When Will DVD Die?

[blu-mike]

How Many Years Or Days Do U Think DVD Has?

[igotcabada]

at least 10 more years

[Batman1980]

DVD will have a majority share of home media over blu-ray for at least another 3-4 years I think. The gap is closing though, DVD has plateaued for over 2 years and studios are noticing.

[MyBlu-rayBrotherEd]

I dread the day they come out with a new form of media. I've got way too much money invested in this one.

[DonRSD]

dvd's will always be around, thus every player will HAVE to have dvd playback.

i say give it maybe 10 more years.

the best part about dvd compares to vhs is dvd is the same size ad a blu so no need for a clunky machine. (look at dvd & vhs players to see what i mean)
1st the market needs to be saturated with HDTVs, THEn people have to buy blu ray players............at that point will dvd die

what % of households have a dvd player?
what % of households have a bluray player?

[Johnny Vinyl]

Once ANY new media gets adopted by the mainstream, the older media usually dies off very rapidly. However, that does not mean they leave completely. I would say that within 3-4 years Blu-ray will be the mainstream and DVD will dwindle to the point that in 7-8 years they won't be manufacturing any discs in that format.

Who really knows though? I'm sure the studios and their executives are trying to gauge when to cut the cord on DVD as well. And they won't cut it unless they are 100% sure it doesn't hurt their bottom line.

John

[brettallica]

When the majority of consumer PCs have processors suitable and come equipped with enough RAM to utilize the reading — and possibly more so, the writing — of a Blu-ray disc, this is when you'll start to see the trend for DVD popularity veer sharply downward. They're still used heavily in computers; just think about all the installers that come on DVDs. Further, and related to that is, when the cost of Blu-ray technology comes down is when you'll see games and applications being shipped on Blu-ray discs. Think about it: you'll only need one install disc instead of several. That means fewer overall discs, smaller (and cheaper packaging), and so on.

The aforementioned — specifically, the computer world — will send DVD media into obsolescence, since it simply will not be needed anymore. The faster that world progresses, the sooner DVDs will be out. As we've noticed, having stellar and far superior picture and audio quality simply aren't enough to drive that trend — at least not as quickly as some of Blu-ray supporters would like.

Then it'll just be on to the next form of physical media.

[Johnny Vinyl]

Originally Posted by brettallica

When the majority of consumer PCs have processors suitable and come equipped with enough RAM to utilize the reading — and possibly more so, the writing — of a Blu-ray disc, this is when you'll start to see the trend for DVD popularity veer sharply downward. They're still used heavily in computers; just think about all the installers that come on DVDs. Further, and related to that is, when the cost of Blu-ray technology comes down is when you'll see games and applications being shipped on Blu-ray discs. Think about it: you'll only need one install disc instead of several. That means fewer overall discs, smaller (and cheaper packaging), and so on.

The aforementioned — specifically, the computer world — will send DVD media into obsolescence, since it simply will not be needed anymore. The faster that world progresses, the sooner DVDs will be out. As we've noticed, having stellar and far superior picture and audio quality simply aren't enough to drive that trend — at least not as quickly as some of Blu-ray supporters would like.

Then it'll just be on to the next form of physical media.

That a very valid point! Never even thought about the impact regarding the computer industry. Thanks Brett!

John

[brettallica]

Originally Posted by John72953

That a very valid point! Never even thought about the impact regarding the computer industry. Thanks Brett!

John

I put my pants on just like the rest of you — one leg at a time. Except, once my pants are on, I make dynamite posts!

Actually, in all seriousness, that's just one part of what will end DVD's life. There are a ton of other factors, but I do think that's a big one.

[Beta Man]

Originally Posted by DonRSD

dvd's will always be around, thus every player will HAVE to have dvd playback.

i say give it maybe 10 more years.

the best part about dvd compares to vhs is dvd is the same size ad a blu so no need for a clunky machine. (look at dvd & vhs players to see what i mean)
1st the market needs to be saturated with HDTVs, THEn people have to buy blu ray players............at that point will dvd die

what % of households have a dvd player?
what % of households have a bluray player?

How's the new kid doing????? Little tougher to watch movies at night isn't it



I agree , the fact that ALL Blu-ray players play DVDs certainly extends DVDs life.....

I'm in no rush for DVD to go away, and I'm not eagerly hoping it will last forever either....




Surrender to the Flow...............

