standard for a total of 130 - 150 Mbps for "studio quality" HDTV transmission.) Neither HD DVD nor Blu-ray Disk disks will support this today. However, as compression methodologies get better they will eventually get into a range which HD DVD and/or Blu-ray can handle.

There's a long way between the current 10-24 Mbps data rates for imagery and 110-120 Mbps for "studio quality" imagery and 120-150 Mbps for the full data set. But as compression methodologies get better we may get there.