[OrlandoEastwood]

Probably in another 5 to 10. When I can start picking up kids movies for like a dollar a piece, since the fiancee wants me to have a collection ready when we have kids, then I'll start buying DVDs again. As of now, I'll only buy imports of foreign films on DVD but that's about it.

[bhampton]

If one of my favorite movies never makes it to Blu Ray then I'll keep using my DVD copy till I either can't see anymore or I stop liking the movie.

I'm thinking ... DVD could be alive and well in my home for 40 years.

=Brian

[Beta Man]

Originally Posted by bhampton

If one of my favorite movies never makes it to Blu Ray then I'll keep using my DVD copy till I either can't see anymore or I stop liking the movie.

I'm thinking ... DVD could be alive and well in my home for 40 years.

=Brian

Same here...... With a large DVD collection (or large in "normal" person terms... not in collector's terms) even if every one of my DVDs were available on Blu-ray for $5 each, I wouldn't replace ALL of them..... I'm perfectly content to keep certain things on DVD, as I rarely watch them anyways..... Like Terminator 3..... I really just bought it to "Complete" the set.... much like Caddy shack 2 ..... Just bought it for the heck of it..... I wouldn't replace either of them with Blu-rays even at $5.... and T3 could be a great looking Blu-ray etc.... but I just don't care for the movie, so what's the point.....

I never buy a DVD instead of a Blu-ray, but will still buy some random DVDs if it's an odd title.....

[brettallica]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

Same here...... With a large DVD collection (or large in "normal" person terms... not in collector's terms) even if every one of my DVDs were available on Blu-ray for $5 each, I wouldn't replace ALL of them..... I'm perfectly content to keep certain things on DVD, as I rarely watch them anyways..... Like Terminator 3..... I really just bought it to "Complete" the set.... much like Caddy shack 2 ..... Just bought it for the heck of it..... I wouldn't replace either of them with Blu-rays even at $5.... and T3 could be a great looking Blu-ray etc.... but I just don't care for the movie, so what's the point.....

I never buy a DVD instead of a Blu-ray, but will still buy some random DVDs if it's an odd title.....

Just for your information, T3 is cool on Blu.

[jadedeath]

Once Blu-Ray is making up 80% of the market {like what happened with DVD vs VHS} DVD will stop being produced by all major studios.

Logan

[icyteddy]

I was wondering, as long as we use physical media discs such as CDs, DVDs, and blu rays, I think they will all coexist together until we use a different physical medium to replace the discs.

The main reason why I think DVD will last longer than some may think is backward compatibility. ALL blu ray players will play DVDS, audio CDs hence the longer longevity of DVDs. As long as blu ray exist, so will DVDs, maybe in the near future fewer people will purchase DVDs but it will still be alive.
DVD to me is the cheaper alternatives to Blu ray and not a competitor as some consumer sees it. And if something is cheaper that does the same thing in terms of watching movies, there will be a market for them.

[Uniquely]

I think that DVD will be around until both DVD and Blu-Ray are replaced by some format that will allow us to store our catalogs digitally. The ability to show our entire catalog up on the big screen.... complete with covers and descriptions is something the market really needs. We've all seen people who make custom video intros and trailers for their home theater experience. The ability to view and select from your catalog on the big screen is obviously the next logical step..... and IMO LONG overdue.

Oddly enough.... Blu-Ray already has the capability to give us exactly that IF they are smart. Many existing Blu-Ray players that already have networking capabilities would just need a firmware update that would allow us the option to either watch a blu directly from the disc OR make a full 1080P/lossless audio copy to our home network. IF they go ahead and make this possible before download speeds reach a place that makes streaming and digital downloads a viable competitor (I know... years away but it will happen eventually) ..... it will extend the potential lifespan of blu-ray by YEARS... as there will always be people who want that physical disc.

[Coqui2k]

DVD business down but not out for biggest titles
Universal moves more than 3 million copies of 'Fast & Furious' in one week. Executives are closely watching its sales for signs of the strength of the home entertainment market.
By Ben Fritz
August 7, 2009
When Joy Papa of Silver Lake stopped by Fry's Electronics in Burbank last week, she did something movie executives wish consumers would do more often this year: buy a DVD.

"Every time a new movie comes out that I like, I buy it even if I saw it in theaters," she said while clutching a copy of "Fast & Furious," which had just come out.


The DVD business may be down, but it's not out -- at least for the biggest titles.

Universal Pictures' April release of "Fast & Furious," the first movie this year to earn more than $150 million at the domestic box office, sold and rented a combined total of more than 3 million DVD units in its first week, the studio said.

Hollywood executives are closely watching "Fast & Furious" sales for signs of the strength of the home entertainment market in advance of the crucial fall and holiday season, when the summer's big movies are released on DVD.


The studios have historically depended on DVD sales to push such costly pictures into the black, but consumers have substantially cut back on purchases this year, undermining the economic model that has long supported the movie business.

"All eyes are going to be on these summer hits making it out on DVD this October, November and December," said Wade Holden, an analyst at SNL Kagan who studies the entertainment industry. "The last quarter is going to be very important."

Although overall ticket sales are down a bit from last year, a number of this summer's box office hits, including "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," "The Hangover" and "Star Trek," will soon be crowding the shrinking shelf space that retailers devote to DVDs.

DVD sales for "Fast & Furious," which began July 28, have been below those for 2001's "The Fast and the Furious" and 2003's "2Fast 2Furious," which each sold about 3.5 million DVD units in their first week. And 2006's "The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift," which grossed only $62.5 million at the box office, sold and rented 2 million units its first week.

Although Universal surely isn't ecstatic to see the latest "Furious" movie sell fewer DVD units than its two predecessors that performed similarly at the box office, 3 million is a solid number given overall industry trends.

Total DVD sales were down 13.5% in the first half of the year, even accounting for the fast-growing Blu-ray segment, while rentals were up 8%. Blu-ray sales and digital downloads are rising fast, but still represent a small portion of the overall market.

Universal declined to break down how many of the 3 million units were rentals and how many were sold to customers, and an executive wasn't available for comment.

Given market trends, however, it's likely the rental portion has risen compared to previous films in the series. That would depress overall revenue for Universal, since the profit margins on rentals are lower than for sales.

Studios are highly protective about what DVD sales data they release publicly, especially if the numbers don't cast the most positive light. Warner Bros., for instance, declined to share any information on the performance of "Watchmen," which generated $183 million at the worldwide box office, when it launched on DVD two weeks ago.

Although retailers are cutting down on the amount of shelf space they allocate to DVDs, many Los Angeles-area stores appear to be selling "Fast & Furious" at, or below, wholesale cost.

At Best Buy in West Hollywood, the movie was in the front of the store on the morning it went on sale and cost $15 for the standard disc and $25 for Blu-ray. Typical wholesale prices for new movies are $18 for standard and $25 for Blu-ray. Target in West Hollywood sold the movie for $16 and $26, respectively, while at Fry's in Glendale the DVD cost $15 and the Blu-ray cost only $20.29.

ben.fritz@latimes.com

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...0,628946.story

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

I think that DVD will be around until both DVD and Blu-Ray are replaced by some format that will allow us to store our catalogs digitally. The ability to show our entire catalog up on the big screen.... complete with covers and descriptions is something the market really needs. We've all seen people who make custom video intros and trailers for their home theater experience. The ability to view and select from your catalog on the big screen is obviously the next logical step..... and IMO LONG overdue.

Never happen.

At least for the near future.

As video keeps getting better, there will be something along to replace DVD, which is Blu-Ray, then there will be something to replace Blu-Ray, which will likely be able to play movies in 4k. then whatever comes after that, and after that...

There will always be something bigger and better around the corner, and computers won't be able to keep that many uncompressed movies on their hard drives.

Oddly enough.... Blu-Ray already has the capability to give us exactly that IF they are smart. Many existing Blu-Ray players that already have networking capabilities would just need a firmware update that would allow us the option to either watch a blu directly from the disc OR make a full 1080P/lossless audio copy to our home network. IF they go ahead and make this possible before download speeds reach a place that makes streaming and digital downloads a viable competitor (I know... years away but it will happen eventually) ..... it will extend the potential lifespan of blu-ray by YEARS... as there will always be people who want that physical disc.

And once the downloads catch up to Blu-Ray, the 4k option will be available for disks, and so-on and so-on.

Logan

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

Never happen.


There will always be something bigger and better around the corner, and computers won't be able to keep that many uncompressed movies on their hard drives.





Logan

Sure it will. There are already tons of people who rip their blu's to PC and watch them from there, specifically for the convenience of having a digital catalog. Hard drive space isn't the limiting factor in making this happen. Concerns about copyright protection are the only limiting factor.